HIMACHAL PRADESH PRE-POLL SURVEY 2012 FINDINGS

Table 1a: Methodology Key facts about the Survey Time period when survey was conducted Number of Assembly Constituencies in which survey was conducted Number of Polling Stations where survey was conducted Number of respondents targeted Total respondents achieved (Sample size) Table 1b: Sample Profile Social Background Women Urban SC ST Hindu Census 2001/2011 49 10 25 4 95 Survey 2012 48 8 21 5 95 14 Oct 21 Oct 30 119 3600 2014

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; figures for Women and Urban are based on Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals

NECK AND NECK IN THE HILLS Table 2: Vote-shares: Very close contest between BJP and Congress; BJP slightly ahead but down since 2007 Party/Alliance Congress BJP Others
Note: All figures are in percent

2007(Actual) 39 44 17

2012 (Estimate) 40 41 19

Change since 2007 +1 -3 +2

Table 3: Its never been so close! Party Congress BJP 1982 43 35 1985 55 31 1990 37 42 1993 49 36 1998 44 39 2003 41 35 2007 39 44 2012 (Estimate) 40 41

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest for others; these are vote share figures for all Assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh since 1982; Himachal has had a history of changing governments at every election since 1990.

Table 4: Regional pattern: East vs West

East Himachal (34) West Himachal (34)

Cong well ahead in Shimla area; close contests in Mandi, Sirmaur and Solan. BJP well ahead in Hamirpur area; close contests in Kangra and Una.

Note: East Himachal consists of districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur. West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur. Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region.

Table 5: Repeat or Reject? Pro incumbency sentiment stronger than anti-incumbency sentiment, but not by a wide margin; many were undecided when survey was conducted Should the BJP Govt. get another chance? Yes 40 No 34 Cant say/No opinion 26
Note: All figures are in percent

Table 6: CM choice: Himachal divided between Dhumal and Virbhadra Chief Minister Preference Prem Kumar Dhumal Virbhadra Singh Shanta Kumar Vijay Singh Mankotia All 34 33 2 1 East Himachal 24 38 2 1 West Himachal 43 29 2 1 Rajputs 38 33 2 0 SCs 26 37 1 1

Note: All figures are in percent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Table 7: Dhumals popularity up with the decline of Shanta Kumar; Virbhadras popularity down since 2007 Years 2003 2007 2012 Dhumal 29 25 34 PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER Virbhadra Shanta Kumar 30 15 40 23 33 2

Note: All figures in Columns 2, 3 are in percent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2003 based on a Pre Poll Survey and figures for 2007 based on Post Poll survey.

Table 8: Whose govt was better: Again very close, Rich & Poor for Virbhadra, Middle & Lower for Dhumal Which govt has been better? Present Dhumal govt (2007-12) Previous Virbhadra govt (2003-07) Both equally good Both equally bad
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

All 32 31 10 10

Rich 32 34 11 11

Middle 32 28 10 13

Lower 35 31 11 8

Poor 24 37 10 5

Table 9: Dhumal rated slightly better than Virbhadra on governance issues but not much separating the two

Who is better for the following? Tackling corruption Tackling price rise For welfare of all communities For security of common man For running the government For Himachal Pradesh
All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

Dhumal 23 20 19 23 30 30

Virbhadra 20 20 19 20 27 28

Both 15 11 23 23 16 14

Neither 24 33 13 15 8 8

Table 10: Himachal BJPs image just a shade better than that of Himachal Congress In Himachal Pradesh, which party is/has More corrupt? More nepotistic (Parivaarvadi)? More factionalism? Congress 19 16 13 BJP 14 15 11 Both 47 46 49

All figures are in percent; Rest either said neither or had no opinion

HOW IS HIMACHAL LIKELY TO VOTE?

Table 11: Castes and community voting preferences Brahmins Rajputs Other Upper Castes OBC SC ST Muslims BJP way ahead of Cong; Both down and Others are gaining BJP ahead of Cong but gap not too big; Others are gaining Equally divided between Cong and BJP; Others are gaining Cong ahead of BJP but gap not too big; both parties gaining at the expense of Others Cong ahead of BJP and holding on Cong comfortably ahead of BJP and gaining Cong comfortably ahead

Table 12: 49% of the voters in Himachal are below 40, and Cong seems to have an edge among them; in a close election they could make all the difference Age group 18-25 years 26-35 years 36-45 years 46-55 years 56+ years Cong 42 (+7) 38 (-4) 45 (+9) 35 (0) 39 (-5) BJP 37 (-12) 44 (+3) 39 (-10) 47 (+7) 39 (-3)

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest for Others; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

GOVERNANCE AND OTHER ISSUES

Table 13a: Overall a positive report card for the Dhumal governments performance Over the last five years... Condition of roads in Himachal has Supply of electricity in Himachal has... Supply of drinking water in Himachal has... Condition of Govt. schools in Himachal has Public transport services in Himachal have Law and order situation in Himachal has Industry and trade in Himachal have Protection of environment and forests has Development of Himachal has
Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion

