October 22, 2012 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM:Bruce Donisthorpe MANZANO STRATEGIES RE: NM GOVERNOR APPROVAL RATING (UPDATED FOR CURRY COUNTY)

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 515 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout Curry County, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on October 2, 2012, between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.2% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINES: Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the job performance of New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez? FAVORABLE: 64% UNFAVORABLE: UNDECIDED: 18%

18%

Margin of Error: 4.2% 515 Likely Voters, Curry County, NM

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS Gov. Martinezs approval was at 51% in the Curry County areas when we last surveyed the her job popularity. Given the drop from our previous survey of October, 2011, we decided to go back into Curry County during the 2012 General Election campaign period to do an in-depth survey with more participants so we could have a sample with an error margin of 5% or lower. Results were scaled to fit the Curry County voter performance metrics of 39%-Democratic, 50%-Republican and 11%-Independent. Gov. Martinezs overall 64% job approval level was bolstered by her strong support among Republican households: o GOP likely voters gave her a 78% favorable rating, in contract to an unfavorable rating of 9% (more than a 6-1 positive margin). About 12% of Republican households were undecided in the survey. GOP men (81%-7%) gave the Guv a tad bit higher ratings than the women (77%-11%) in our survey. About 12% of men and women were undecided. GOP Anglo households gave the Governor a solid 82%-8% fav/unfav rating, as compared to GOP Hispanic voting households which came in at 71%-4%.

DEM voters had smaller margins of favorable ratings for the Governors job performance, as compared to Republicans. o DEM likely voters gave the Governor a 47% favorable rating, while 23% gave her an unfavorable rating, with about 20% of D households undecided. DEM women supported the Guv at a 48%-23% margin with 29% undecided, while DEM men were much more evenly divided at 44%41%, with 14% undecided. DEM Anglo LV households supported Martinezs job performance by a 53%-27% margin with 20% undecided, while DEM Hispanic LV households expressed unfavorable ratings of the Governors job performance by a 50%-21% margin.

INDP voters generally expressed solid support of the Governors performance in office. o INDP LVs favored the Governors performance by a 68%-14% margin, with about 18% undecided.

INDP women favored the Guv by a 61%-15% margin with 23% unsure, while INDP men supported the Governor by a 75%-13% rate, with about 12% undecided.

Looking at the Governors ratings by voter ideology: o Progressive LVs were tied at 43%-favorable, 43% unfavorable, with 14% unsure. Liberal LVs were 44%-favorable, 30% unfavorable, with 26% unsure. Moderate LVs were 66%-favorable, 12% unfavorable, with 22% unsure. Conservative LVs were 79% favorable, 9% unfavorable with 12% unsure.

o o

Among age groups: o The Governor ran the strongest among senior citizens, with a 68%14% fav/unfav rating; while 18-49 LVs supported her at a 64%-18% margin. 50-64 LVs gave the Guv a 58%-24% fav/unfav rating margin.

BOTTOM LINE: The Governor is running strong among Republican and Independent LVs and is doing well enough among DEM LVs to secure an overall positive rating from about 2/3 of Curry County voters at this point. o Key factor to watch is the Governors performance among DEM Hispanic voters, which has already dipped for the Governor, to a 21% favorable rating.