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Short Note Ukraine: Russian gas imports and transit in figures

Short Note Ukraine: Russian gas imports and transit in figures

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It seems as if the new gas contract will not be revealed completely to the general public, as it is a confidential one. Anyway, yesterday more details about purchase volumes were disclosed by Naftogas officials. Thus we can have a better overview of what we can expect in 2009. According to our estimates, Ukraine will purchase 52bn cm of gas in 2009 for $12.4bn, which includes 40bn cm for consumption and 11bn cm of technical gas which are purchased by Naftogas, and 13.5bn cm which is the quota of Gazpromsbyt, Gazprom’s daughter company in Ukraine. According to our estimates, Ukraine will receive $1.8bn as a fee for gas transit in 2009. Thus, this will mean additional pressure on Ukraine’s current account balance of -$2.9bn in 2009.
It seems as if the new gas contract will not be revealed completely to the general public, as it is a confidential one. Anyway, yesterday more details about purchase volumes were disclosed by Naftogas officials. Thus we can have a better overview of what we can expect in 2009. According to our estimates, Ukraine will purchase 52bn cm of gas in 2009 for $12.4bn, which includes 40bn cm for consumption and 11bn cm of technical gas which are purchased by Naftogas, and 13.5bn cm which is the quota of Gazpromsbyt, Gazprom’s daughter company in Ukraine. According to our estimates, Ukraine will receive $1.8bn as a fee for gas transit in 2009. Thus, this will mean additional pressure on Ukraine’s current account balance of -$2.9bn in 2009.

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Published by: International Business Times on Jan 22, 2009
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03/30/2012

 
 
Erste Group – Short Note
Page 1
 
It seems as if the new gas contract will not be revealed completely to the general public, as it is aconfidential one. Anyway, yesterday more details about purchase volumes were disclosed by Naftogasofficials. Thus we can have a better overview of what we can expect in 2009. According to our estimates,Ukraine will purchase 52bn cm of gas in 2009 for $12.4bn, which includes 40bn cm for consumption and11bn cm of technical gas which are purchased by Naftogas, and 13.5bn cm which is the quota of Gazpromsbyt, Gazprom’s daughter company in Ukraine. According to our estimates, Ukraine will receive$1.8bn as a fee for gas transit in 2009. Thus, this will mean additional pressure on Ukraine’s currentaccount balance of -$2.9bn in 2009.
Russian gas imports to Ukraine
 
Price, $/tcm Amount,bcmTotal,$mn
Total,UAHmn
Total Ukraine 2007
130.0
50.6 6 572.6
33 060.1
Total Ukraine 2008
179.5
54.0 9 700.7
49 667.6 
2009:0) Gas in storage, as of 21.01.09
179.5 13-15 
1) Purchase by Naftogas in 2009:
1Q2009
announced yesterday =>
 
360.0 5.0
1 800
15 300.0 
2Q2009
270.0 10.5
2 835
24 097.5 
3Q2009
219.0 12.0
2 628
22 338.0 
4Q2009
162.0 12.5
2 025
17 212.5 Technical gas (*already imported in 2008 by RosUkrEnergo)
153.9 11.0 1 693
14 389.7 Purchases into the storages
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A
Total Naftogas 2009
51.0 10 981
93 337.7  Average-weighted mean 215.3
2) Purchase by Gazpromsbyt
228.8 13.5
3 089
26 254.8 
Total purchase by Ukraine 2009 52.0 12 377
105 203
Russian gas transit via Ukraine
 
Price, $/tcmper 100kmAmount,bcmTotal,$mn
Total,UAHmn
Transit 2008 1.7 119.6
2 033
10 410.0 
Transit 2009
1.7 106.4
1 810
15 381.2 
Transit 2010 2.4 - 3.0 117.1
2 927
21 661.4
Transit fee - Import payments Gap
Total,$mn
Total,UAHmn
2008 DIFF (Transit - Import)
-7 668
-39 258 
2009 DIFF
(Transit - Import)
-10 567
-89 822 
Additional pressure on Ukraine's current account balance in 2009 -2 900
-50 564
Source: Erste Bank estimates & calculations, Naftogas, Gazprom
* price in UAH was recalculated via 2007: 5.03, 2008: 5.12, 2009: 8.50, 2010: 7.40 real and estimated average USD/UAH rates
Short Note – January 22, 2008
 
Ukraine:
Russian gas imports and transit in figures

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