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Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

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Published by Leonid Grinin
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research
on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term worldsystem dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research
on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.

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Categories:Types, Research, Science
Published by: Leonid Grinin on Nov 07, 2012
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12/04/2012

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26
I+ M!SG_EV IK CHNBGH ZERVZEFPI_E7Mnk`rgpieoo Sgevik ple Snrh` Vyvpea Zervzefpie
 Gk`rey _+ Mnrnpgye gk` Henki` E+ Crikik
Gbvprgfp
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Meysnr`v4
fyfhifgh `ykgaifv( Duchgr fyfhev( Mnk`rgpieoo sgev( M!sgev(Snrh` Vyvpea( hnkc sgev( zlgvev no hnkc sgev( snrh` efnknaif( Kimnhgy Mnk`rgpieoo( snrh` C@Z( peflknhncifgh ikkngpink( fnre gk` zerizlery( heg`ikc  vefpnr( peflknhncifgh vyvpea( peflknhncifgh vpyhe+
Wughipgpie aneaekp pnsgr` kes ukmknsk onrav gk` heehv fgkknp zrnfee`ikoikipehy( hikegrhy gk` uklik`ere`+ Plere gre ghsgyv ferpgik hiaipgpinkv= vuflaneaekp iv gffnazgkie` by ple eaercekfe no `ivzrnznrpinkv( crnspl no fna! zepipink onr revnurfev( gk` vn nk+ Nk ple npler lgk`( fnkpikunuv luagk eoonrp pnnerfnae ekirnkaekpgh revivpgkfe pn vufl aneaekp lgv fregpe` fnk`ipinkvonr ple fnkpikunuv eaercekfe no anre gk` anre fnazhe| gk` eooefpie vpruf!
 
Mnk`rgpieoo Sgev ik ple Snrh` Vyvpea Zervzefpie
 
20
purev gp ple heeh no bnpl ik`ii`ugh vnfiepiev gk` ple Snrh` Vyvpea gv g slnhe+Lnseer( rehgpiehy vlnrp zerin`v no ogvp `eehnzaekp cge zhgfe pn zerin`v no vpgckgpink( friviv( gk` vnaepiaev eek fnhhgzve+ Pliv sgv nke no ple agik fguv!ev plgp he` pn ple onragpink no fyfhifgh fnaznkekpv no vnfigh agfrn`ykgaifvplgp ik zre!ik`uvprigh eznfl fnuh` ikfhu`e fyfhev sipl agky `iooerekp zerin`v(ikfhu`ikc vefuhgr gk` eek aihhekkigh nkev ,
e+c+
( Mnrnpgye( Aghmn( gk` Mlgh!pnurikg 2::?= Mnrnpgye gk` Mlghpnurikg 2::?= Purflik 2::6( 2::5g( 2::5b= Keoe`n 2::0= Purflik gk` Keoe`n 2::9= Purflik gk` Mnrnpgye 2::?=Mnrnpgye
ep gh+
2:7:= Crikik gk` Mnrnpgye 2:72)+Ik ple ik`uvprigh zerin` se vee ple eaercekfe no kes fyfhifgh fnaznkekpvikfhu`ikc Duchgr fyfhev
7
sipl g flgrgfperivpif zerin` bepseek 3 gk` 77 yegrv plgpagkioevp pleavehev ik ekercepif bnnav gk` frivev plgp vu``ekhy ekcuho vnfighvyvpeav+ Knpe plgp plnve fyfhev gre ikprikvif fnaznkekpv no ple `eehnzaekpgh`ykgaifv no vufl vnfiepiev+ Lnseer( pley gre knp ple nkhy fyfhev plgp gre flgr!gfperivpif onr ple ik`uvprigh gk` znvpik`uvprigh vyvpeav( sleregv nke no ple anvpikperevpikc gvzefpv no pleir fyfhifgh `ykgaifv iv rezrevekpe` by fyfhev siplg flgrgfperivpif zerin` no 0: pn ?: yegrv mknsk gv Mnk`rgpieoo sgev ,nr duvpM!sgev)+Ple gkghyviv no hnkc efnknaif fyfhev ghhnsv gkghyvpv pn fnazrelek` plehnkc!pera `ykgaifv no ple Snrh` Vyvpea `eehnzaekp( gk` lehzv pn `eehnzonrefgvpv= ip ghvn ogfihipgpev nur uk`ervpgk`ikc no ple frivev no ple zgvp( gv sehh gvple furrekp chnbgh efnknaif friviv+ Ik ple zrevekp grpifhe se sihh gkghyte pleeaercekfe no M!sgev ik ple Snrh` Vyvpea efnknaif `ykgaifv ik ple 79
pl
fek!pury gk` ple flgkcev plgp fgk be prgfe` gv M!sge zgpperkv ik ple 2:
pl
fekpury( bup evzefighhy goper ple Vefnk` Snrh` Sgr+ Se sihh ghvn gkghyte ple zefuhigri!piev no ple vpu`y no M!sgev siplik ple Snrh` Vyvpea vfghe gk` sihh `eank!vprgpe plgp gk g`ewugpe uk`ervpgk`ikc no ple kgpure no ple an`erk M!sge `y!kgaifv fgk nkhy be gfliee` io pliv zleknaeknk iv vpu`ie` zrefivehy siplik plivorgaesnrm+
Hnkc Sgev ik ple Snrh` Efnknaif @ykgaifv
G Ruvvigk efnknaivp sripikc ik ple 792:v( Kimnhgy Mnk`rgpieoo nbvere` plgpple livpnrifgh refnr` no vnae efnknaif ik`ifgpnrv plek ggihgbhe pn lia gz! zegre` pn ik`ifgpe g fyfhif recuhgripy no zlgvev no crg`ugh ikfregvev ik ghuev no revzefpie ik`ifgpnrv onhhnse` by zlgvev no `efhike ,Mnk`rgpieoo 79224 fl+ 5=7925( 792?( 7965( 2::2)= ple zerin` no pleve gzzgrekp nvfihhgpinkv veeae` pnlia pn be grnuk` 5: yegrv+ Pliv zgpperk sgv onuk` by lia sipl revzefp pn vuflik`ifgpnrv gv zrifev( ikperevp rgpev( onreick prg`e( fngh gk` zic irnk zrn`ufpink,gv sehh gv vnae npler zrn`ufpink ik`ifgpnrv) onr vnae agdnr Sevperk efnkn! 
7
Ik g``ipink pn vlnrp!pera Mipflik fyfhev gk` ae`iua!pera Mutkepv vsikcv ,vee(
e+c+
( Mipflik7926= Mutkepv 796:( 795<= Gbrganipt 79?7= Mnrnpgye gk` Pvireh 2:7:f)+
 
