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121102 Field Poll

121102 Field Poll

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Published by jon_ortiz
An analysis of the voters' attitudes on ballot measures that would change state campaign finance laws and repeal the death penalty.
An analysis of the voters' attitudes on ballot measures that would change state campaign finance laws and repeal the death penalty.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: jon_ortiz on Nov 02, 2012
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 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEYOF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL
BY
MERVIN FIELD
 
Field Research Corporation
601 California Street, Suite 900San Francisco, CA 94108-2814(415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.comwww.field.com/fieldpollonline
Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer 
THE FIELDPOLL
Release #
2432
Release Date:
Friday, November 2, 2012MORE VOTERS NOW FAVOR DEATHPENALTY'S REPEAL (PROP. 34), BUTYES VOTE LESS THAN A MAJORITY.PROP. 32 (PAYROLL DEDUCTIONS FORPOLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS)OPPOSED BY A WIDE MARGIN.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service issubject to revocation if publication or broadcasttakes place before release date or if contents aredivulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin FieldThe latest
Field Poll
finds that for the first time supporters outnumber opponents of Proposition 34,the statewide ballot initiative to repeal the death penalty and replace it with life in prison withoutparole. Currently 45% of this state’s likely voters are voting Yes while 38% are voting No. But, arelatively large 17% remain undecided.One of the factors propelling the increase in support of the initiative relates to the growingperception that the death penalty is more expensive to administer than housing a person in prisonfor life. When asked about this in the current survey, 53% of likely voters now say the death penaltyis more expensive than life in prison, while 31% think it is more expensive to house a convictedfelon for life. This represents a significant change in voter opinion compared to past
Field Poll
 measures. A September 2011
Field Poll
found slightly more believing life in prison was moreexpensive than the death penalty (43% to 41%), while in 1989 greater than a two to one majorityfelt this way (54% to 26%).The poll also finds more voters moving to the No side on Proposition 32, the initiative to prohibitpayroll deductions for campaign contributions. At present 50% of likely voters are intending to voteNo on Prop. 32, while 34% are in favor. This sixteen-point plurality against the measure is morethan twice the six point deficit observed in mid-September.These results come from the final pre-election
Field Poll
conducted by telephone among likelyvoters in California in six languages and dialects. A total of 1,566 likely voters were surveyed.Interviewing was administered in two consecutive waves, with 815 interviews conducted October17-24 and 751 completed October 25-30.
 
The Field Poll #2432Friday, November 2, 2012 Page 2
Trend of voter preferences on Props 30 and 32
Last month 45% of likely voters were intending to vote No on Prop. 34, while 42% were on the Yesside. In the current poll’s first interviewing wave the two sides were polling about evenly (41% Yesvs. 40% No). However, in the poll’s second interviewing wave the Yes side had pulled ahead 45%to 38%.The trend line on Prop. 32 is following a different pattern, with opposition growing in the election’sfinal weeks. In the survey’s second interviewing wave Prop. 32 was trailing by sixteen points (50%to 34%), up from a six point deficit in mid-September.
Table 1Trend of voter preferences toward Proposition 34 (Death Penalty Repeal) andProposition 32 (Payroll Deductions for Political Contributions)(among likely voters)Voting yesVoting no UndecidedProposition 34 (Death Penalty Repeal)October 25 30 45% 38 17October 17 24 41% 40 19
September 6-18 42% 45 13
Proposition 32 (Payroll Deductions forPolitical Contributions)October 25 30 34% 50 16October 17 24 34% 49 17
September 6-18 38% 44 18
Voter preferences on Prop. 34 across voter subgroups
There are a number of significant differences in voter preferences on Prop. 34 across majorsubgroups of the likely voter electorate. Support for repeal is greatest among Democrats, politicalliberals, and voters living in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Opposition is greatest amongRepublicans, conservatives, Protestants and voters living in the state’s inland counties.A number of important subgroups remain closely divided on Prop. 34. This includes independents(40% Yes vs. 36% No, with a large 24% undecided), men (43% Yes vs. 43% No), white non-Hispanics (41% Yes and 42% No), and political moderates (42% Yes and 39% No).
 
The Field Poll #2432Friday, November 2, 2012 Page 3
The state’s large and growing ethnic voter population are considerably more supportive than thewhite non-Hispanic voters, although not uniformly so. Latinos are backing Prop. 34 by 15 points,and African-American are about two to one on the Yes side. While Asian-American voters overallare narrowly backing Prop. 34, there are differing opinions within different segments of the Asian-American electorate. For example, there is greater opposition than support among Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans, while Vietnamese-Americans and voters from other Asian-American segments are more supportive.While Protestants oppose repealing the death penalty 48% to 30%, a plurality of Catholics arefavoring its repeal (47% to 38%). Support for repeal is even stronger among voters affiliated withother non-Christian religions (54%) and among voters with no religious preference (60%).
 

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