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HAMP Chemtrails

HAMP Chemtrails

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Published by: Nwoinfowarrior Killuminati on Nov 10, 2012
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12/13/2012

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AffiliAtions:
 
R
osenfeld
 
and
K
hain
 —Institute of EarthSciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel;
W
oodley
 —Woodley Weather Consultants, Littleton, Colorado;
C
otton
 
and
C
aRRió
 —Department of Atmospheric Science,Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado;
G
inis
 — Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island,Narragansett, Rhode Island;
G
olden
 —Golden Research andConsulting, Boulder, Colorado
CoRREsPonDinG AUtHoR:
Daniel Rosenfeld, Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem91904, IsraelE-mail:daniel.rosenfeld@huji.ac.il
The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following thetable of contents.
In final form 10 January 2012©2012 American Meteorological Society
Because dust and pollution redistribute the latent heating through precipitation processesin a way that weakens tropical cyclones, incorporating these effects in models may improveprediction of storm intensities.
B
 
ACkGRoUnD AnD MotivAtion.
 
Tropical cyclones (TC) are energized by thehuge amount of latent heat that is released by thecondensation of water and its subsequent precipita-tion. Therefore, it can be expected that changes in theprecipitation-forming processes that would changeor redistribute the precipitation in the TC wouldalso redistribute the latent heating and respectively affect the dynamics of the storm and its intensity.This concept was first invoked in the STORMFURYhurricane-mitigation experiment (Willoughby et al.1985) that focused on glaciogenic seeding of vigorousconvective clouds within the eyewall. Seeding withsilver iodide of these strong cloud towers at the outerperiphery of the eyewall was postulated to freezesupercooled water (i.e., liquid water cooled to below 0°C) and release the latent heat of freezing. Accordingto the conceptual chain, this would invigorate theconvection (Simpson et al. 1967) in these clouds atthe expense of air converging to the eyewall, andhence lead to its reformation at a larger radius, andthus, through partial conservation of angular mo-mentum, produce a decrease in the strongest winds.Because a TC’s destructive potential increases withthe cube of its strongest winds, a reduction as smallas 10% in its wind speed could reduce the destructivepower of these storms by 33%. In fact, STORMFURYintended to cause the process that was later recog-nized as the naturally occurring secondary eyewallformation in mature TCs (Willoughby et al. 1982).
AEROSOL EFFECTS ONMICROSTRUCTURE ANDINTENSITY OF TROPICALCYCLONES
by
d
aniel
R
osenfeld
, W
illiam
l. W
oodley
, a
lexandeR
K
hain
, W
illiam
R. C
otton
,G
ustavo
C
aRRió
, i
saaC
G
inis
,
and
J
oseph
h. G
olden
987
 july 2012AMERICAN METEOROlOGICAl SOCIETy
|
 
