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MumbaiRealEstate PL

MumbaiRealEstate PL

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Published by DealCurry

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Published by: DealCurry on Oct 10, 2012
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06/01/2014

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September
 
21,
 
2012
 
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware thatthe Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Mumbai
 
Real
 
Estate
 
Slackness
 
across
 
segments
     S    e    c     t    o    r     U    p     d    a     t    e
Kejal Mehtakejalmehta@plindia.com+91-22-66322246Pratik Shahpratikshah@plindia.com+91-22-66322256
BSE
 
Sensex
 
v/s
 
Mumbai
 
Real
 
Estate
 
3080130
      S     e     p   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      M     a     r   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      S     e     p   -      1      2
BSE RealtySENSEXMumbai (Ex DB Realty)
 
Source:
 
Bloomberg
 
Stock
 
Performance
 
(%)
 
1M
 
6M
 
12M
 
Sensex
 
2.6
 
4.2
 
7.5
 
BSE
 
Real
 
Estate
 
5.2
 
(5.5)
 
(5.4)
 
Ajmera Realty & Infra (4.2) (12.6) (23.0)Godrej Properties 4.9 (13.8) (16.7)HDIL 1.2 (18.0) (26.1)Hubtown (3.4) (11.2) (14.6)Indiabulls Real Estate 8.4 (21.9) (17.0)Oberoi Realty (0.5) (11.1) 3.5Orbit Corporation (1.7) (18.7) 25.6Peninsula Land 10.6 9.7 (10.0)Phoenix Mills 6.2 (14.5) (13.4)Sunteck Realty (4.1) (12.0) 6.7
 
Sales registerations slip 3
rd
month in a row; 5% MoM
 
Lease registrations too continue on its downward trajectory
 
Rates unchanged, RBI maintains its anti-inflationary stance
 
FDI in retail to provide impetus to leasing as investments kick-in
Slide
 
from
 
June
 
onwards
 
continues
 
The slide in Mumbai sales registrations numbers that started from June hascontinued in August as well with a 5% MoM decline and a 2% YoY decline. Theabsolute decline from the peak of May stands at 13%. The lack of new launches,sticky prices coupled with high interest rates are of no help to home sales. Thestressed affordability equation continues amid high property prices.Lease registrations, though higher by 10% on a YoY basis, on a MoM basis continuedto decline by 6% post the 17% decline witnessed last month. The slowdown incommercial real estate is clearly visible from these numbers.The recent reforms announced by the government as a part of its fiscal consolidationprogram, though unlikely to have an immediate positive impact, are quite critical foran initial boost to the economy. This however, needs to be followed up by severalother policy actions across spheres. The opening up of FDI in multi-brand retail couldprovide impetus to commercial leasing over a slightly long term period asinvestments start to roll.The RBI, in its recent monetary statement, though acknowledged the government’sreforms process, however reiterated its anti-inflationary stance by only cutting CRRby 25bps to infuse liquidity and keeping other policy rates unchanged.The onset of the festive season could see a bit of cheer for residential sales, howeverthese will percolate down to monthly registration numbers post November given thelag in registrations.
 
 
September 21, 2012 2Mumbai Real Estate
Exhibit
 
1:
 
Trailing
 
3
month
 
Sales
 
Registrations
 
in
 
Mumbai
 
5,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,000
      M     a     r   -      0      9      A     p     r   -      0      9      M     a     y   -      0      9      J     u     n   -      0      9      J     u      l   -      0      9      A     u     g   -      0      9      S     e     p   -      0      9      O     c      t   -      0      9      N     o     v   -      0      9      D     e     c   -      0      9      J     a     n   -      1      0      F     e      b   -      1      0      M     a     r   -      1      0      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
       (     n     o     s       )
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
2:
 
Home
 
loan
 
rate
 
versus
 
RBI
 
repo
 
rate
 
2.54.56.58.510.512.5
      D     e     c   -      0      2      J     u     n   -      0      3      D     e     c   -      0      3      J     u     n   -      0      4      D     e     c   -      0      4      J     u     n   -      0      5      D     e     c   -      0      5      J     u     n   -      0      6      D     e     c   -      0      6      J     u     n   -      0      7      D     e     c   -      0      7      J     u     n   -      0      8      D     e     c   -      0      8      J     u     n   -      0      9      D     e     c   -      0      9      J     u     n   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      2
HDFC Bank Home Loan Floating rateRBI repo rate
 
