TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

DSCC Paul Harstad October 26, 2012 Casey Rebounds and Holds Double-Digit Advantage Over Smith

A survey of 810 likely voters in Pennsylvania completed October 24th show that Democratic Senator Bob Casey is leading Republican Tom Smith by a 12% margin by 52% to 40% with 8% undecided. This survey confirms that Casey has rebounded from a possible slight dip last week to the same 12% lead he held earlier in the month. Likely Voters In Pennsylvania Bob Casey Tom Smith Casey margin October 21-24 n = 810 52% 40% +12 October 14-18 n = 606 49% 41% +8 October 8-11 n = 802 52% 40% +12

These three surveys indicate that whatever slight erosion Casey suffered the prior week has been erased and Casey has rebounded to majority support while Smith barely breaks the 40% support threshold. Despite a sizeable gender gap, Casey currently leads both among men (+4%) and among women (+19%).

Our latest Pennsylvania survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a crosssection of 810 likely voters with live calls from October 21 to 24, 2012. The trial heat results cited above were asked near the start of the survey, after only standard questions such as party preference and candidate popularity. The results are subject to a statistical margin-oferror of plus-or-minus 3.5%. Based in Colorado, Harstad Research is the pollster for five U.S. Senators.