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PEW 11-4-12 Election Weekend Release

PEW 11-4-12 Election Weekend Release

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Published by: The Vera Institute of Justice on Nov 04, 2012
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07/23/2013

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www.people-press.orgSUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2012
Obama 50%-Romney 47%
Obama Gains Edge in Campaign’s
Final Days
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:Andrew Kohut
President, Pew Research Center
Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock
Associate Directors
Scott Keeter
Director of Survey Research1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700Washington, D.C. 20036Tel (202) 419-4350Fax (202) 419-4399www.peoplepress.org 
 
www.people-press.org
Obama 50%-Romney 47%
Obama Gains Edge in
Campaign’s Final Days
 
Barack Obama has edgedahead of Mitt Romney in thefinal days of the presidentialcampaign. In the Pew 
Research Center’s election
 weekend survey, Obamaholds a 48% to 45% lead overRomney among likely voters.The survey finds that Obamamaintains his modest lead when the probable decisionsof undecided voters are takeninto account. Our finalestimate of the nationalpopular vote is Obama 50%and Romney 47%, when theundecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicatorsand opinions. A week ago the race was deadlocked, with each candidate drawing support from 47% of the likely electorate. Interviewing for the final pre-election survey was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. The previous survey was conducted Oct. 24-28, beforeHurricane Sandy made landfall along the East Coast.
Obama Slightly Ahead, But Race Is Still Close
Likely voters*
Sept12-16Oct4-7Oct24-28Oct 31-Nov 3Estimate w/undecidedsallocated
% % % % %Obama 51 45 47 48 50Romney 43 49 47 45 47Other 1 2 3 4 3DK/Refused 5 4 3 4 --100 100 100 100 100N 2,192 1,112 1,495 2,709
Registered voters
 
Obama 51 46 47 49Romney 42 46 45 42Other 2 3 4 4DK/Refused 6 5 4 5100 100 100 100N 2,424 1,201 1,678 3,151
PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012.Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.* Based on nine-question turnout scale and assumes 58% of the voting populationwill cast a vote.
 
2
 www.people-press.org
Obama’s handling of the storm’s aftermath may 
 have contributed to his improved showing.Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way 
Obama is handling the storm’s impact.
Even aplurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve
of Obama’s handling
of the situation; moreimportant, so too do 63% of swing voters. Voter turnout, which may be lower than in2008 and 2004, remains one of Romney 
’s
 strengths.
Romney’s
supporters continue to bemore engaged in the election and interested inelection news than Obama supporters, and aremore committed to voting.The survey also indicates that voters in the nine battleground states are as closely divided as thenational electorate: 49% of likely voters in battleground states support Obama while 47% back Romney.There are many good signs inthe poll for Obama. He hasregained much of the groundhe lost following hislackluster performance in thefirst presidential debate. Inmid-September, Obama ledRomney by eight pointsamong likely voters, but inearly October, shortly afterthe debate, he trailed by fourpoints.
Romney Supporters MoreEngaged, Certain to Vote
Given a lot of thought to theelectionSept12-16Oct4-7Oct24-28 Oct31-Nov 3
% % % %All voters 70 73 78 81Romney supporters 73 82 82 87Obama supporters 69 67 78 79R+4 R+15 R+4 R+8
Following campaignnews very closely
All voters 44 47 61 55Romney supporters 44 53 66 61Obama supporters 46 44 60 54O+2R+9 R+6 R+7
Definitely plan tovote
All voters 84 85 84 88Romney supporters 86 90 88 92Obama supporters 84 83 83 86R+2 R+7 R+5 R+6
PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012. THOUGHT,CAMPNII & SCALE10. Based on registered voters.
Battleground States Divided
Vote preference …
 
All likelyvotersBlueStatesRedStatesBattlegroundStates
% % % %Obama 48 54 38 49Romney 45 36 54 47
Other/Don’t know
7 9 7 5100 100 100 100N 2709 1228 888 708
PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov.3, 2012. Based on likely voters.Battleground states: CO, FL, IA, NC, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI. Figures may not add to100% because of rounding.

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