MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE: TIM MURPHY FOR CONGRESS ROBERT BLIZZARD / NEIL NEWHOUSE RECENT POLLING DATA IN PENNSYLVANIA CD-18 OCTOBER 11, 2012

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania Congressional District 18 on behalf of the Tim Murphy for Congress Campaign. The poll was conducted October 9-10, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY DATA Tim Murphys lead over Larry Maggi is overwhelming 60%-26%. Congressman Murphy leads Democrat Larry Maggi by a very wide margin among the districts likely voters (60%-26%). Murphy leads Maggi among Seniors (62%-22%), Independents (64%14%), and is even tied among registered Democrats (42%-42%). Further, even though Maggi is well-known in Washington County, thats not translating into much support for him on the ballot. In Washington County, Murphy leads Maggi 56%-31%. While the Congressmans image is very positive, Maggis is just one-to-one. Tim Murphys image among voters in the district is 60% favorable-21% unfavorable, while Larry Maggis image is just 15% favorable-10% unfavorable. In fact, among registered Democrats who make up over half of the 18th district Murphy has a significantly more positive image (50%-28%) than Maggi (19%-9%). BOTTOM LINE Given Tim Murphys very positive image and strong support on the ballot, the Congressman is in terrific shape heading into the final weeks of this campaign.

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

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