Improved 40 67 57 43 43 36 28 35 40

Worsened 34 14 23 26 24 13 14 18 16

Remained same 23 16 17 23 23 26 22 20 24

Table 13b: But condition of govt hospitals and farmers rated negatively Over the last five years... Condition of govt hospitals in Himachal has Condition of farmers in Himachal has
Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion

Improved 35 26

Worsened 35 44

Remained same 24 19

Table 13c: And most feel corruption and price rise have increased and employment opportunities have decreased Over the last five years.. Corruption in Himachal has Price rise in Himachal has Employment opportunities in Himachal have... Illegal land deals in Himachal have
Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion

Increased 74 94 25 34

Decreased 6 3 43 9

Remained same 8 2 15 10

Table 14: Price rise most important election issue followed by farmers issues Most important election issue Price rise Farmers issues Unemployment Corruption Condition of roads Himachals leadership Electricity/Water supply Himachals development
All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

% 44 14 13 8 3 2 2 1

WHO HAS A BETTER IMAGE, STATE OR CENTRE? Table 15: Centre more to blame for Price rise than State Which govt is more responsible for price rise State or Central? All

State govt responsible Central govt responsible Both responsible Neither responsible
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

12 38 31 1

Table 16: Both Central and State govts seen as being corrupt, Central govt much more so Corruption rating of Central and State Governments Congress-led UPA govt BJP State govt Very corrupt 32 16 Somewhat corrupt 32 40 Not much corrupt 5 10 Not at all corrupt 3 8 No opinion 28 26

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.

Table 17: Satisfaction with State governments performance higher than satisfaction with Central governments performance Governments performance Cong-led UPA govt Himachals BJP govt Satisfied 47 62 Dissatisfied 33 26 No opinion 20 12

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.

Table 18: Satisfaction with Dhumals performance as CM higher than satisfaction with Manmohans performance as PM Leaders performance Manmohan as PM Dhumal as CM Satisfied 50 63 Dissatisfied 28 23 No opinion 22 14

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each leader.

Table 19: Centre has discriminated against Himachal? Yes it has say most people Statement The Central govt in Delhi has discriminated against Himachal Pradesh Agree Disagree No opinion
Note: All figures are in percent

All 38 20 42

HIMACHAL SPECIFIC ISSUES Table 20: Most people say corruption charges against Virbhadra are a political conspiracy, even BJP supporters divided on the issue Opinion on Virbhadra Singh Agree All Disagree Cong supporters Agree Disagree BJP supporters Agree Disagree

Statement Corruption charges against Virbhadra Singh are a political conspiracy Statement Virbhadra Singh is more concerned about his own interests than of his party Statement Virbhadra Singh should now retire from politics
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

34 28 38

26 32 27

43 18 23

27 42 50

32 35 61

31 20 11

Table 21: Most people agree that Hamirpur has got more attention under Dhumals rule Opinion on Prem Kumar Dhumal Agree Statement In the last five years Dhumals govt has given more attention to Hamirpur district compared to other districts 49 All Disagree 24 East Himachal Agree 52 Disagree 22 West Himachal Agree 47 Disagree 27

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion; Hamirpur falls in West Himachal

Table 22: Most agree that Dhumal is promoting dynastic politics in the State by promoting his son Anurag Opinion on Prem Kumar Dhumal Agree Statement By promoting his son Anurag Thakur, Prem Kumar Dhumal is promoting dynastic politics in Himachal Pradesh
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

All Disagree 22

BJP supporters Agree 38 Disagree 37

Cong supporters Agree 65 Disagree 9

47

Table 23: Builder mafia active in Himachal? Many agree but majority has no opinion indicating that it is perhaps not as big an issue as is being made out. People of Kangra are most opinionated on the issue. Statement During the last few years, builder and land mafia in Himachal have become active Agree Disagree No opinion
Note: All figures are in percent

All 36 11 52

Solan area 40 11 49

Kangra area 50 15 35

Table 24: Himachal land on sale for outsiders? Many agree but majority has no opinion indicating that it is perhaps not be as big an issue as is being made out. People of Kangra seem to have a greater opinion though. Statement In Himachal Pradesh rules are being flouted to sell land to outsiders (non-Himachalis) Agree All 34 Kangra area 41

Disagree No opinion
Note: All figures are in percent

15 51

18 41

Table 25a: Very few aware of Govts FDI in retail decision; farmers even less aware Awareness of Govts decision to allow FDI in multi brand retail Heard about it Not heard about it
Note: All figures are in percent

All 33 67

Farmers 24 76

Table 25b: And most opposed to it, farmers more so Support or Oppose FDI? Support for FDI among those who have heard of it Opposition to FDI among those who have heard of it No opinion on FDI among those who have heard of it
Note: All figures are in percent

All 24 55 21

Farmers 23 57 20

Table 26: Awareness about Maheshwar Singhs Himachal Lokhit Party not very high; it is however very high in Kullu, Maheshwar Singhs home turf Himachal Lokhit Party Heard about it Know who its leader is All 48 37 Kullu area 87 83

Note: Rest had not heard or did not know who leader is