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Mock Ler

Mock Ler

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Published by: scprweb on Nov 02, 2012
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12/04/2012

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 John Mockler: October 17, 2012 at 10:27 AM 
TO: Michael RothFROM: John B MocklerRE: Proposition 30- Revenue Effects on K-12 Schools Proposition 98 fundingAs a volunteer I have accompanied Governor Brown to various meetings of EditorialBoards to respond to technical questions regarding school funding underProposition 3. In addition I have answered questions regarding a comparison of K-12 school funding should Proposition 38 go into effect rather than Proposition 30.I have received numerous questions from various reporters and editors requestingmy basic analysis that led to my conclusion that Proposition 30 providessubstantially more funds for K-12 schools from 2011-12 to 2016-17 thanProposition 38. Because of this Governor Brown asked that I provide you with myinformation for your use.To this memo I have attached two pages of data that calculate K-12 school fundingFrom 2011-12 through 2016-17 should Proposition 30 pass or fail. I used availableDepartment of Finance Revenue projections and data from official analysis of thefiscal effects of Proposition 38 for K-12 schools. For the year 2016-17 year Iincreased State General Fund revenues by 4% over 2015-16 because officialDepartment of Finance projections are not available after 2015-16. Calculations forK-12 revenues are calculated at 89% of Proposition 98 changes. That is the percent Division of Proposition 98 revenues between Community Colleges and K-12 Schoolsthat has been commonly used by the Governor and the Legislature over the life of Proposition 98.As you are aware Proposition 30 constitutionally appropriates all revenues gainedfrom the temporary taxes to Proposition 98 and to K-12 School Districts, CountyOffices of Education, Charter Schools and Community Colleges. Neither theGovernor nor the Legislature has discretion over the use of these funds.
 
 John Mockler: October 17, 2012 at 10:27 AM 
Page 2 of 2Making fiscal projections is a dangerous business. The predictability of the variableseffecting out year revenues, populations, and calculations are not particularly stable.However the predictions that compare distributions are based on the same data andthus the relative effects will not vary substantially.Using the available data demonstrates the following:-
 
Proposition 30 provides $6.3 billion more revenues to schools from 2011-12through 2016-17. After 2016-17 that a slight fiscal advantage in the range of $1.5 to $2.5 billion accrues to Proposition 38.- A defeat of Proposition 30 would result in loss of Proposition 98 K-12Revenues in excess of $1.4 billion in 2011-12 and an additional $5.5 billionIn 2012-13. These losses continue and grow indefinitely.Should you need additional information please let me know.Attachments: (2) Proposition 30 K-12 Proposition 98 Revenue Comparisons
 
By John B. Mockler- September 24, 2012
 
If Proposition 30 Passes
 
$83.0
Billion
$92.2
Billion
$95.2
Billion
$105.4
Billion
$111.9
Billion
$116.4
Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails
 
$79.9
Billion
$86.6
Billion
$88.9
Billion
$98.2
Billion
$104.2
Billion
$108.4
Billion
Proposition
98
 
Proposition 30 Compared to Proposition 38 Funding for K-12 Schools: A Six Year
Analysis
 
General Fund Revenues
 
K-12 Proposition 98 Funds
 
2011-2012
 
2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
 
Total 6 Year
 
Loss/ Gain
 
If Proposition 30 Passes
 
$42.6
Billion
$47.7
Billion
$48.8
Billion
$54.8
Billion
$58.5
Billion
$60.8
Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails
 
$41.2
Billion
$42.2
Billion
$43.1
Billion
$49.2
Billion
$50.9
Billion
$52.9
Billion
Loss if Proposition 30 Fails
 
-$1.4
Billion
-$5.5
Billion
-$5.7
Billion
-$5.6
Billion
-$7.6
Billion
-$7.9
Billion
-$33.7
Billion
Proposition 38 Provides:
 
K-12 New Funds
 
$0.00
 
$0.00
 
+$8.9
Billion
+$6.0
Billion
+ $6.20
Billion
+$6.3
Billion
+$27.4
Billion
Net Loss/ Gain to K-12 Schools
 
-$1.4
Billion
-$5.5
Billion
$3.2
Billion
$0.4
Billion
-$1.4
Billion
-$1.6
Billion
-$6.3
Billion
6 Year Proposition 38 Net Loss to K-12 Schools
-$6.3
Billion
 

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