G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: House Majority PAC Garin-Hart-Yang October 19, 2012

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Survey Results From The IL 11th CD

From October 16-18, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a representative sample of 402 likely general election voters in the 11th CD of Illinois (the margin of error is 4.9 percentage points). Our survey results indicate that this seat is a prime pick-up opportunity for the Democratic Party, with Democrat Bill Foster narrowly ahead of incumbent Judy Biggert:
Initial Trial Heat
% Bill Foster Judy Biggert Undecided 49 45 6

Foster has improved his image and name ID among voters in the district, while Judy Biggert has seen a sharp increase in voters who have negative feelings toward her. Fosters feeling thermometer is 28% positive and 24% negative, while Biggerts ratings are 35% positive, 34% negative (compared to 33% positive and 21% negative in August). Importantly, Foster has consolidated Democratic support (87% to 10%), and leads by 49%-39% among Independents. And Foster will likely be helped by top-of-ticket dynamics, as President Obama currently leads Mitt Romney by 51% to 46%. With less than three weeks to go before November 7th, the IL 11th CD is a true toss-up seat that Democrats have an excellent opportunity to pick up.