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ND Pharos Poll

ND Pharos Poll

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Published by Rob Port
Pharos Research poll for North Dakota, early November.
Pharos Research poll for North Dakota, early November.

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Published by: Rob Port on Nov 06, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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North Dakota Polling Report11/2/12-11/5/12
ANALYSISPharos Research Group did a live call poll of 503 likely voters in North Dakotafrom November2, 2012 through November 5, 2012. The breakdown was 249 men,254 women, representing a 50/50 split. There were 142 self-identified Democrats,212 self-identified Republicans and 149 Independents representing a 28/42/30split.The numbers read like this: in the general election for President, 38% of respondents indicated an intention to vote for President Barack Obama, while 55%indicated a preference for Republican nominee Willard “Mitt” Romney.In the United States Senate race, 47% prefer the Democratic, former AttorneyGeneral Heidi Heitkamp, while 49% chose Republican nominee, CongressmanRick Berg.Our modeling is based on a geographic model of the state based on the 2010census. A caution with this: North Dakota does not have voter registration, and asa result, the roughly 10,000-15,000 transient workers in the state are eligible tovote if they have been resident for 30 days. In most states, a hard to identify andhard to measure group of 10,000-15,000 would not be a major hurdle, but whenroughly 300,000 voters turnout in a typical election, this marks a 3-5% “wild card”which makes the precision of polling very difficult. To account for this, wechanged our likely voter model, but realistically, it is very difficult to account forpeople with no land line, many of whom have cellular numbers outside of the 701area code.The trend in the race is clearly towards Rick Berg, he has been making up groundin our polling for the length of the polling. Former Attorney General Heitkamp hasrun a professional and competitive campaign. As one blogger put it “she is thebest possible candidate with the exception of the incumbent (Kent Conrad)” but towin the election, she needs a near perfect storm: high turnout in the eastern thirdof the state and a lot of people splitting their ballot. To beat the lean of the state,she has to capture 60% or more of the independent vote. If it can be done, she hasrun the campaign to do it. Still, looking at the final poll, it is difficult to see this asanything but an uphill climb for her.The most likely result we can see is a narrow win for Rep. Berg, somewherebetween 2-5 points. Given the polling numbers, a Heitkamp win is not impossible,but neither would we say it is likely.

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