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P. 1
MT-Sen PPP for LCV (Oct. 2012)

MT-Sen PPP for LCV (Oct. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 17, 2012
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10/17/2012

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Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
From: Tom J
e
n
s
e
n
,
Dir
ec
tor of Publi
c
Poli
c
y PollingTo: Int
e
r
e
s
t
e
d Parti
e
s
 Subj
ec
t: T
e
s
t
e
r
c
ontinu
e
s
to hold a 2 point l
e
ad in Montana S
e
nat
e
ra
ce
 Dat
e
: O
c
tob
e
r 17
th
,
2012
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Montana finds Jon Tester leading Denny Rehberg
 E\SRLQWVIRUDWKLUGSROOLQDURZ+H¶VDWWRIRU5HKEHUJZLWK/LEHUWDULDQ
Dan Cox pulling 7%. Our Montana surveys both last week and in September foundTester with a 45/43 advantage.Key findings from the survey include:-Tester has a 45/41 advantage among independent voters and is benefiting from anextremely unified party base with 91% of Democrats planning to vote for him comparedto only 1% who are siding with Rehberg. Tester is also winning over 9% of theRepublican vote.-Rehberg continues to be very unpopular with Montana voters. Only 40% approve of the
 MREKH¶VGRLQJLQWKH+RXVHWRZKRH[SUHVVGLVDSSURYDO+H¶VDWDVSUHDGZLWK
independent voters.-
7HVWHU¶VOHDGLVEHLQJVSDUNHGLQSDUWLFXODUE\ODUJHOHDGVDPRQJZRPHQ
) andvoters under 30 (45/37).-
%DUDFN2EDPDWUDLOV0LWW5RPQH\LQWKH3UHVLGHQWLDOUDFHLQWKHVWDWH7KDW¶V
 pretty much unchanged from a 52/41 spread last week.PPP interviewed 806 likely Montana voters on October 15
th
and 16th on behalf of theLeague of Conservation Voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5%
 
October 15-16, 2012
Survey of 806 likely voters
October 15-16, 2012
Survey of 806 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Montana Survey Results
Q1
The candidates for President are DemocratBarack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you votefor?43%
Barack Obama
................................................
53%
Mitt Romney 
....................................................
4%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q2
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator JonTester’s job performance?47%
 Approve
..................
49%
Disapprove
..............
4%
Not sure
..................
Q3
Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Denny Rehberg’s jobperformance?40%
 Approve
..................
52%
Disapprove
..............
8%
Not sure
..................
Q4
The candidates for US Senate are DemocratJon Tester, Republican Denny Rehberg, andLibertarian Dan Cox. If the election was today,who would you vote for?46%
Jon Tester 
.......................................................
44%
Denny Rehberg 
...............................................
7%
Dan Cox 
..........................................................
3%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q5
Who did you vote for President in 2008?47%
John McCain
...................................................
47%
Barack Obama
................................................
6%
Someone else/Don't remember 
......................
Q6
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.54%
Woman
...........................................................
46%
Man
.................................................................
Q7
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.31%
Democrat 
........................................................
36%
Republican
......................................................
33%
Independent/Other 
..........................................
Q8
If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.87%
White
..............................................................
13%
Other 
...............................................................
Q9
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.12%
18 to 29
...........................................................
24%
30 to 45 
...........................................................
44%
46 to 65 
...........................................................
20%
Older than 65 
..................................................
 
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 806 likely voters
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 806 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'tremember Obama/RomneyBarack ObamaMitt RomneyUndecided 43%
6% 82% 18%
53%
90% 15% 63%
4%
3% 4% 19%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'tremember Tester ApprovalApproveDisapproveNot sure 47%
13% 82% 30%
49%
83% 13% 65%
4%
4% 4% 5%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'tremember Rehberg ApprovalApproveDisapproveNot sure 40%
71% 9% 49%
52%
21% 85% 37%
8%
8% 7% 15%
 Base2008 VoteJohnMcCainBarackObamaSomeone else/Don'tremember Tester/Rehberg/CoxJon Tester Denny RehbergDan CoxUndecided 46%
11% 83% 28%
44%
80% 8% 53%
7%
7% 7% 9%
3%
2% 2% 10%

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