National Centers for Environmental Prediction:

Entering a New Era in Earth System Prediction From the Sun to the Sea
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director
Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ October 3, 2012

Where Americas Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin
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Outline
The Weatherman is not a Moron Recent Forecast Successes: Contrasting Then and Now NCEPs Role in NOAAs Forecast Process Model Production Suite
Newest Members

Increasing Reliance on Ensemble Forecasts Application of Uncertainty in Hurricane Prediction Forces for Change
Ecosystem Forecasting

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Concluding Remarks

2013 Annual Meeting Taking Predictions to the Next Level
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September 9, 2012

IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER

THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON

From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor.
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Quoted from The Weatherman is not a Moron New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012

The Weatherman is not a Moron

- Nate Silver, New York Times

Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed Progress can be measured/verified in a quantitative way Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products
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Recent Forecast Successes

Contrasting Then and Now

The Advance from Subjective to Model-Based Forecasts

1970s Limits of Predictability
6 days 4 days 2 days 1 day 12 hours

Gale-Force Winds Of Hurricanes Hurricane-Force Winds Heavy Snow

6 hours

Thunderstorms
1 hour

abandon research that uses weather sequences generated in a computer as bases for deduction about the real atmosphere. C.S. Ramage, 1976: Prognosis for Weather Prediction. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 57, 4-10.
10000 Km

Cressman, 1970
1 Km 10 Km 100 Km 1000 Km

Distance

1970s

1980s

1990s
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Despite this opinion, research continued on real-time numerical prediction models, which have now become the central core of the modern forecast process.

Rapidly Developing Pacific Storm: Not Predicted

13-14 November 1981

Reed and Albright, MWR, 1986

10/11/12

January 3-7, 2008 West Coast Rain/Snow Event

Snowfall in CA mountains of up to
10 feet 00Z 5 January, 2008

Rainfall amounts 2-10

inches Localized flooding caused by heavy rains at lower elevations

2 Weeks Prior to Event

MJO Update: issued by
Climate Prediction Center December 24, 2007 Some potential exists for a heavy precipitation event tied to tropical convection by week 3 along the west coast of the US

6 Days Prior to Event 4 Days Prior to Event

Hazards Assessment Issued December 28, 2009

HPC 48-h QPF ending 00Z 6 Jan Issued 00Z 1 Jan Day 4-5 forecast

April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak

Tornado Tracks 12Z April 3 12Z April10 1974 4,

One of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the 20th Century (330 fatalities) Involved over one-quarter of the country 148 tornadoes in 13 states Potential for severe weather was recognized only the afternoon before event Magnitude of event not realized until evening news April 3
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14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak

60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time) NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 13 minutes 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 3 days before the event

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Presidents Day Storm 18-20 February, 1979

1830Z 19 Feb 1979

22 inches of snow buries Washington D.C. area Rapid cyclogenesis off the coast Not predicted even hours in advance 12

February 4-11, 2010: Snowmageddon

February 4-7, 2010: massive winter storm paralyzes mid-Atlantic region
Locations in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia recorded more than 30 inches of snow. Washington DCs two-day total of 17.8 inches ranked as the fourth highest total storm amount in history. Philadelphias 28.5 inches ranked as the second highest amount Baltimores 24.8 inches ranked as its third highest storm total amount

Strong blizzard during February 9-11 affects same areas still digging out from earlier storm.
Produced as much as 14 inches in the D.C. area, 20 inches in Baltimore, 17 inches in New Jersey, more than 27 inches in Pennsylvania, and 24 inches in northern Maryland.

Storm system predicted 7+ days in advance; potential for unprecedented heavy snow (up to 3 feet) 3-5 days in advance States implement COOP plans, airlines cancel flights, retail industry pre-stocks shelves

Feb 4-7, 2010

Feb 9-11, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Seven day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Six day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Five day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Four day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Three day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

Two day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Forecasts Provided by Hydromet Prediction Center

Surface Analysis

One day forecast Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

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Impacts
Snowmageddon
States declare emergency days before snow Airlines cancel thousands of flights at least a day in advance Stores adjust to optimize retail sales entire week before the storm
Low to no impact on GNP1

Federal disaster declared; facilitates snow removal, and Some studies (Liscio Reports from 1993-1996) show that major faster recovery!
1

NE snowstorms in the 1990s negatively impacted economic indices for months after the event, including GNP.

