Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Save to My Library
Look up keyword
Like this
5Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Monmouth 2012 Poll Oct 11

Monmouth 2012 Poll Oct 11

Ratings: (0)|Views: 7,477 |Likes:
Published by Celeste Katz

More info:

Published by: Celeste Katz on Oct 11, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

10/18/2012

pdf

text

original

 
 
Please attribute this information to:
 Monmouth University Poll 
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
www.monmouth.edu/polling
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Released:
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Contact:
PATRICK MURRAY
732-263-5858 (office)732-979-6769 (cell)
 pdmurray@monmouth.edu
NATIONAL: ROMNEY EDGES OBAMA IN MONMOUTH POLL
Post-debate: more voters like Romney, give him edge on key issues
The latest
 Monmouth University Poll 
of likely voters in this year’s national presidential raceshows Mitt Romney with a nominal, but statistically insignificant, one point lead over Barack Obama. Asa result of the first presidential debate, more U.S. voters feel they now have a better sense of the GOPchallenger’s plans for the country and give him the edge on key issues.Currently, Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 47% to 46% among likely American voters.This marks a reversal of the 3-point edge Pres. Obama held in the Monmouth University Poll one monthago. If all registered voters cast ballots, Pres. Obama would cling to a tenuous lead of 46% to 43%. Thepoll found older voters to be a key demographic that has shifted toward the Republican nominee.Romney now claims a 52% to 44% advantage among likely voters age 55 and older. In September, thisgroup was split at 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney.“There is no question that the electorate is extremely volatile. Many of the polling shifts we seenow are within the margin of error and reflect just how close this race is,” said Patrick Murray, director of the New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute, adding, “There is no doubt that thecandidates’ performances in the first debate changed the underlying dynamic of this race, benefitting MittRomney across the board.”Nearly 6-in-10 likely voters (58%) report watching the entire first debate and another 25%watched clips or parts of it. Only 7% of likely voters say they heard nothing at all about the debate. Just9% of likely voters report that the debate caused them to have a change of heart about which candidatethey would support. Among this group, 73% now declare themselves for Romney to just 18% forObama. Although this group is small, this shift could represent a net 4 to 5 point swing toward the GOPnominee in the voter preference margin.
 
Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/11/12
2
Importantly, nearly 6 in-10 voters feel they now know more about Mitt Romney’s plans for thecountry as a result of the debate, including 27% who know a lot more and 30% a little more. Bycomparison, less than 4-in-10 say the same about Barack Obama’s plans – 17% feel they know a lot moreand 21% know a little more.Mitt Romney now bests Barack Obama on some key issue areas. The GOP nominee is now moretrusted to handle the economy and jobs by a 49% to 45% margin. One month ago, Obama had a 48% to45% edge on this issue. Romney also has the edge over Obama on the federal budget and national debtby 48% to 44% compared to an evenly divided voter opinion of 47% to 47% in September.The challenger has also erased the incumbent’s earlier advantage on entitlements and foreignpolicy. Regarding Social Security and Medicare, 46% of likely voters trust Obama more to a similar 45%for Romney. In September, Obama claimed a clear 50% to 42% advantage on this issue area. When itcomes to foreign policy, 47% choose Obama to 45% for Romney, which is a marked change fromObama’s 51% to 42% edge just one month ago.It appears that the gain in issue advantage also translates to improved personal ratings for Gov.Romney. Just under half (46%) of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard-bearer compared to 39% who have an unfavorable view. One month ago, Romney’s rating was split at just 41% positive to 40% negative. Pres. Obama’s rating, by comparison, is little changed from a monthago. He now gets a 46% favorable to 45% unfavorable split decision. In September, this stood at 46%positive to 43% negative.“This election is far from over, but it’s hard to deny that Mitt Romney has made gains inpractically every area. This is likely to heighten voter interest in the upcoming debates, starting withtonight’s vice presidential face-off,” said Murray.Fully 6-in-10 voters (60%) say they are very likely to tune in to tonight’s debate between the twoparties’ vice presidential nominees. Another 21% are somewhat likely. Perhaps as a sign of reinvigorated enthusiasm, more Republicans (69%) than Democrats (59%) and independents (55%) saythey are very likely to watch tonight’s debate. A plurality of likely voters expects that Republican PaulRyan (40%) will outperform Democrat Joe Biden (31%) in that match-up.The latest
 Monmouth University Poll
was conducted by telephone with 1,360 likely voters in theUnited States from October 8 to 10, 2012. This sample has a margin of error of + 2.7 percent. The pollwas conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.
 
Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/11/12
3
DATA TABLES
The questions referred to in this release are as follows: 
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
 1. If the election for President were today, would you vote for Mitt Romney the Republican, orBarack Obama the Democrat, or some other candidate? [
IF UNDECIDED 
At this moment, doyou lean towards Mitt Romney or do you lean towards Barack Obama?]
[
NAMES WERE ROTATED 
]
[Includes early voters who have already cast their ballots] 
 
(with leaners)
 
LikelyVoters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE RACERep
 
Ind Dem Male Female18-34 35-5455+ White Black HispanicRomney
47%
93% 44% 8% 49% 46% 37% 49%52% 58% 4% 31%
Obama
46%
5% 41% 89% 44% 48% 54% 44%44% 36% 89% 60%
Other candidate
2%
0% 6% 0% 3% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 0% 3%
(VOL) Undecided
5%
2% 9% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 4% 7% 7%
TREND:
Likely Voters 
 October2012September2012August2012June2012Romney
47% 45% 45% 46%
Obama
46% 48% 46% 47%
Other candidate
2% 3% 4% 3%
(VOL) Undecided
5% 4% 6% 4%
Unwtd N 1360 1344 1149 1152 
 
[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED 
]
2. Is your general opinion of Mitt Romney favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?
LikelyVoters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE RACERep
 
Ind Dem Male Female18-34 35-5455+ White Black HispanicFavorable
46%
89% 42% 10% 46% 45% 36% 46%51% 56% 5% 29%
Unfavorable
39%
5% 39% 71% 38% 40% 44% 38%38% 34% 66% 47%
No opinion
15%
6% 19% 19% 15% 15% 20% 17%11% 10% 30% 24%
TREND:
Likely Voters 
 October2012September2012August2012June2012Favorable
46% 41% 40% 38%
Unfavorable
39% 40% 39% 37%
No opinion
15% 19% 21% 25%
Unwtd N 1360 1344 1149 1152 
 3. Is your general opinion of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?
LikelyVoters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE RACERep
 
Ind Dem Male Female18-34 35-5455+ White Black HispanicFavorable
46%
8% 43% 86% 45% 48% 51% 46%44% 37% 91% 55%
Unfavorable
45%
86% 45% 9% 47% 43% 35% 46%50% 55% 2% 30%
No opinion
8%
6% 12% 6% 8% 9% 13% 8% 6% 8% 7% 15%
TREND:
Likely Voters 
 October2012September2012August2012June2012Favorable
46% 46% 45% 45%
Unfavorable
45% 43% 43% 43%
No opinion
8% 11% 12% 11%
Unwtd N 13601344 1149 115
 
[
QUESTIONS 4 TO 7 WERE ROTATED 
]
 
4. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
LikelyVoters
PARTY ID GENDER AGE RACERep
 
Ind Dem Male Female18-34 35-5455+ White Black HispanicRomney
49%
93% 47% 9% 51% 47% 38% 50%53% 59% 3% 37%
Obama
45%
5% 39% 87% 43% 46% 53% 44%41% 34% 92% 59%
Not sure/Don’t know
6%
2% 13% 4% 6% 7% 9% 6% 6% 7% 5% 4%
TREND:
Likely Voters 
 October2012September2012August2012Romney
49% 45% 45%
Obama
45% 48% 45%
Not sure/Don’t know
6% 6% 10%
Unwtd N 1360 1344 1149 

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->