AnalysisPharos Research Group did a live call poll of 810 likely voters in Ohio fromOctober 19, 2012 through October 21, 2012. The breakdown was 396 men, 414women, representing a 49%/51% split. There were 288 self-identified Democrats,288 self-identified Republicans and 234 Independents representing a 35/35/29split.The numbers read like this: in the general election for President, 49.88% of respondents indicated an intention to vote for President Barack Obama, while
45.19% indicated a preference for Republican nominee Willard “Mitt” Romney.
In the United States Senate race, 52.22% prefer the Democratic, incumbent SenatorSherrod Brown, while 41.11% chose Republican nominee, State Treasurer JoshMandel.In the Presidential race, while the margin is inside of the margin of error, the leadfor the incumbent is significant and when compared to the trend line in publicpolling, is persistent. Clearly this indicates an advantage for the incumbent and wewould rate this race as leaning to the Democrat at this stage in the race.In the Senate race, the incumbent has a substantial lead over his lesser knownchallenger. Because this is Ohio, and the state has trended Republican over thepast three decades, the race bears watching, but would stay Likely Democratic if we were rating it.