1 Kimball Political Consulting, LLC MA Statewide October 18-21, 2012
Kimball Political ConsultingMassachusetts Statewide SurveyData collected October 18, 19, 20 and 21, 2012Executive SummaryMethodologySurvey InstrumentFrequencies and Cross tabulations
Executive Summary
Brown’s Attacks Boomerang, Warren Takes Lead in MA Senate Race
October 22, 2012 (Springfield, MA) According to a new survey, Elizabeth Warren has taken a 2.5 point lead over Senator Scott Brown (48% to 45.5%) with about7% of voters still undecided. This is the first time in the series of Kimball Political Consulting tracking polls on this race that Warren has the lead.
According to the pollster, Spencer Kimball, “Brown’s attacks on Warren regarding her heritage as a Cherokee Indian and her in
volvement in the asbestos lawsuitshave actually
boomerang and hurt his own image, not his opponents”. This is supported in Brown’s own favorable ratings dropping from 58% t
o 49% and hisunfavorable ratings increase from 34% to 41% from the last poll conducted by Kimball (9/20); Warren had a 51% favorable rating and currently has a 52%favorable rating.The regional breakdown suggests that for Warren to win the race she needs a strong turnout in the Boston Metro area where she receives 59% of the vote.Females continue to break for Warren 50% to 42% while males are breaking for Brown in much smaller numbers (49% to 46%).Warren still has some work to sure up her base of supporters with 80% of Democrats voting for her, while Independents continue to break 2:1 in favor of Senator Brown (60% to 32%).President Obama maintains a strong 16 point lead in the Commonwealth (55% to 39%). The President may provide a coattail effect for Warren as he holds a 58%favorable opinion compared to Mitt Romney who is at 42% in the State where he governed from 2002-2006.The most important issue facing Massachusetts voters is jobs at 31%, followed by the deficit at 25% and Healthcare at 19%.The issue of medical marijuana holds a strong 17 point advantage, but only 54% support the ballot question with 37% opposing it (9% are undecided).
2 Kimball Political Consulting, LLC MA Statewide October 18-21, 2012The statewide survey of 761 Massachusetts likely voters was conducted over 4 days from October 18 through October 21, using automated telephone interview.The margin of error is +/- 3.48 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available on the www.kimballpc.com
website.
Methodology (Caller ID)
All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in the state using a probability sampling of N=761
registered “likely” voters. The Margin of
Error for the sample is +/- 3.48% with a confidence level of 95%.The survey was administered using an Automated Telephone Interviewing (ATI) system. The ATI system allows data to be entered directly into a computerized
database through the numbers on interviewee’s phone, providing a highly reliable system of data collection.
A random sample of registered voters statewide was purchased from Aristotle Voter Lists, a leading supplier of voter lists to the survey research industry.A screening question was asked to all participants regarding how likely there were to vote in the November 6, 2012 General Election. Only those who answered
“very likely” were included into the sample.
The survey was conducted by Kimball Political Consulting between October 18, 19, 20, and 21.There was a response rate of 21% for this survey.
Data Analysis
The results presented in this report include univariate and bivariate analysis of the data. Frequency distributions for each item included on the questionnaire areshown in the tables. In all cases, cross-tabulation results are also shown. This type of bivariate analysis examines differences between sub-groups of the overallpopulation.The purpose of these statistical tests is to determine whether or not the observed difference between sub-groups in the sample is due to sampling error orwhether it is due to a real difference in the population. When the results are statistically significant, it strongly suggests that the observed difference betweensub-groups found in the sample is due to a real difference in the population, and not due to sampling error.Survey data was not weighted based on political, gender and geographical demographics of the district because the sample itself properly reflected theparameters of Massachusetts in the following demographics.
3 Kimball Political Consulting, LLC MA Statewide October 18-21, 2012
What is your party affiliation?
Frequency Percent Valid PercentCumulativePercentValid Democrat 300 39.4 39.4 39.4Republican 86 11.3 11.3 50.7Independent 375 49.3 49.3 100.0Total 761 100.0 100.0
What is your Gender?
Frequency Percent Valid PercentCumulativePercentValid Female 390 51.2 51.2 51.2Male 371 48.8 48.8 100.0Total 761 100.0 100.0
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