An Operational Analysis for
Air Force 2025
:An Application of Value-Focused Thinking to FutureAir and Space Capabilities
A Research PaperPresented ToAir Force
2025
byLt Col Jack A. Jackson, Jr., PhD, AFITLt Col Brian L. Jones, PhD, AFITMaj Lee J. Lehmkuhl, DrSci, AFITwith major contributions fromCol Gregory S. Parnell, USAF Ret., PhD, VCUCol Gerald A. Hasen, PhD, AFITLt Col Gregg H. Gunsch, PhD, AFITLt Col John M. Andrew, PhD, AWCMaj Thomas A. Buter, PhD, AFITMaj Harry W. Conley, ACSCMaj Robert F. Mills, PhD, AFITMay 1996
Disclaimer
2025
is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine theconcepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and spaceforce in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense schoolenvironment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. Theviews expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of theUnited States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government.This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people orevents, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes of illustration only.Mention of various programs or technologies throughout this paper does not imply Air Force or DODendorsement of either the mission, the program, or adoption of the technology.This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is unclassified, and is clearedfor public release.
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Contents
Chapter Page
Disclaimer..........................................................................................................................................iiIllustrations........................................................................................................................................viTables.................................................................................................................................................xAcknowledgments..............................................................................................................................xiExecutive Summary..........................................................................................................................xii 1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................1Meeting the Challenge...................................................................................................................1Overview of Report......................................................................................................................4 2 Methodology.......................................................................................................................................6Challenges....................................................................................................................................6The
Operational Analysis....................................................................................7Selecting a Decision Analysis Tool..............................................................................................8Comparing Analysis Tools......................................................................................................8The Best Approach for
................................................................................10Value-Focused Thinking.......................................................................................................10Value.....................................................................................................................................11Objectives, Functions, Tasks, and Subtasks..........................................................................11Force Qualities.....................................................................................................................11Measures of Merit and Scoring Functions.............................................................................11Value Model.........................................................................................................................13Weights.................................................................................................................................14Applying the Value Model....................................................................................................15The Search for the
.....................................21Objective..............................................................................................................................21A Bottom-Up Approach........................................................................................................21Tasks and Subtasks...............................................................................................................21The Affinity Exercise............................................................................................................22Distinguishing Subtasks from Tasks......................................................................................25The Influence of the Medium on Certain Tasks.....................................................................25Functions...............................................................................................................................27Force Qualities.....................................................................................................................29Measures of Merit and Scoring Functions.............................................................................32System Identification...................................................................................................................33Alternate Futures.........................................................................................................................36Scoring the Systems....................................................................................................................37Weighting the
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