M E M O R A N D U M
To: McCaskill Campaign LeadershipFrom: Kiley & CompanyRe: Tracking Survey FindingsDate: October 26, 2012 ______________________________________________________________________
We completed our latest tracking survey last night. We interviewed arepresentative sample of 600 Missouri voters likely to vote in the November 6
election,employing the same methodology we have used in all of our opinion research for thecampaign. These results have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%The partisan breakdown of this sample is 45% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 17% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The seven-point Republicanadvantage in party identification is very consistent with previous polls.
Senator Claire McCaskill continues to maintain a solid, double-digit leadover Todd Akin, by a margin of 53% to 39%.
These results are essentially unchanged from our tracker of last week, when wereported a McCaskill lead of 52% to 38%.
7 8One percent are voting for another candidate, and the remaining 7% are stilluncommitted. Also consistent with our previous tracker, McCaskill has the nearly unanimoussupport of Democrats (93% to 6%), and a solid, 24-point margin among Independents(56% to 32%).McCaskill enjoys a 20-point lead among women, but she is also ahead by 8points among men.