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NY-19 POS for Chris Gibson (Oct. 2012)

NY-19 POS for Chris Gibson (Oct. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 29, 2012
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12/04/2012

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1
TO:
INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM:
PATRICK LANNE – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
SUBJECT:
RECENT POLLING DATA
DATE:
OCTOBER 26, 2012As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a poll of 400 likelyvoters in New York’s 19
th
Congressional District. The party registrationbreakdown of the poll mirrors the district’s actual registration: 34%Republican and 31% Democrat with the remainder either unaffiliated orregistered in other parties. Each county is represented based on its proportionof actual registration. The survey was conducted on October 24-25, 2012 andhas a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9%. The purpose of this memo is toreview the key findings of the poll.
KEY FINDINGS
1.
Chris Gibson owns a double-digit lead.
Congressman Gibson leadshis Democratic opponent, Julian Schreibman, by ten points, 49%-39%.
2.
Gibson leads with women.
Gibson holds a nine-point lead overSchreibman among female voters, 44%-35% - even after the Democrats’misleading “war on women” attacks.
3.
Schreibman’s image is a net negative.
Just 18% of voters have a“favorable” impression of Julian Schreibman while 21% of voters havean unfavorable impression. In the Albany media market, Schreibman’simage is nearly two-to-one negative, 17%-30%.
The Bottom Line
With 11 days left, Congressman Gibson continues to hold a double-digit leadover Julian Schreibman. With the clocking running out and his false attacksfailing to gain traction, be on the lookout for a new wave of phony attack adsfrom Mr. Schreibman and his Washington allies.

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