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Introduction

The state of Washington has a complex system for
sentencing, treating, and supervising sex offenders.
An important task of this system, which is carried out
by multiple agencies and private providers, is the
assessment of future risk by individual sex offenders.
Since risk assessment decisions are made in
numerous settings, few people have a
comprehensive understanding of the ways in which
assessment is accomplished.

Risk assessment instruments are tools designed to
predict the likelihood that a sex offender will
recidivate (with a sex or other felony offense). These
tools rely on empirically derived or empirically guided
risk factors for criminal outcomes, and produce a
quantitative score that suggests a level of risk for
individuals with certain characteristics. The factors
considered may be static (do not change over time;
e.g., age of first sexual offense) or dynamic (change
over time; e.g., awareness of offense cycle), although
most standard instruments assess static factors to a
greater extent than dynamic factors.

The Washington State Institute for Public Policy
(Institute) reviewed sex offender risk assessment
practices across the state\u2019s adult and juvenile
agencies. Key informants were interviewed to learn
about agency practices in the Department of
Corrections, Department of Social and Health
Services\u2019 Special Commitment Center and Juvenile
Rehabilitation Administration, as well as local law
enforcement agencies and prosecuting attorney
offices.

In the case of private treatment providers who do not
operate under a homogeneous set of policies, we
developed an online survey to capture the potentially
wide range of practices represented by this group.

Mental health professionals who specialize in the
assessment and treatment of sex offenders can
apply to the Washington State Department of Health
(DOH) to receive the status of \u201ccertified\u201d or \u201caffiliate\u201d
providers.1This population was recruited to provide
a picture of the general risk assessment strategies
and specific instruments utilized in treatment
planning decisions.

1 DOH publishes a directory that includes all of Washington\u2019s

certified and affiliate sex offender treatment providers. This
directory was used to contact providers about participation in
the survey.

Summary

This paper reviews policies and practices
regarding assessment of sex offenders for risk of
reoffense among public agencies and private
treatment providers in Washington State.
Specifically, we reviewed the use of risk
assessment instruments, which gauge the
likelihood that individual sex offenders will
reoffend.

We found that a diverse set of instruments are
employed by public and private entities in making
decisions about sex offenders. These decisions
include sentencing, facility assignment, treatment,
release, public notification, and community
supervision. As expected, there was greater
variability in risk assessment practices among
private treatment providers than public agencies.

Three policies related to risk assessment were
identified as topics of concern. One is the lack of
appropriate instruments for juvenile sex offenders.
The second is the validity of the primary
instrument used to determine risk levels for
registration purposes, the WSSORLCT (soon to
be replaced). Third, some informants discussed
the static nature of risk level assignment and
suggested provisions to reassess offenders\u2019 levels
during extended registration periods.

Washington State
Institute for
Public Policy

110 Fifth Avenue Southeast, Suite 214
\u2022
PO Box 40999
\u2022
Olympia, WA 98504-0999\u2022
(360) 586-2677
\u2022
www.wsipp.wa.gov
June 2008
RISK ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENTS TO PREDICT RECIDIVISM
OFSEXOFFENDERS:PRACTICES INWASHINGTONSTATE
Suggested citation: Tali Klima & Roxanne Lieb. (2008).Risk
assessment instruments to predict recidivism of sex offenders:
Practices in Washington State. Olympia: Washington State
Institute for Public Policy, Document No. 08-06-1101.
2
The following sections describe the practices of
agencies and private providers in greater detail.
Department of Corrections

The Department of Corrections (DOC) conducts risk
assessments with sex offenders (as well as other
offenders) at several key points:

\u2022
Upon arrival at a DOC institution,
\u2022
During voluntary application to the Sex
Offender Treatment Program,
\u2022
Prior to release from the institution, and
\u2022
At the start of community supervision.

Exhibit 1 provides an overview of three aspects of
sex offender risk assessment: key decision points,
party conducting the assessments, and instruments
that are used.

2 Instruments listed for this group are those most frequently

endorsed by participants in the treatment provider survey.
For a more detailed list of instruments used and their
corresponding frequencies, see the Private Sex Offender
Treatment Providers section.

Adult sex offenders sentenced to incarceration
undergo an initial risk assessment upon reception to
the institution. Classification Officers administer the
Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R), an instrument
designed to predict institutional misconduct,
recidivism, and parole outcomes among various
types of offenders.3The DOC uses scores from this
instrument (in conjunction with other criteria laid out
in the Risk Management Identification guidelines) to
determine offenders\u2019 facility assignment and level of
custody. Because the LSI-R contains dynamic
items, the instrument is re-scored during an
offender\u2019s incarceration if new \u201cincidents\u201d occur
(e.g., involvement in violence while at the
institution).

3 For information on the predictive accuracy of the LSI-R in
Washington, see: R. Barnoski. (2006). Predicting recidivism
based on the LSI-R. Olympia: Washington State Institute for

Public Policy, Document No. 06-02-1201; and R. Barnoski &
S. Aos. (2003). Washington\u2019s Offender Accountability Act:
An analysis of the Department of Corrections\u2019 risk
assessment. Olympia: Washington State Institute for Public
Policy, Document No. 03-12-1202.

