Muhlenberg College/
Morning
Call
2012 Pennsylvania Presidential Election
Survey
Release
Date
November 4,
2012
Survey
Methodology
Number of Interviews
: 430 Likely Voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Margin of Error
: +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence
Fielding Dates
– November 1-3, 2012
Method of Interviewing
: Live telephone interviewers
Method of Sampling
: The sample for this study was drawn randomly from both a list of registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania and from theuniverse of wireless numbers in the Commonwealth. First, voters wererandomly selected from a list of registered voters in Pennsylvania that is provided by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. This list has been updated toreflect changes in phone numbers for voters since their initial registration.However since the list updating procedure will not match voters to wireless phone numbers a supplemental sampling procedure is employed. Thesupplemental sample includes a random selection of wireless numbers for cell phones in Pennsylvania. While the proportion of registered voters inPennsylvania who exclusively use cell phones is undetermined, it is estimatedthat approximately a quarter of Americans use only cell phones. We thussupplement the sample drawn from voter files with a sample drawn randomlyfrom wireless phone numbers in Pennsylvania. Respondents from the cell phone sample were asked to identify if they used only cell phones for their personal use, with those using both cell phones and landlines excluded form participation in the survey. The overall sample included 314 responses from thelist of registered voters and 116 responses from the cell phone sample.
Likely Voter Screens
: To identify likely voters a multiple stage process isutilized. For the sample drawn from the Pennsylvania voter registration filesonly individuals who voted in at least 1 of the last 8 general or primaryelections in Pennsylvania OR who had registered to vote in the state since 2009were included in the sampling frame. For the cell phone sample respondentswere asked if they had voted in 1 of the last 8 elections in the state or hadregistered to vote since 2009. Among those that met the voting historyrequirement, two follow up questions were asked to determine voter likelihood.First respondents were asked to confirm their voter registration status (Question1) with those indicating that they were either not registered or unsure abouttheir registration status being excluded from participation. Finally, individualswere asked to express the likelihood that they will vote (Question 2) in the November election, with only those indicating that they will definitely or mostlikely vote allowed to participate in the full survey.
Weighting
: The data was weighted by gender and region of the state.Totals may not equal 100% due to roundingInstrument Design: Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the Muhlenberg College Instituteof Public Opinion in conjunction with staff members of the
Morning Call
.
CONTACT:
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion 484-664-3066
FREQUENCY REPORT AND SURVEY INSTRUMENT
INTRODUCTIONQ1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current votingstatus? Are you registered as a ? (READ LIST)August2012EarlySeptember 2012LateSeptember 2012EarlyOctober 2012LateOctober 2012
November2012
Democrat 49% 49% 47% 47% 46%
46%
Republican 40% 39% 39% 42% 40%
42%
Independent 10% 8% 12% 10% 12%
11%
Other Party 2% 4% 2% 2% 2%
1%
Not Registered (ENDSURVEY) Na Na Na Na Na
Na
Not Sure (ENDSURVEY) Na Na Na Na Na
Na
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Are you definitelygoing to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?August2012EarlySeptember 2012LateSeptember 2012EarlyOctober 2012LateOctober 2012
November2012
Definitely Goingto Vote84% 82% 85% 90% 91%
92%
Very Likely ToVote16% 18% 15% 10% 9%
8%
Very Likely ToVote (ENDSURVEY) Na Na Na Na Na
Na
Definitely notvoting (ENDSURVEY) Na Na Na Na Na
Na
Not Sure (ENDSURVEY) Na Na Na Na Na
Na
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