MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FROM: Patrick Gaspard, Executive Director, Democratic National Committee DATE: October 25,

2012 RE: GOP Ground Game Bluff

Now that early voting has begun in many battleground states, Republicans are in full spin mode trying to overplay their hand and shape a narrative that puts them ahead of Democrats in the ground game contest. To that end, the RNC released a misleading memo Tuesday on where the Presidential contest stands when it comes to early voting. Like Mitt Romneys tax plan the early vote numbers from the GOP just dont add up. For example, when the GOP talks about early voting they are referring only to early vote in person and do not account for the fact that Democrats currently enjoy solid leads when early vote by mail is also included. In Iowa data shows Democrats leading 45% to 30% in vote by mail requests, ahead by 18 points in returned mail ballots and outperforming Republicans by 15 points in total ballots cast. Polling from NBC/WSJ and PPP show Democrats ahead 35 points and 29 points respectively among Iowans who have already cast a ballot either in person or by mail. When the truth just isnt in their favor, Republicans are choosing to make up numbers that fit the false narrative showing Mitt Romney ahead. Republicans contend that Democrats have seen a 65% drop this year in our margin among Iowa early voters when compared to a similar period in 2008, resulting in a net swing for Republicans of 1.65%. Left unexplained by the GOP is how a 65% collapse in Democratic margin would result in only a meager 1.65 percentage point gain for Republicans. But the GOP math isnt just fuzzy in Iowa. Public polling from several battleground contests all refute GOP assertions that they are outperforming Democrats in early voting. Every single poll gauging support among those that have voted early and requested ballots in battleground states show President Obama and Democrats ahead as is evidenced by the charts below:

Polling Among People Who Say They Have Already Voted (WI: Also Includes Those Who Say They Will Vote Early) State FL IA IA NV NV OH OH OH OH OH WI Pollster Mellman PPP NBC/WSJ/Marist PPP ARG Time PPP CBS/Quinnipiac SurveyUSA Rasmussen NBC/WSJ/Marist Dates Oct 18-21 Oct 18-19 Oct 15-17 Oct 22-24 Oct 19-22 Oct 22-23 Oct 18-20 Oct 17-20 Oct 20-22 Oct 23 Oct 15-17 Obama/Romney 50/45 64/35 67/32 61/39 57/43 60/30 66/34 54/39 58/39 53/43 64/35 Margin +5 +29 +35 +22 +14 +30 +32 +15 +18 +10 +29

Total Ballots Cast (Mail and In-Person) State CO FL IA MI* NC NV OH* VA* WI* Total D 120,429 362,384 169,162 258,572 412,144 92,248 408,788 91,468 45,734 1,960,929 R 126,026 413,644 113,576 129,679 243,750 70,752 355,388 76,434 19,157 1,548,406 Difference R +5,597 R +51,260 D +55,586 D +128,893 D +168,394 D +21,496 D +53,400 D +15,034 D +26,577 D +412,523

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote. D and R in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.

Absentee Ballot Requests State CO FL IA MI* NC NV OH* VA* WI* Total D 692,288 1,008,962 192,821 596,206 58,185 29,344 624,078 82,426 84,069 3,368,379 R 701,317 1,046,119 129,771 282,780 105,780 29,106 615,075 75,900 37,386 3,023,234 Difference R +9,029 R +37,157 D +63,050 D +313,426 R +47,595 D +238 D +9,003 D +6,526 D +46,683 D +345,145

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote. D and R in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008. CO Among non-midterm voters, Democrats lead Republicans 33% to 23% in mail ballot requests (211,069 to 145,021), 37% to 28% in mail ballots cast (18,678 to 13,857), 36% to 28% in in-person ballots cast (2,884 to 2,294) and 37% to 28% in total ballots cast (21,562 to 16,151) The GOPs traditional absentee ballot request advantage is down 86% compared with this time four years ago from 261,479 to just 37,157 a Democratic gain of D +224,322 ballots Note that in 2008, Democrats won Florida by 3 points (D 51.0 to R 48.2) Democrats lead Republicans in early voting: D 169,162 (47%) vs. R 113,576 (32%) Democrats lead is up 14% compared with this time four years ago (increased from D +48,581 to D +55,586) Democrats lead Republicans on every metric and with every group ballots requested, ballots cast, in-person, mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters Note that in 2008, Democrats won Iowa by 9.5 points (D 53.9 to R 44.4)

FL IA MI Precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 are out-voting Republican precincts by a 67% to 33% margin (D 258,572 vs. R 129,679) In ballot requests, Obama precincts lead GOP precincts 68% to 32% (D 596,206 to R 282,780)

NC NV Democrats lead Republicans on every metric: mail ballots requested (D 29,344 to R 29,106), mail ballots returned (D 12,861 to R 12,294), in-person early voting (D 79,387 to R 58,458) and total ballots cast (D 92,248 to R 70,752) There is no party registration in Ohio, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of registered voters have already cast ballots. In GOP counties, only 7% of registered voters have cast ballots Voters from precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots (53%) in 2012 compared with just 355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this time four years ago (D +29,706) There is no party registration in Virginia, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts In counties that Obama won in 2008, 3.4% of registered voters have already voted. In GOP counties, only 2.8% of registered voters have voted so far Obama precincts have cast 91,468 ballots (54%) to date compared with just 76,434 (46%) for GOP precincts Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 30% in early voting (D 412,144 to R 243,750)

OH VA -

Even for a campaign that said it wouldnt be dictated to by facts, the RNC is hard-pressed in making a credible case that they are winning the ground war in this election. From the very beginning of this campaign, Democrats have made clear we would invest heavily in standing up the largest grassroots effort in history to mobilize our supporters to the polls and lay out the strong contrast between President Obamas vision for a stronger middle class and the top down failed economic policies of the past Republicans and Mitt Romney want to return the country too. We understood that our success resided in grassroots people power not the special interest dominated campaign of our opponents. With just 12 days to go until Election Day our investment is paying off and the American people are choosing to support President Obamas vision for a stronger middle class built from the middle out and not the top down.