Unfortunately, that also meant that the very processthat STORMFURY was trying to initiate—robbingthe inner core of its energy—also happens naturally in mature TCs and could mask the seeding effect, if it existed.The STORMFURY experiment also failed to show a detectable effect on the seeded hurricanes becauseseeding probably did not have the intended micro-physical effect. It is now understood that the amountof supercooled water in the TCs is too small to expectmuch of a seeding effect upon freezing, and this smallamount of water freezes naturally quickly above the0°C level. This is because the cloud drops in tropicalmaritime clouds become sufficiently large to undergoeffective coalescence and produce warm rain wellbelow the freezing level (Andreae et al. 2004). Much of the rain precipitates without ever freezing (e.g., Khainet al. 2008a; Khain 2009). The water that managesto reach supercooled temperatures is composed of large cloud drops and supercooled rain. As shown inseveral modeling studies (Cotton 1972; Koenig andMurray 1976; Scott and Hobbs 1977), the presence of these large drops enhances the rapidity of glaciationof clouds and also produces greater concentrationsof ice particles by the rime-splinter ice multiplicationprocess (Hallett and Mossop 1974; Koenig 1977; Lambet al. 1981). Thus, the window for artificial conversionof supercooled liquid water to ice in inner rainbandand eyewall clouds by glaciogenic seeding is quitesmall. Budget considerations indicate that most of thelatent heat release is caused by droplet condensation,and then by freezing resulting from riming within adeep supercooled cloud layer (Khain 2009). Freezingof the small amounts of supercooled water that may occur at upper levels should not lead to any significanteffects on cloud updrafts.Much more recently Rosenfeld et al. (2007) andCotton et al. (2007) independently hypothesizedthat the invigoration of convective clouds near theperiphery of the TC well away from the eyewallmight be achievable by adding hygroscopic aerosolsthat slow the warm rain-forming processes. Thiswas postulated to take place at the expense of theeyewall by intercepting some of the energy beingtransported toward the inner core and weakening thestorm. In contrast, STORMFURY focused directly on the clouds just outside the eyewall in an attemptto weaken the storm using a different rationale andapproach that did not prove to be productive forreasons that are now understood.This focus on aerosols is relevant not only to hy-pothesized seeding methods for decreasing intensi-ties of tropical cyclones; it is relevant also to naturalchanges in storm intensities. In this respect, weshould also acknowledge the pioneers who recognizedthe possible role of African dust and other land-basedaerosols on Atlantic tropical weather disturbances(Prospero et al. 1970; Prospero and Carlson 1972) andsevere storms over the United States (Danielsen 1975).There is considerable evidence for the hypothe-sized aerosol-induced microphysical changes and thesubsequent response of the cloud dynamics. Remotesensing (Rosenfeld 1999) and in situ (Andreae et al.2004) measurements have shown that adding largeconcentrations of smoke aerosols to marine tropi-cal clouds can delay the formation of warm rain toabove the 0°C isotherm within the cloud. This is doneby the nucleating activity of aerosols called cloudcondensation nuclei (CCN). Larger concentrationsof CCN nucleate more numerous, and respectively smaller, cloud drops. The smaller drops are slower tocoalesce into raindrops. Therefore, more CCN meansslower conversion of cloud droplets into raindrops.The cloud water that did not precipitate as rain caneither reevaporate at low levels or rise with the updraftabove the freezing level, creating enhanced amountsof supercooled water, and thereby producing icehydrometeors with the consequent enhancement of the release of the latent heat of freezing. This addedheat release invigorates the convection and often en-hances rain amounts in a moist tropical atmosphere(Khain et al. 2005, 2008a,b; Seifert and Beheng2006; van den Heever et al. 2006; van den Heeverand Cotton 2007; Rosenfeld et al. 2008). Greateramounts of supercooled water with stronger updraftsand more ice hydrometeors are expected to producemore lightning (Williams et al. 2002; Andreae et al.2004). This hypothesis was supported by additionalobservations (Koren et al. 2005, 2010) and simulations(Wang 2005; Khain et al. 2008b). Simulations show that the invigoration also enhances the downdraftand low-level evaporative cooling (Khain et al. 2005; van den Heever et al. 2006; van den Heever and Cot-ton 2007; Lee 2011).These considerations prompted Rosenfeld et al.(2007) to test by simulation the hypothesis that sup-pressing coalescence in the peripheral clouds of a TCwould invigorate the convection there and reduce theintensity of the storm. At the same time, reports of decreasing storm intensity associated with desert dust(Dunion and Velden 2004) motivated similar inde-pendent simulations by H. Zhang et al. (2007, 2009).These simulations showed a decreasing intensity of maximum wind speed and an increase in the centralpressure when aerosols were added and coalescencewas suppressed.
988
 july 2012
|
 
