M E M O R A N D U M
To: McCaskill Campaign LeadershipFrom: Kiley & CompanyRe: Tracking Survey FindingsDate: October 16, 2012________________________________________________________
We completed another tracking survey last night, based on interviews with 601 Missouri voters who are likely to cast a ballot in November’s general election. These results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%.The partisan breakdown of this sample is 42% Republican; 36% Democratic; and 22% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The six-point Republican advantage in party identification is very consistent with previous polls.
Senator McCaskill has expanded her lead and is now up,52% to 38%.
Senator McCaskill now leads Congressman Akin by 14 points –up from the nine-point margin we saw in our tracking survey two weeksago:
10/15
9/30 9/10
McCaskill
52% 50% 48%
Akin
38 41 42
Other
2 2 2
Not sure
8 7 7McCaskill continues to enjoy near-unanimous support among
Democrats
(95% to 4%), while Akin holds an 80%-to-8% among
Republicans
. Senator McCaskill enjoys a 24-point advantage among
Independents
(56% to 32%).McCaskill has maintained a big lead among
women
(56% to35%), and she now holds a modest, yet discernible, lead among men
Kiley & Company
2
(49% to 42%). Over the last two weeks she has improved her positionwith all major segments of the male electorate.
McCaskill leads Akin by wide margins in several key comparisons.
Voters give McCaskill the advantage in virtually every area of directcomparison, including:
•
By a 13-point margin, voters feel that McCaskill will
do more for the middle class
(McCaskill 48%, Akin 35%)
•
By a 16-point margin, voters feel that McCaskill
really cares about people like them
(McCaskill 48%, Akin 32%)
•
By a 12-point margin, voters see McCaskill as the candidate who
shares their values
(McCaskill 47%, Akin 35%)
•
In a negative comparison, voters say by a 20-point margin that Akinis
too extreme
(Akin 48%, McCaskill 28%)McCaskill has held her own or improved her position on each of these keymeasures since our last survey.
Perceptions of Akin are growing less favorable.
Voters are much more likely to say that their opinions of CongressmanAkin have grown less favorable (50%) rather than more favorable (21%), basedon what they have heard or read in the last two weeks. Another 23% say theiropinions have not changed.By contrast, voters are more likely to say that their opinions of McCaskillhave grown more favorable (38%) rather than less favorable (33%). A quarter(24%) say their opinions have not changed.Taken together, these findings indicate that the public continues to seeAkin as being mired in controversy.
Conclusion
Our survey results show that Senator McCaskill is continuing to improveher position as the campaign enters the final three weeks. She has increased herlead to solid double-digit range, and is now clearly above the key 50% threshold.Congressman Akin has been unable to make any gains among the critical groupof Independent voters.
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