Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
3Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Down to the wire: AEI Political Report, October 2012

Down to the wire: AEI Political Report, October 2012

Ratings: (0)|Views: 1,749|Likes:
* Late deciders: In 2008, 4 percent of voters did not decide which presidential candidate to support until Election Day – and they preferred Obama over McCain. We explore how late deciders have cast their vote since 1984.

* Demographic groups: In this issue, we examine how two dozen groups have voted in presidential elections going back to 1974. Some of the highlights:

* Starting in 1980, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men.

* Since 1984, married voters have supported the Republican candidate more than voters who are not married.

* Those who identify as independents have sided with the winning candidate in each of the past ten elections except in 1976 and 2004. In 2008, they were 29 percent of all voters.

* In 1972, union households voted narrowly for Richard Nixon, but these households have voted for Democratic candidates ever since. In 2008, they were about a quarter of the electorate.

* ID laws: Most polls show that large majorities of Americans support voter identification requirements. While Pennsylvania’s voter ID law won’t be enforced in this election, 64 percent of Pennsylvanians supported it in a recent Philadelphia Inquirer poll.
* Late deciders: In 2008, 4 percent of voters did not decide which presidential candidate to support until Election Day – and they preferred Obama over McCain. We explore how late deciders have cast their vote since 1984.

* Demographic groups: In this issue, we examine how two dozen groups have voted in presidential elections going back to 1974. Some of the highlights:

* Starting in 1980, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men.

* Since 1984, married voters have supported the Republican candidate more than voters who are not married.

* Those who identify as independents have sided with the winning candidate in each of the past ten elections except in 1976 and 2004. In 2008, they were 29 percent of all voters.

* In 1972, union households voted narrowly for Richard Nixon, but these households have voted for Democratic candidates ever since. In 2008, they were about a quarter of the electorate.

* ID laws: Most polls show that large majorities of Americans support voter identification requirements. While Pennsylvania’s voter ID law won’t be enforced in this election, 64 percent of Pennsylvanians supported it in a recent Philadelphia Inquirer poll.

More info:

Categories:Types, Research
Published by: American Enterprise Institute on Oct 25, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

12/04/2012

pdf

text

original

 
Volume 8, Issue 9 • October 2012
A M
O N T H L Y
P
O L L
C
O M P I L A T I O N
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org
Down to the Wire: When Voters Made Their Decisions, 1984–2008
The data below come from the exit polls of voters leaving the polls. While the question wording has changed over time,the surveys reveal that large majorities of voters make up their minds before the last month of the campaign. There is noclear pattern in terms of candidate support for those who make up their mind at the very end of the campaign.
Q: When did you decide who to vote for?
Time of vote(percent of electorate)—————————————————Vote for————————————————2008ObamaMcCain
Today (4%)50%45%Last three days (3) 4752Last week (3)4850Last month (15)5443Before that (74)5247
2004BushKerry
Today (5%)45%52%Last three days (4) 4255Last week (2)5148Last Month (10)4454Before that (78)5346
2000BushGore
Last three days (11%)45%48%Last week (6)4448Last month (13)4548Before that (69)5048
1996ClintonDolePerot
Since last weekend (11%)35%40%23%After the debates (18)493613Before then (71)51435
1988BushDukakis
Today (7%)39%58%Yesterday (3)4058Over the weekend (3)3462Last week (5)3861Before last week (82)5346
(continued on the next page)
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org
2
1984ReaganMondale
Today (5%)38%61%Yesterday (2)4257Over the weekend (2)4060Last week (4)4555Before last week (88)6040
Source: National Election Pool: 2008, 2004; Voter News Service: 2000;
LA Times
: 1996; ABC News, 1988, 1984. 1992 data unavailable.
The polls below show greater strength of support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney than for other candidates goingback to 1992. And the number of potential switchers is low compared to the elections in the early 1990s.
Q: Do you support ______ . . . ? (Question asked of supporters of each candidate.)
————————————Support strongly————————————RomneyObama
31%201232%
McCainObama
21200835
BushKerry
32200428
BushGore
25200022
DoleClinton
17199625
Bush, Sr.Clinton
20199226
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.
Q: Do you think there is a . . . ?
Non-Romney supporters who sayNon-Obama supporters who saythere is a chance they would there is a chance they wouldsupport Romneysupport Obama
8%20125%
McCainObama
720087
BushKerry
520046
BushGore
1020009
DoleClinton
11199610
Bush, Sr.Clinton
11199211
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.
(continued from the previous page)
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org
3
The Past is Prologue
In the next several pages of this issue, we look at how various groups in the electorate have voted over time. We beginwith men and women. Starting in 1980, a political gender gap emerged, and in each election since then, more womenthan men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men. In 2008, they were 53 percent of all voters.Since 1984, married voters have been more Republican than voters who are not married. The category “not married,”which includes voters who are single, widowed, or divorced, has been more Democratic.
010203040506070
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
3662504857736374157412143441053445549486238423
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage)Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage)Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)
01020304050607080
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
376150484774544495045175443743514856435637542
010203040506070
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
38425740204446953425747516241442
NA NANA
010203040506070
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
47534651195731938584065335230574
NANANA
MenWomenMarriedNot Married

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->