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Elway Poll 102412

Elway Poll 102412

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Published by: Casey Michel on Oct 24, 2012
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Copying Not Permitted
 ©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 12 
24 OCTOBER 2012
 
© THE ELWAY POLL
is intended for the exclusive use of its subscribers. The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of ElwayResearch, Inc.
McKenna Takes Lead Among Likely Voters
DESCRIBE THE CHOICE OF CANDIDATES
INSLEEVOTERSMcKENNAVOTERS UNDEC
BOTH STRONG
24% 22% 21%
NEITHER STRONG
13% 6% 22%
ONE CLEARLYBETTER
58% 66% 18%
NO OPINION
4% 7% 38%
MAIN REASON CANDIDATES SELECTED
McKENNA INSLEE
Philosophy* 24% Democrat 30%
Experience /Knowledge
17% Specific Issues* 18%Republican 18% Dislike McKenna 16%Dislike Inslee 11% Philosophy 7%Integrity 4% Record/Experience 5%
*conservative/ fiscal policy/smaller gov’t /“issues”* women’s issues /heath care/environment / social issues
W
ithtwoweekstogountilelectiondayandballotsalreadyinvoters’hands,RepublicanRobMcKennahasre‐takentheleadoverDemocratJayInsleeintheraceforGovernorbya47‐45%marginamonglikelyvot‐ers.McKennaledearlierintheyear,Insleehasledsincemid‐summer,andMcKennahasbeenre‐gaininggroundoverthelasttwomonths.With8%stillundecidedandamarginoferrorof±5%,thereisstillplentyoflifeleftinwhatisconsideredtobethehottestgovernors’raceinthecountry,
The
Elway 
Poll 
switcheditssampleforthisfinalpollfromallregisteredvotersto“likelyvoters,”definedhereasvoterswhocastballotsinatleast1oftheprevious4elections.Theraceishighlypartisan.Inanopen‐endedquestion,4in10ofeachcandidates’supporterscitedeither“politicalparty”or“philosophy”asthemainreasonfortheirsupport.

AmongMcKennasupporters,24%citedhisphilosophy(e.g.,conservative,fiscalpolicy,smallergovernment,orgeneralstandsonissues),and18%citedpoliticalparty.

AmongInsleesupportersthedecisionwasmorepurelypartisan:30%saidtheysupportedhimbecauseheisaDe‐mocratand7%citedreasonsrelatedtohisphilosophy.

Insleesupportersweremorelikelytonamespecificissues,suchastheenvironment,healthcare,educationandwomen’sissues(18%namedoneofthoseissues);

McKennasupportersweremorelikelytocitetheircandi‐date’sexperienceandknowledge(17%),thanwereInsleesupporters(5%)

Dislikeoftheotherguywasasignificantfactorforbothcandidates:16%ofInsleevoterssaidthemainreasontovoteforhimwasdislikeofMcKenna;and11%ofMcKennavoterssaidthemainreasontovoteforhimwasdislikeofInslee.McKennasupportersseemsomewhatmorecomfortablewiththeircandidatethanwereInsleesupporters.Whenaskedtocharacterizethechoicebeforethem:66%ofMcKennavoterssaidtheircandidatewas“clearlybetter”thanInslee,whilefewer(58%)ofInsleesupporterssaidhewasclearlythebettercandidate.13%ofInsleevoterssaidthat“neithercandidateisstrong”;only6%ofMcKennavotersmadethatassessment.Amongundecidedvoters,whowilldecidethiselection:21%saidbothcandidatesarestrong;22%saidneitherisastrongcandidate;18%saidoneis“clearlybetter”butdidnotsaywhichoneandwerestillundecidedanyway;38%hadnoopinionaboutthechoiceofcandidates.It’seasytoseewhytheyareundecided.
VOTE FOR GOVERNOR: FEB—OCTOBER
This survey interviewed Likely Voters. Previous surveys sampledall registered voters.
45423641473640434445
FEBJUNEJULYSEPTOCT
McKENNAINSLEE
 
©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 12 
Copying Not Permitted
 
2
AuditorLt. GovernorSecretary of State
Brad Owen (D) leads among:

Democrats (81-3%)

Independents (35-25%)

King County (47-24%)

Eastern WA (45-35%)
Bill Finkbeiner (R) leads among:

Republicans (71-8%)

North Puget Sound (41-30%)
 
Attorney General
Bob Ferguson (D) leads among:

Democrats (78-8%)

King County (52-29%)
Reagan Dunn (R) leads among:

Republicans (74-5%)

Eastern WA (44-29%)

Puget Sound (non-King) (39-29%)
Even among

Independents (30% RD; 29% BF)
Kathleen Drew (D) leads among:

Democrats (71-4%)

Women (36-30%)