Source:
 
PL
 
Research,
 
Bloomberg
 
 
 
September 21, 2012 3Mumbai Real Estate
Exhibit
 
3:
 
Trailing
 
3
month
 
Sales
 
YoY
 
%
 
growth
 
      1      0      6      %      7      4      %      3      7      %      1      6      %      9      %   -      1      %   -      6      %   -      1      2      %   -      1      9      %   -      2      4      %   -      2      4      %   -      2      5      %   -      2      8      %   -      2      3      %   -      2      1      %   -      2      1      %   -      2      8      %   -      2      6      %   -      2      4      %   -      2      3      %   -      1      8      %   -      1      4      %   -      1      1      %   -      8      %   -      2      %      0      %      2      %   -      1      %   -      2      %
-50%0%50%100%150%200%
      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
4:
 
Trailing
 
3
month
 
leases
 
YoY
 
%
 
growth
 
      1      8      %      1      7      %      2      1      %      1      5      %      1      5      %      1      3      %      1      1      %      0      %      5      %      6      %      1      9      %      2      0      %      1      6      %      1      4      %      8      %1      4      %      1      1      %      1      5      %      1      6      %      3      3      %      2      3      %      1      8      %      5      %      7      %      7      %9      %1      2      %      8      %      7      %
-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%
      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
5:
 
Registration
 
of 
 
Sale
 
Deed
 
agreements
 
in
 
Mumbai
 
-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
       (     n     o     s       )
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
6:
 
YoY
 
%
 
growth
 
in
 
Sale
 
Deed
 
registrations
 
      7      9      %      2      2      %      1      9      %      9      %   -      1      %   -      1      3      %   -      3      %   -      2      0      %   -      2      9      %   -      2      1      %   -      2      2      %   -      3      0      %   -      3      0      %   -      1      %   -      2      7      %   -      3      1      %   -      2      5      %   -      2      2      %   -      2      5      %   -      2      0      %   -      9      %   -      1      3      %   -      1      1      %   -      1      %5      %   -      1      %      3      %   -      6      %   -      2      %
-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%
      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
       (       Y     o       Y     g     r  .       )
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
7:
 
Registration
 
of 
 
Lease
 
Agreements
 
in
 
Mumbai
 
-2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000
      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
       (     n     o     s       )
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
8:
 
YoY
 
%
 
growth
 
in
 
Lease
 
Agreement
 
registrations
 
      2      6      %      1      5      %      2      1      %      1      0      %      1      2      %      1      7      %      3      %   -      1      9      %      3      2      %      7      %      2      0      %      3      4      %      0      %      1      2      %      1      1      %      1      9      %      4      %      2      3      %      2      3      %      5      8      %      1      %      1      0      %      6      %      5      %      1      0      %      1      3      %      1      2      %   -      2      %      1      0      %
-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
      A     p     r   -      1      0      M     a     y   -      1      0      J     u     n   -      1      0      J     u      l   -      1      0      A     u     g   -      1      0      S     e     p   -      1      0      O     c      t   -      1      0      N     o     v   -      1      0      D     e     c   -      1      0      J     a     n   -      1      1      F     e      b   -      1      1      M     a     r   -      1      1      A     p     r   -      1      1      M     a     y   -      1      1      J     u     n   -      1      1      J     u      l   -      1      1      A     u     g   -      1      1      S     e     p   -      1      1      O     c      t   -      1      1      N     o     v   -      1      1      D     e     c   -      1      1      J     a     n   -      1      2      F     e      b   -      1      2      M     a     r   -      1      2      A     p     r   -      1      2      M     a     y   -      1      2      J     u     n   -      1      2      J     u      l   -      1      2      A     u     g   -      1      2
       (       Y     o       Y     g     r  .       )
 
Source:
 
DGR
 
Mumbai,
 
PL
 
Research
 

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