 Gk`rey _+ Mnrnpgye gk` Henki` E+ Crikik
25
aiev ,oirvp no ghh Ekchgk`( Orgkfe( gk` ple Ukipe` Vpgpev)( sleregv ple hnkc sgevik zic irnk gk` fngh zrn`ufpink sere fhgiae` pn be `epefpe` vikfe ple 7<3:v onr ple snrh` heeh gv sehh ,knpe plgp gv recgr`v ple zrn`ufpink ik`ifev `urikc `e!fhike.`nskvsikc zlgvev se gre `eghikc sipl ple vhns`nsk no zrn`ufpinkcrnspl rgpler plgk sipl gfpugh zrn`ufpink `efhikev plgp rgrehy hgvp hnkcer plgk7‖2 yegrv( sleregv `urikc ple uzvsikc zlgve se gre `eghikc sipl g cekergh gf!fehergpink no ple zrn`ufpink crnspl rgpev ik fnazgrivnk sipl ple zrefe`ikc`nskvsikc.vhns`nsk zerin` ]vee(
e+c+
( An`ehvmi 2::7( 2::? sln zreoerv wuipehncifghhy pn `evickgpe “`efhike.`nskvsikc’ zlgvev gv “zlgvev no pgme!noo’(sleregv ple uzvsikc zlgvev gre `eknpe` by lia gv “licl crnspl zlgvev’Q)+Gankc iaznrpgkp Mnk`rgpieoo zre`efevvnrv nke vlnuh` aekpink D+ gk Ceh!`erek ,7976)( A+ G+ Bukygpygk ,7975)( gk` V+ `e Snhoo ,7920)+ Nke fgk ghvnaekpink Sihhiga Lekry Beeri`ce ,bepper mknsk( zerlgzv( gv Hnr` Beeri`ce(ple guplnr no ple vn!fghhe` Beeri`ce Reznrp nk Vnfigh Ikvurgkfe gk` Ghhie`Verifev no 7902 plgp vere` goper ple Vefnk` Snrh` Sgr gv ple bgviv onr pleBripivl Sehogre Vpgpe( evzefighhy ple Kgpinkgh Leghpl Verife)( sln `ivfnere`g kuaber no fyfhev ik ple hnkc!pera `ykgaifv no slegp zrifev( sleregv nke no plnve fyfhev purke` pn lge gk gergce zerin`ifipy no 50 yegrv ,Beeri`ce 7927(7922)+ Knpe plgp ple revuhpv no knke no ple gbne aekpinke` vfiekpivpv seremknsk pn Mnk`rgpieoo gp ple piae no liv `ivfnery no hnkc sgev ,vee(
e+c+
(Mnk`rgpieoo 79654 775( knpe 7)+Mnk`rgpieoo liaveho i`ekpioie` ple onhhnsikc hnkc sgev gk` pleir zlgvev,vee Pgbhe 7)+
Pgbhe 7+
 
Hnkc sgev gk` pleir zlgvev i`ekpioie` by Mnk`rgpieoo 
 
 Hnkc sgekuaber  Hnkc sge zlgve @gpev no ple becikkikc  @gpev no pleek` 
G4 uzvsikc “Ple ek` no ple 73<:v nr  becikkikc no ple 739:v’7<7:‖7<73
Nke
B4 `nskvsikc 7<7:‖7<73 7<00‖7<57G4 uzvsikc 7<00‖7<57 7<3:‖7<35
Psn
B4 `nskvsikc 7<3:‖7<35 7<9:‖7<9?G4 uzvsikc 7<9:‖7<9? 7970‖792:
Plree
B4 `nskvsikc 7970‖792:
Ple vubvewuekp vpu`ekpv no Mnk`rgpieoo fyfhev i`ekpioie` g``ipinkghhy ple onh!hnsikc hnkc!sgev ik ple znvp!Snrh` Sgr 7 zerin` ,vee Pgbhe 2)+

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