King County (42-20%)
Kim Wyman (R) leads among:

Republicans (75-5%)

Independents (26-23%)

Men (39-32%)

Outside King Co (41-30%)
 Troy Kelly (D) leads among:

Democrats (72-1%)

King County (42-16%)

Far West (40-32%)
James Watkins (R) leads among:

Republicans (65-4%)

Eastern WA (37-26%)

North Puget Sound (40-26%)
 
Republicans Gain as Women Shift Away from Democrats
A
fterDemocratsopenedupgroundlastmonthinall4ofthehotly‐contestedracesforstateoffices,Repub‐licansgaineditbackthismonth,andthensome.Thestoryofthechangeistheshiftofwomenvoters:Lastmonth52%ofwomenidentifiedasDemocratsand20%asRepublicans.Thismonth,only39%saidDe‐mocratand31%saidRepublican.Thesampleframewasdifferent(likelyvotersthistime,allvoterslasttime),butthisisaremarkableshift,outdoingasimilarshiftseeninnationalsurveys.Thelargenumberofundecidedvotersmeansthatunlesstheybreaksignificantlyinthesamedirection,itcouldalongelectionnight(andbeyond)beforewinnersareknowninseveralstateraces.
 
282736
463325
264038
JUNESEPTOCT
DUNNUNDECFERGUSON
3234
2832
4034
SEPTOCT
WYMANUNDECDREW
2729
3837
3634
SEPTOCT
WATKINSUNDECKELLY
2732
2926
4342
SEPTOCT
FINKBEINERUNDECOWEN
 
Copying Not Permitted
 ©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 12 
3
I-502: Marijuana LegalizationI-1240: Charter SchoolsR-74: Same-Sex Marriage
4949
12126
39374551
JULYSEPTOCT
APROVEUNDECREJECT
2628
171617
25243548
JULYSEPTOCT
DEF FAVPROBUNDECPROBDEF OPP
3026313348
3710128
3330322944
JULY '11JAN '12JULYSEPTOCT
DEF FAVPROB FAVUNDECPROB OPPDEF OPP
I-1185: Tax Limitation
OppositiontoReferendum74hasgrownoverthepastmonthwhilesupporthasstayedatvirtuallythesamelevelsinceJuly.Earlierconfusionovertheballottitleappearstohaveabated.Still,4%ofvotersappeartobevotingtheoppositeoftheirintention—2%oneachside,soitbalancesout.InJuly,asmanyas15%ofrespondentsmayhavebeenvotingcontrarytotheirintention.

SupportforR‐74goesdownwithage—from60%amongvotersunder35to40%amongvot‐ersover65.
Supportandoppositiontothismeasurehasbeenstableformorethanayear.Afterdippinglastmonth,oppositiontoI‐502,whichwouldlegalizemarijuana,returnedtothelevelithadbeeninJanuary.

Aswithsame‐sexmarriage,supportformari‐juanalegalizationgoesdownwithage—from55%amongvotersunder35to37%amongvot‐ersover65.
45485443444650484438
AlthoughI‐1185supportappearstohaveerodedsincemid‐summerandhasdroppedbelow50%,thetax‐limitationmeasurescon‐tinuestoleadby19points,andoppositionhasneverbeenabove33%.

ItissupportedbyamajorityofRepublicans(69%),andapluralityofIndependents(41‐34%),while

Democratsaredivided(38%yes/40%no).
3737
1417211011202230
49
JULYSEPTOCT
DEF FAVPROBPROBDEF OPP
5133305649 30
SupportandoppositionlevelsforCharterSchoolsisalmostidenticaltolastJuly.I‐1240hasnevertopped50%,buthasmaintaineda9‐11pointleadthroughoutthecampaign.

Supportgoesupwithincome,from45%ofthosemakingunder$100,000ayearto60%ofthosemakingoverthatamount.

ItwassupportedbymostRepublicans(61%)andIndependents(52%);opposedbyabaremajorityofDemocrats(50%).
374638484735
S
upportandoppositionlevelshavebeenremarkablystableforall4ofthehigh‐profilemeasuresonthisyear’sballot.All4areleadingandhavebeenhoveringataround50%supportsinceJuly.Atleastacoupleofthecampaignsarespendingheavilynow,andthevisiblecampaignsappeartobelopsided.Thequestionwillbehowmuchamediablitzattheendofthecampaigncanmovenumbersthathavebeenstableayear.Asalwaysinthecaseofballotmeasures,wereadtheofficialballottitleandsummarytosurveyrespon‐dentsandaskedhowtheywouldvote“ifyouwerefillingoutyourballottoday.”Priortothismonth,wehadaskeda“softer”question:“howareyouinclinedtovoteasthingsstandtoday?”
All 4 Ballot Measures Continue to Teeter on the Brink 

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