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2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.29.12

2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 10.29.12

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Published by: Casey Michel on Oct 29, 2012
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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking: 10.29.12 
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 25-29, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,277 Americanregistered voters and 806 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Likely voter model adjusted to include allrespondentswho have voted, as of 10.15.12. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using acredibility interval . In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limitedtocoverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one halfof one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
All LIKELYVoters (LV)All RegisteredVoters (RV)Democrats(RV)Republicans(RV)Independents(RV)Barack Obama for president and JoeBiden for vice president, the Democrats48%51%89%11%36%Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryanfor vice president, the Republicans47%41%6%83%44%Wouldn’t vote*%1%1%1%2%
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama forpresident and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vicepresident, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
 
VOTING INTENTION
None / Other3%3%1%2%9%Don’t know / Refused2%5%3%2%9%
1
Obama & Romney Vote Share Daily Data: 2012 Conventions to present (Likely Voters only)
05101520253035404550
       8        /       2       7        /       1       2       8        /       2       9        /       1       2       8        /       3       1        /       1       2       9        /       2        /       1       2       9        /       4        /       1       2       9        /       6        /       1       2       9        /       8        /       1       2       9        /       1       0        /       1       2       9        /       1       2        /       1       2       9        /       1       4        /       1       2       9        /       1       6        /       1       2       9        /       1       8        /       1       2       9        /       2       0        /       1       2       9        /       2       2        /       1       2       9        /       2       4        /       1       2       9        /       2       6        /       1       2       9        /       2       8        /       1       2       9        /       3       0        /       1       2       1       0        /       2        /       1       2       1       0        /       4        /       1       2       1       0        /       6        /       1       2       1       0        /       8        /       1       2       1       0        /       1       0        /       1       2       1       0        /       1       2        /       1       2       1       0        /       1       4        /       1       2       1       0        /       1       6        /       1       2       1       0        /       1       8        /       1       2       1       0        /       2       0        /       1       2       1       0        /       2       2        /       1       2       1       0        /       2       4        /       1       2       1       0        /       2       6        /       1       2       1       0        /       2       8        /       1       2
ObamaRomneyWouldn't vote/None/Other/DK/Re
 
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Daily Election Tracking 
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1]Q2. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might changeyour mind before you vote?
OTHER VOTING QUESTIONS
(n=1,140)
All RegisteredVoters (RV)Democrats(RV)Republicans(RV)Independents(RV)Definitely will vote for candidate89%91%92%78%Could change my mind11%9%8%22%
Q3. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, orby mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All RegisteredVoters (RV)Democrats(RV)Republicans(RV)Independents(RV)Yes22%25%21%15%No78%75%79%85%
[IF “Yes” at Q3, ASK Q4]Q4. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=261 for All RVs; 128 for Ds; 105 for Rs)
All RegisteredVoters (RV)Democrats(RV)Republicans(RV)Independents(RV) 
 
[IF “No” at Q3, ASK Q5]Q5. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot?
(n=1,016)
All RegisteredVoters (RV)Democrats(RV)Republicans(RV)Independents(RV)Yes –I plan to vote at an early voting location18%23%13%18%Yes –I plan to mail in an early voting ballot5%6%5%2%Yes –I plan to mail in an absentee ballot3%4%3%2%No –I do not plan to vote early74%67%78%79%
2
 Vice President,58%93%16%
Base size toosmall to report data
Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan forVice President,39%6%82%Other
3%
1%2%
PARTY ID
All Registered Voters (RV)Strong Democrat17%Moderate Democrat21%Lean Democrat8%Lean Republican6%Moderate Republican18%Strong Republican14%Independent14%None of these2%DK1%
 
Ipsos’ Electoral College model includes our own data, previous electionoutcome data, data from other pollsters, and aggregated poll data.The most recent projection shows that Obama has a solid lead over Romney in 13 states, which represent 166 Electoral College votes. Theseare the ‘Likely Obama’ states. Romney has a solid lead over Obama in 15states (116 EC votes), which are the ‘Likely Romney’ states. In thesestates, the projected winner has a lead of 7 or more in the polls (onaverage).Some states are close but tend to ‘lean’ towards one candidate or theother. In our projection, these are the ‘Lean Obama’ (78 EC votes) or ‘Lean Romney’ (74 EC votes) states. In these states, the projected winner has a lead of between 3 and 6 in the polls (on average).The remaining 9 states (representing 104 Electoral College votes) are too
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Electoral College Projection
3
. ,each other (on average).
IPSOS ELECTORALCOLLEGE PROJECTION
# of states# of ElectoralCollegeVotesLikely Obama13166Lean Obama(Toss-up)778Toss-up(too close to call)8104Lean RomneyToss-up)874Likely Romney15116

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