Exhibit 1
Sex Offender Risk Assessment in Washington State
Decision Points
Party Conducting Assessment
Instruments Employed
Sentencing
Private treatment providers2
(SSOSA/SSODA eligibility)
Adults: STATIC, SONAR/Stable, and others
Juveniles: ERASOR, JSOAP, and others
Department of Corrections
LSI-R
Facility assignment and level of
custody in institutions
Juvenile Rehabilitation Administration
ISCA
Department of Corrections
MnSOST-R, RRASOR, STATIC-99, and Stable-2000
Private treatment providers
Adults: STATIC-99, SONAR/Stable, and others
Juvenile offenders: ERASOR, JSOAP, and others
Treatment eligibility and
planning
Special Commitment Center
No set battery
Release from confinement
Indeterminate Sentence Review Board WSSORLCT, MnSOST-R, LSI-R, and STATIC-99
End of Sentence Review Committee
WSSORLCT, MnSOST-R, LSI-R, and STATIC-99
Juvenile Rehabilitation Administration
WSSORLCT
Joint Forensic Unit
STATIC-99, MnSOST-R, and others
Civil commitment eligibility
Special Commitment Center
No set battery
End of Sentence Review Committee
WSSORLCT, MnSOST-R, LSI-R, and STATIC-99
Juvenile Rehabilitation Administration
WSSORLCT
Assignment of risk level for
community notification
Law enforcement agencies
WSSORLCT
Department of Corrections
LSI-R
Post-release supervision in the
community
Juvenile Rehabilitation Administration
SOSS
3

An additional assessment is undertaken for those sex
offenders who volunteer to participate in the prison\u2019s
Sex Offender Treatment Program (SOTP). A
Psychological Associate completes the static risk
assessment, which consists of the Minnesota Sex
Offender Screening Tool (MnSOST-R), Rapid Risk
Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR),
and STATIC-99. In addition, a Correctional Mental
Health Unit Supervisor administers the Stable-2000
interview, which is not scored but provides information
on dynamic risk factors and criminogenic needs that
may be targeted in treatment. Together, the two
assessment components inform decisions about an
offender\u2019s eligibility for SOTP, his/her specific treatment
needs, and placement into adjunct psychoeducational
classes. Specifically, eligibility is determined via
classification of offenders into low-, medium-, and high-
risk based on scores from the static instruments.

When the offender ends SOTP treatment, the staff
prepares a \u201cbehaviorally based\u201d summary report that
is distributed to various parties responsible for the
offender\u2019s transition into the community (e.g., End of
Sentence Review Committee, Indeterminate
Sentencing Review Board, Community Corrections
Officer). In the summary report, scores of
assessment procedures are included, as well as
behavioral descriptions of treatment progress.
(SOTP\u2019s administrators no longer provide an official
assessment of risk at the end of treatment.)

The End of Sentence Review Committee (ESRC)4is
responsible for reviewing all sex offenders prior to
their release from state confinement.5To prepare for
this decision, a Community Corrections Specialist at
DOC utilizes a standard battery of risk assessment
instruments, which currently include the Washington
State Sex Offender Risk Level Classification Tool6
(WSSORLCT, a.k.a. the Washington SOST7),

4 For information on this committee, see
<http://www.doc.wa.gov/community/sexoffenders/endof
sentence.asp>.
5 The ESRC also reviews offenders convicted of kidnapping
offenses.
6 The form, scoring examples, and risk level assignment
cutoffs are included in R. Barnoski. (2005). Washington State
sex offender risk level classification\u2014Revised 1999. Olympia:
Washington State Institute for Public Policy, Document No. 05-
12-1205.
7 This tool, revised in 1999, was adopted by DOC as well as

other state agencies in Washington to make key pre-release
decisions about sex offenders. It consists of 21 items that
constitute the MnSOST (1995), in addition to four \u201cnotification
considerations\u201d that are not part of the standard MnSOST
instrument. The notification considerations include: whether
the victims were particularly vulnerable; whether the
convictions were of a predatory nature; whether the offender
has continued to display sexually deviant behavior while
incarcerated; and whether the offender\u2019s score on the

MnSOST-R, and LSI-R. For sex offenders who were
convicted under the \u201cDeterminate Plus\u201d sentencing
laws,8 the STATIC-99 is also completed.

The ESRC considers, but does not solely rely on, the
results of these tools in making decisions regarding
risk level recommendations, community notification
bulletins, the potential pursuit of civil commitment
hearings, and referral to release programs (such as the
Dangerous Mentally Ill Offender Program). Notably, all
sex offenders, including females and developmentally
disabled individuals, are assessed using the same
instruments; however, the Committee may invoke its
discretionary powers to assign such sex offenders a
different risk level than the one generated by
instrument scores.

The ESRC determines whether a released sex offender is assessed at Level 1, 2, or 3. These classifications are as follows:

\u2022

Level 1 offenders pose a low risk of sexual
reoffense within the community at large.
Sheriffs\u2019 departments share information about
offenders with other law enforcement agencies
and may disclose information to the public
upon request.

\u2022

Level 2 offenders pose a moderate risk of
sexual reoffense within the community at large.
Sheriffs\u2019 departments may share information
about these offenders with schools, child care
centers, businesses, neighbors, and community
groups near their expected residence or places
where they are regularly found.

\u2022

Level 3 offenders are at high risk of sexual
reoffense within the community at large. In
addition to the type of disclosures made for
Level 2 sex offenders, sheriffs\u2019 departments
can provide information about these offenders
to the public at large via notification bulletins
and community forums.

The assessment conducted by ESRC is a key
element in the decision-making process of the
Indeterminate Sentence Review Board (ISRB). The
ISRB establishes the \u201creleasability\u201d of offenders with
\u201cDeterminate Plus\u201d sentences into the community, as
well as sex offenders who were sentenced under the
indeterminate sentencing law (those who committed

RRASOR is high (between 4 and 6). Because the
WSSORLCT relies on an outdated instrument that has since
been revised (MnSOST-R, 1998) and includes items that

aggravate or mitigate the score based on considerations that

are not empirically based, personnel at DOC have
questioned its validity. More on this issue is presented in
\u201cConcerns About the WSSORLCT\u201d at the end of this report.

8 See RCW 9.94A.712 for these sentencing laws.
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