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State Senate 29 Voter Survey Summary

State Senate 29 Voter Survey Summary

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Published by Joe Monahan

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Published by: Joe Monahan on Oct 24, 2012
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08/20/2013

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October 23, 2012 TO:JOE MONAHANFROM:Bruce DonisthorpeMANZANO STRATEGIESRE: OCT. 23
RD
STATE SENATE, DISTRICT 29 VOTER SURVEY SUMMARY &HIGHLIGHTS
METHODOLOGY 
Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodologicalstandards to 227 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registeredhouseholds with known voting history in general elections from throughout StateSenate District 29 in Bernalillo and Valencia counties in New Mexico. Surveys wereconducted using this method on October 23, 2012, between 7 pm and 9 pm.As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line toensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such asage, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 6.4%with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey.
TOP LINES:
Question: If the election for State Senate, District 29 was held today and thecandidates were Michael Sanchez, the Democratic candidate and David C. Chavez,the Republican candidate, for which candidate would you support?
SANCHEZ48%
CHAVEZ46%
UNDEC 6%Margin of Error: 6.4%227 Likely Voters, St. Sen. Dist. 29
 
ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
State Senator Michael Sanchez holds a close lead in his race for re-electionwith 2 weeks to go until election day, November 6
th
. Our survey toniteshowed the race to be in play and between the lines, as the Senator holds a2 point lead in a survey which has a 6 point margin of error. That meansthis race is uncediced at this point and truly a toss-up.
BALLOT RACE
. As is the case with the Presidential race throughout NewMexico and the Nation, each candidate has built up a sizeable lead amonghis own party’s likely voters:
o
Sanchez leads among DEM LV’s by a 64%-31% margin with 5%undecided.
o
Chavez leads Republican LV’s by a 72%-21% margin with 7%undecided.
o
Sanchez holds a tenuous 48%-44% lead among INDP LV’s with 8%undecided.
GENDER
. There is a definite gender gap in this race as Women voters tendto prefer Sanchez, while Men trend toward Chavez.
o
Sanchez captured the Female vote by a 53%-42% margin, with 5%undecided. The Senator built up that lead by racking up big marginsamong DEM Women (72%-27%) and INDP Women (50%-44%).Chavez led among Female R LV’s by a 66%-24% margin.
o
Chavez captured the Male vote by a 52%-40% margin, with 8%undecided. The State Representative racked up a huge marginamong R LV Men by a 76%-18% margin, while tying Sanchez withINDY LV Men at 46%-46%. Sanchez led DEM LV Men by a 54%-38%margin, as Chavez overperformed among DEM men, as compared tohis showing among DEM women in this survey.
ETHNICITY 
o
Hispanic voters favored Sanchez by a 59%-36% margin. Chavez isrunning stronger among Hispanic candidates than most Republicansthroughout the State in legislative races (most run at 25%). Sanchezran particularly among DEM LV Hispanics, as expected, by a 72%-24% margin, while the Senator took the lead among INDY LVHispanics in the survey by a 56%-44% margin. Chavez led R LVHispanics by a 57%-33% margin.

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