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Presentation 101012

Presentation 101012

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Published by annawitkowski88

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Published by: annawitkowski88 on Oct 09, 2012
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11/04/2012

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What Is The Fed’s Plan And Will It Work?
 
The Big Picture Conference, New York CityOctober 10, 2012Long-Term Interest Rates - 1900 to 2011
B
ianco
R
esearch L.L.C.
An
A
rbor
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esearch &
T
rading
A
ffiliated Company
 Independent · Objective · Original
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
 
 
Bianco Research, L.L.C October 10, 2012 2
CFNAI vs ECRI
Comparing The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)To The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Growth Rate
Oct-11-9.40Oct-09, 26.70Nov-08-29.00Jul-10-10.50 Apr-117.38Sept-122.70May-100.31Jan-09-3.66 Aug-12-0.47
-40-30-20-100102030
   J  a  n  -   0   7   J  u   l  -   0   7   J  a  n  -   0   8   J  u   l  -   0   8   J  a  n  -   0   9   J  u   l  -   0   9   J  a  n  -   1   0   J  u   l  -   1   0   J  a  n  -   1   1   J  u   l  -   1   1   J  a  n  -   1   2   J  u   l  -   1   2
   E   C   R   I   G  r  o  w   t   h   R  a   t  e   (   R  e   d   L   i  n  e   )
-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.00
   C   F   N   A   I   3  -   M  o  n   t   h   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   (   B   l  u  e   L   i  n  e   )
 
Bianco Research, L.L.C October 10, 2012 3
Bloomberg Median Q3 2012 U.S. Real GDP Forecast
Bloomberg Median Q3 2012 U.S. Real GDP Forecast
11/18/2011, 2.3%8/11/2011, 3.0%1/12/2011, 2.9%5/9/20122.5%7/13/2012, 2.2%8/10/2012, 1.8%
1.60%1.80%2.00%2.20%2.40%2.60%2.80%3.00%3.20%3.40%
   1   1   /   1   0   /   2   0   1   0   1   2   /   2   0   /   2   0   1   0   1   /   2   9   /   2   0   1   1   3   /   1   0   /   2   0   1   1   4   /   1   9   /   2   0   1   1   5   /   2   9   /   2   0   1   1   7   /   8   /   2   0   1   1   8   /   1   7   /   2   0   1   1   9   /   2   6   /   2   0   1   1   1   1   /   5   /   2   0   1   1   1   2   /   1   5   /   2   0   1   1   1   /   2   4   /   2   0   1   2   3   /   4   /   2   0   1   2   4   /   1   3   /   2   0   1   2   5   /   2   3   /   2   0   1   2   7   /   2   /   2   0   1   2   8   /   1   1   /   2   0   1   2   9   /   2   0   /   2   0   1   2   1   0   /   3   0   /   2   0   1   2
   U .   S .   R  e  a   l   G   D   P   F  o  r  e  c  a  s   t
1.60%1.80%2.00%2.20%2.40%2.60%2.80%3.00%3.20%3.40%
   U .   S .   R  e  a   l   G   D   P   F  o  r  e  c  a  s   t

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