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Define NCEPs Role in NOAAs Seamless Suite

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NCEPs Role in NOAAs Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC)

- Process - Assimilate - Predict

Products & Forecast Services

Central Guidance Local Offices

NCEP
IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

Respond & Feedback

Distribute

Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center

Storm Prediction Center

Vision: The Nations trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

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Test Beds
Service Science Linkage with the Outside Community
EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Climate Test Bed Joint Hurricane Test Bed Hydrometeorological Test Bed Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA Aviation Weather Test Bed linked with EMCs Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

CPC NHC HPC SPC SWPC AWC OPC

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What Does NCEP Do?

From the Sun to the Sea
Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather - International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts - Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation - Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
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Model Production Suite

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Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts begins with NCEP numerical prediction models
Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise

Global Observing System Computers (supercomputers, work staGons) Data AssimilaGon & Modeling/Science
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Three Major Components of Todays Operational Numerical Prediction Enterprise

Observations
~2 billion/day 99.9% remotely sensed, mostly satellites from

Model
Earth System model; coupled Global resolution (27km) North American resolution (4km)

Computer
2012
Primary/backup15 minute switchover 73 trillion calc/sec IBM Power 6

2013
146 trillion calc/sec IBM iDataPlex Linux Intel/
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Global Observing Critical for Successful Numerical Weather Prediction

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NOAAs Model Production Suite

Climate Forecast System
GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice
~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9%

Oceans

Hurricane
GFDL HWRF

Coupled

HYCOM
WaveWatch III

Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware

NOS OFS

Regional DA

Global Data AssimilaJon

Global Forecast System

Regional NAM

Dispersion

WRF NMMB

ARL/HYSPLIT

Severe Weather
Regional DA

Space Weather ENLIL

North American Ensemble Forecast System

GFS, Canadian Global Model

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMB

WRF NMM/ARW WorkstaGon WRF

Air Quality
NAM/CMAQ
For eca st

NOAH Land Surface Model

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Rapid Refresh for AviaJon

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NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather

NCEP Model Perspective
Years Outlook Guidance Months Seasons Forecast Uncertainty

Forecast Lead Time

Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage

Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination

2 Week 1 Week Days Hours Minutes

Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Forecast Hurricane GFDL, WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Enlil Space Wx Model Dispersion Models for DHS
Benefits

Ocean Model
HYCOM Wave Watch III GLOFS Bays Chesapeake, N. GoM Tampa, Columbia R, Delaware
Environment Ecosystem Health

Space Operations

Emergency Mgmt

Hydropower

Life & Property

Fire Weather

Commerce

Energy Planning

Reservoir Control

Recreation

Agriculture

Maritime

Aviation

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Computing Capability
reliable, Gmely and accurate

Current computers
IBM Power6 73.1 trillion calculations/sec 2 billion observations/day 27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Next generation computer: by Oct 2013

IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux 143 trillion calc/sec Primary: Reston, VA Backup: Orlando, FL
2011

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

10 0
JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

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Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Newest Members of the Model Production Suite

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Space Weather: Enlil

First large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model to be put into operations Jointly developed by scientists with NOAA, NASA, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Boston University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and George Mason University. Provide 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storms Provides perspective on structures 1-27 days in advance Reduces error in geomagnetic storm onset time from 12 hrs to 6 hrs
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Enlil Forecast from September 28, 2012 valid October 1, 2012

Missed Earth impact time by only 47 minutes

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Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP. Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP)
Led by Navy/FSU

Attributes
1/12th degree horizontal resolution Run once per day out six days 32 vertical hybrid layers

Earth System Modeling Framework compatible Provide boundary conditions for coastal models Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011 Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity

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Surface Water Salinity Forecast Guidance Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System

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Surface Water Temperature Forecast Guidance Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System

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Increasing Reliance on Ensemble Forecasts

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Increasing Reliance on Ensembles The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts

Multi-model ensembles now used across entire spectrum
Climate: NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) now used within EUROPSIP Partnership (ECMWF, UKMet, MeteoFrance)

Medium Range: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Short Range: Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) Mesoscale

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NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

Attribute CFS v1.0 Operational Since 2004
200 km 2003: 200 km/64 levels Humidity based clouds

CFS v2.0 Operational Since March 2011

27 km 2010: 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag MOM-4 fully global x deg. Assim depth 4737 m 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Daily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model 30 minutes Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background 24/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6)

Multi-model Ensembles (MME)

International MME (Operational) NCEP UKMet ECMWF MeteoFrance

Analysis Resolution Atmosphere model

Ocean model

MOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m 2-level OSU LSM No separate land data assim Climatology Daily Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background 15/month seasonal output

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation Sea ice Coupling Data assimilation

National MME (Research) NCEP GFDL NCAR GSFC COLA U.Miami/RSMAS U.CO/CIRES Princeton

