M E M O R A N D U M
To: McCaskill Campaign LeadershipFrom: Kiley & CompanyRe: Tracking Survey FindingsDate: October 16, 2012 ________________________________________________________
We completed another tracking survey last night, based on interviews with 601 Missouri voters who are likely to cast a ballot in
November’s general election.
These results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%.The partisan breakdown of this sample is 42% Republican; 36% Democratic; and 22% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The six-point Republican advantage in party identification is very consistent with previous polls.
Senator McCaskill has expanded her lead and is now up,52% to 38%.
Senator McCaskill now leads Congressman Akin by 14 points
–
up from the nine-point margin we saw in our tracking survey two weeksago:
10/15
9/30 9/10
McCaskill
52% 50% 48%
Akin
38 41 42
Other
2 2 2
Not sure
8 7 7McCaskill continues to enjoy near-unanimous support among
Democrats
(95% to 4%), while Akin holds an 80%-to-8% among
Republicans
. Senator McCaskill enjoys a 24-point advantage among
Independents
(56% to 32%).McCaskill has maintained a big lead among
women
(56% to35%), and she now holds a modest lead among men (49% to 42%).Over the last two weeks she has improved her position with all majorsegments of the male electorate.
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MO-Sen Kiley for Claire McCaskill (Oct. 2012)
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