In the wake of the disaster inflicted on the UnitedStates by Hurricane Katrina, the U.S. Departmentof Homeland Security (DHS) organized a workshopto develop a program to study the potential for TCmitigation. The workshop took place in Boulder,Colorado, in February 2008. William D. Laskabecame the DHS program manager of a project thateventually was named the Hurricane AerosolMicrophysics Program (HAMP). A science teamcomposed of W. Woodley, W. Cotton, J. Golden,I. Ginis, A. Khain, and D. Rosenfeld was formed,and funds were established to begin research on TCmitigation. HAMP had hardly gotten underway whenDHS administrators began to back off on supportinga TC mitigation research project, and instead directedthat the effort be refocused on research on the effect of aerosols on tropical cyclone intensities. The emphasiswas to be on improved forecasts of the intensities of tropical cyclones. Finally, by November 2010, HAMPfunding was discontinued, presumably a result of changes in DHS management and its priorities.During its brief existence, HAMP was able toestablish a productive partnership between ob-servational and modeling research. The observa-tional effort provided the basis for the “real world”understanding of tropical clouds and cyclones, andit provided the standard for evaluating the numeri-cal models and their simulations. Model simulationscannot pass muster unless they are consistent withactual observations of the modeled entities, wheresuch observations have proved possible. Once this hasbeen accomplished, a validated model can be used toprovide insights into other processes at temporal andspatial scales not yet addressed by observations. Thisinteractive process between observations and modelsimulations is viewed as the key to research progress.In situ aircraft measurements of cloud–aerosol inter-actions were planned but were not realized becauseof the discontinuation of HAMP. Unfortunately, nosuch measurements of boundary layer (BL) CCNand the microstructure of clouds that ingest theseaerosols are available for TCs from other projects.This is a major gap in our knowledge that we believeneeds and can be filled with aerosol and cloud phys-ics instruments on the National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration (NOAA) reconnaissancehurricane airplanes. Some observational support tothe simulations was obtained from satellite retriev-als of cloud microstructure, as reported here in the“Quantitative relationships between aerosol amountsand TC intensity” section.In spite of its brief existence, a great deal wasaccomplished in the HAMP research effort. Itinitiated a process that got a life of its own, where theimpacts of the microphysical interactions of aerosolswith clouds on the dynamics of TCs was recognizedto be a factor that has to be taken into account forproper understanding and accurate predictions of these storms. Here we report the main results of thisresearch.
MoDEl siMUlAtions of AERosolEffECts.
 
Simulations of impacts of pollution and dust aerosols.
Building on the earlier dust simula-tions of H. Zhang et al. (2007, 2009), Carrió andCotton (2011) performed idealized simulations of the direct insertion of CCN in the outer rainbandregion of a TC. The Regional Atmospheric ModelingSystem (RAMS; Cotton et al. 2003) was used in thoseidealized simulations that included a two-momentmicrophysics scheme described by Cotton et al. (2003;Saleeby and Cotton 2005, 2008), which emulates binmicrophysics for drop collection, ice particle riming,and sedimentation. New algorithms for sea-spray generation of CCN and precipitation scavengingwere added (Carrió and Cotton 2011). These simu-lations supported the hypothesis that much of the variability to enhanced CCN concentrations foundin the H. Zhang et al. (2009) simulations was due tothe variable intensity of outer rainband convectionwhen the enhanced CCN advected into that region.Moreover, the CCN are not always transported ef-ficiently from the environment in which the stormis embedded into outer rainband convection becausetransport is at the mercy of the local flow in thoseregions. Furthermore, those simulations showed aclear step-by-step response of the TC to the directinsertion of enhanced CCN in the outer rainband of the storm as described in the basic hypothesis.Simulations by Krall (2010) and Krall and Cotton(2012) of Typhoon Nuri, which propagated into wide-spread pollution from the Asian mainland, revealedthat during the early period of pollution ingestion (seeFig. 1) the storm intensified, but later on the stormweakened in strength in accordance with the basichypothesis. It is speculated that the reason the stormintensified during the early period of pollution inges-tion was because the simulated storm did not producewell-developed spiral rainbands and a closed eyewall,so that the pollution plume invaded the clouds aroundthe circulation center and invigorated them withlittle interference from downdrafts and cold pools, asin a fully developed TC. This suggests that aerosolsmight enhance weak and poorly organized TCs. Inboth the Carrió and Cotton (2011) and Krall andCotton (2012) simulations, the response to enhanced
989
 july 2012AMERICAN METEOROlOGICAl SOCIETy
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