Reforecasts

Increasing Reliance on Ensembles The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts

Medium Range: NCEP GFS/GEFS now combined with Canadian and (soon) the Navy NOGAPS model NAEFS

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Increasing Reliance on Ensembles The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts

Short Range: NCEP SREF used extensively for prediction of extreme events, aviation, precipitation
SREF Forecasts for Feb 5, 2010: Snowmageddon

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Increasing Reliance on Ensembles The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts

Mesoscale: Mesoscale ensembles now used in tornado forecasting April 27-28, 2011
~190 tornadoes, ~311 fatalities Deadliest outbreak since March 21, 1932 Outlook issued 5 days prior; Moderate Risk issued 3 days prior; High Risk issued 16 hours prior Coordination calls initiated w/FEMA and state emergency managers 3 days in advance POD 96% for tornadoes occurring in SPC watches Average warning lead time 24 min

SSEO 7 model Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity 46

10AM 11PM CDT April 27, 2011

Application of Uncertainty in Hurricane Prediction

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Hurricane Prediction Skill

NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Error (nautical miles) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
1970-1986 trendline 1987-1996 trendline 2003-2011 trendline

Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical Models

Advances Related to USWRP 1997-2001 trendline

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year
Better Model Physics and Resolution 48 Improved Data Assimilation

White cone 2003 Brown cone - 2010

1:08 PM

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Hurricane Irene Track Forecast

August 20, 2011 August 27, 2011

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Hurricane Irene Precipitation

Precipitation Forecast Loop Precipitation Verification Loop

August 26 29, 2011

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Forces for Change

NRC: Completing the Forecastfocus on probabilistic forecasts to address uncertainty impact-based forecasts Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite
SREF NAEFS Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) More rapid access to hyperspectral data Data assimilation implications
Model Region 2

ESMF-based System

Global/Regional Model Domain

Model Region 1

Entering the JPSS era

All models run within ESMF/NEMS

Models run concurrently Coupled/interoperable

Model data accessed through NOAA Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS) Operational Earth System model enable more explicit hydro, coastal, ecosystems and health applications
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Extending Prediction Models into Nontraditional Areas

Coupled Models: Atmosphere Ocean Land provide opportunities for ecosystem prediction: beach/water quality, health, critters Regional Earth System Modeling
Coupling models and linking products

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Ecosystem Prediction
Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay Generated since 2002 in a research mode Important for water management and recreational purposes Put into operational production suite April, 2012
Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, 54 C. quinquecirrha, on October 4, 2012

* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers

La Nina (2011)

NAO

Pattern less predictable with cross polar flow and phasing troughs
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2011 La Nina Impacts Western Gulf Region

Wild Fires Dust Storms MS River Flooding

Severe Drought

Agricultural and Livestock Losses

Hypoxia Dead Zone HAB Outbreak Oyster Harvest Closed

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors
5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) OAR Air Resources Laboratory

Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists Includes 464 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit
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Move Schedule
February 2, 2012 data center setup began April 7, 2012 Building operations transferred to new owner Shadow forecasts commenced June 6 July 30, 2012 began phased move-in
Front offices Non-operational groups

August 2012 dual operations August 24, 2012 move completed October 15, 2012 ribbon-cutting

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Concluding Remarks
We have made revolutionary progress in weather forecasting especially for extreme events Forecasts increasingly based on multi-model ensembles: next revolution in numerical weather prediction NCEP is
Strategically aligned with NOAAs seamless suite of products from the Sun to the Sea Working with NOAA and larger coastal/ocean communities on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather); success is based on interdisciplinary partnerships A critical transition agent in the NOAA research to operations process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery (R2O O2R); working with national and international communities Moved into NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in August 2012 opens up a new era for entire enterprise
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Preparing for the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

Austin, TX, January 4-9, 2013

2013 AMS Annual Meeting theme:

Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Todays Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Projections Designed to build off interdisciplinary partnerships Applications include coastal, health vectors, ecosystem prediction

An important developing partnership involving the atmospheric-ocean sciences-bio/chem communities Completing the last mile to expand beyond todays forecasts points to a physical science-social science intersection/overlap, especially for mitigation and adaptation Decision Support and Services Issue: How to keep academic/research communities fully engaged with the AMS Focus on the Teacher, Student and Young Professional Conferences 60

THANK YOU
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Appendix

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Fukushima Support
Plume Density Animation for First 54 Days after Initial Release

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Forecaster (HPC) Skill

Annual Threat Scores: 1.00 Inch

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