Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
2Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Macro Update: Close call on recession in Finland

Macro Update: Close call on recession in Finland

Ratings: (0)|Views: 126 |Likes:
Published by SEB Group
With continued international weakness and the outlook for major export markets (Sweden, Germany, Russia) revised downward, it will be a close call whether Finland manages to avoid a new recession or not, SEB’s economists say in a new research note. They now forecast growth of 0.3 per cent in 2012, 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.0 per cent in 2014.
With continued international weakness and the outlook for major export markets (Sweden, Germany, Russia) revised downward, it will be a close call whether Finland manages to avoid a new recession or not, SEB’s economists say in a new research note. They now forecast growth of 0.3 per cent in 2012, 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.0 per cent in 2014.

More info:

Published by: SEB Group on Oct 19, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

10/19/2012

pdf

text

original

 
 
Finland: GDP fell in Q2, weak second half of 2012
FRIDAY
19 OCTOBER 2012
 
Weak global demand is taking its toll on Finnish growth (Chart 1).
In the first quarter of2012 GDP grew by 0.9%, followed by a fall of 1.1% in the second quarter.
Withcontinued international weakness and our outlook for major export markets (Sweden,Germany, Russia) revised downward, it will be a close call whether Finland manages toavoid a new recession (two consecutive quarters of falling GDP) or not.
 
In the second quarter exports, household consumption and capital spending allfell
compared to the first quarter. Weak household consumption was expected, as thefirst quarter was boosted by unusually high new car registrations due to tax changes.During the past year, Finnish exports have performed worse than Germany and Sweden.
 
Leading indicators have weakened for most sectors of the economy in recentmonths
(Chart 2) and performance during the second half of the year will remain weak.Manufacturing output has basically been unchanged for a year, and given the weakinternational trend it is difficult to find a trigger for a near term increase (Chart 3).
 
Although a weak trend during the rest of 2012 was already in the pipeline according tothe August
Nordic Outlook 
, performance since then has been weaker than expected. Weare revising our
GDP forecast to 0.3% in 2012, 1.3% in 2013 and 2.0% in 2014
.
 
Daniel Bergvall
 Economic Research+46 8 763 85 94
Key data
Percentage change
2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP 2.7 0.3 1.3 2.0Unemployment
*
7.8 7.8 8.3 8.3Inflation 3.3 3.2 2.3 2.1Government fiscal balance** -0.5 -0,8 -0.5 -0.2
* Per cent of labour force, ** Per cent of GDPSource: SEB

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->