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VOTING INTENTION
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 48% 47% *% 3% 2% All Registered Voters (RV) 51% 41% 1% 3% 5% Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV) 89% 6% 1% 1% 3% 11% 83% 1% 2% 2% 36% 44% 2% 9% 9%
Obama & Romney Vote Share Daily Data: 2012 Conventions to present (Likely Voters only) Obama
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
10/10/12 10/12/12 10/14/12 10/16/12 10/18/12 10/20/12 10/22/12 10/24/12 10/26/12 10/28/12 8/27/12 8/29/12 8/31/12 9/10/12 9/12/12 9/14/12 9/16/12 9/18/12 9/20/12 9/22/12 9/24/12 9/26/12 9/28/12 9/30/12 10/2/12 10/4/12 10/6/12 10/8/12 9/2/12 9/4/12 9/6/12 9/8/12
Romney
Wouldn't vote/None/Other/DK/Ref
Q3. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No 22% 78% Democrats (RV) 25% 75% Republicans (RV) 21% 79% Independents (RV) 15% 85%
[IF Yes at Q3, ASK Q4] Q4. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=261 for All RVs; 128 for Ds; 105 for Rs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV) 58% 39%
3%
Independents (RV)
[IF No at Q3, ASK Q5] Q5. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot?
(n=1,016) Yes I plan to vote at an early voting location Yes I plan to mail in an early voting ballot Yes I plan to mail in an absentee ballot No I do not plan to vote early PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK All Registered Voters (RV) 18% 5% 3% 74% Democrats (RV) 23% 6% 4% 67% Republicans (RV) 13% 5% 3% 78% Independents (RV) 18% 2% 2% 79%
IPSOS ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION # of # of Electoral states College Votes Likely Obama 13 166 Lean Obama(Toss-up) 7 78 Toss-up (too close to call) Lean Romney Toss-up) Likely Romney 8 8 15 104 74 116
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. Sample size 2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2
Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
1 Bayesian