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Auckland Unemployment PDF

Auckland Unemployment PDF

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Published by George Wood

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Published by: George Wood on Nov 13, 2012
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11/13/2012

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 As a follow up to yesterday's economic forum, please find below an analysis from Geoff Cooper onemployment/unemployment statistics for Auckland, including some important information on howthese statistics are derived and should be interpreted. I trust you find this useful.
Analysis from Geoff  Cooper
 I think it is important to understand the recent HLFS figures in greater context.Auckland
s unemployment rate in the September 2012 quarter was 8.6%, which is a jump of 1.3percentage points over the June quarter (not seasonally adjusted) and 1.8 percentage points higherthan the same quarter of the previous year. To answer your question, yes
 – 
this is a significant jumpin the rate. It equates to a loss of approximately 16,600 jobs over the September quarter. There islittle doubt that the unemployment rates released last week were higher than the markets andforecasters were predicting.The table below shows that 20-24 year olds experienced are largeincrease in unemployment.Category Rate forSeptember 2012Quarter Change from lastquarter (not seasonallyadjusted) Change from samequarter of lastyear Average of last4-quarters Total (Auckland) 8.6% Was 7.3%, up 1.3 percentage points Was 6.8%, up 1.8percentage points 7.6% 15-19 (Auckland) 30.5% Was 31.0%, down 0.5 percentagepoints Was 24.1%, up 6.4percentage points 29.2% 20-24 (Auckland) 14.9% Was 10.8%, up 4.1 percentage points Was 13.9%, up 1percentage point. 13.6% 
Unemployment in Auckland
 In Auckland, employment
expanded
in four out of 12 sectors (agriculture and mining;accommodation and food services; health care and social assistance; other services). It
contracted
inthe remaining 8. The sectors which lost the greatest number of jobs over the September quarterwere: wholesale and retail (down 5,500, mostly full time workers); and education and training (down6,000 people, mostly part time workers).
Why the HLFS should be treated with caution
 Many economic commentators are slightly dismissive of the HLFS survey results
 – 
due to otheremployment indicators suggesting a different story:Here are some reasons why the situation in Auckland is not as dire as the unemployment numbersmight suggest:
·
 
In the retail sector, electronic card transactions have been on par with last quarter(both by value and number)
 – 
suggesting that sales have not seen a large drop (thatmight generate a shift in employment of this scale).
·
 
NZIER
s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows businesses have become moreoptimistic in the September quarter than the previous quarter
 – 
the net percentage
 
of Auckland firms that believe the general business situation will improve over thenext six months rose from 5.2% to 12.12%
A higher net percentage of Auckland firms expect to increase the size of theirworkforces over the next 3 months, increasing from 4.14% to 8.38%.
·
 
The Westpac McDermott Miller employment confidence survey has not changedbetween the last two quarters
·
 
NZ level data suggests consumer confidence is up slightly and on balance, thenumber of optimistic households outnumber the number of pessimistic households.
·
 
Notwithstanding this, households are finding the job market difficult, with a net63% of NZ households say that jobs are hard to get.
·
 
The Quarterly Employment Survey (also collated by Statistics NZ) is a measure of demand for labour by firms and shows that the full time equivalents employed byAuckland businesses in the September 2012 quarter was on par with the previousquarter and up slightly over the previous year
·
 
The QES also shows that the total number of work hours in the Auckland economyincreased slightly over the last quarter.
·
 
One interpretation could be that people are moving from part-time employment tofull-time employment.
·
 
We have seen an upswing in the number of residential building consents issued inAuckland
 – 
which should help to boost employment in the construction sector
The situation in the rest of NZ is different
 At a NZ level, the changes in employment demographics are different to Auckland. The mainquarter-on-quarter changes for New Zealand in unemployment were in the professional, scientific,technical, administrative and support services (down 9,900 people); transport (down 6,800 people);manufacturing (down 6,100 people); education and training (down 5,900 people); and construction(down 4,700 people)
 – 
despite a big increase in Canterbury.
Education and training
 The point of similarity between Auckland and NZ employment data has been in the education andtraining sector. While there is likely to be a seasonal element to employment in the education andtraining sector, comparing the results for the September quarter this year to last year, there is still aloss in the number of people in employed in this sector of about 5,900 people in Auckland and 9,900for NZ. There has been some weakening in international student numbers to NZ. Figures for thenumber of permanent, long term migrants entering NZ on a student visa in 2012 (year toSeptember) have fallen in the last three years which could explain some of the weakening inemployment in this sector.
Australia and China stalling
 The Australian and Chinese economies have slowed somewhat over the last quarter
 – 
and this mayhave some downstream effects for New Zealand. First, softening demand from our largest tradingpartner; and second, unemployment in Australia increased 0.3 percentage points over the last fewmonths.China also continues to experience a slowing rate of growth down from near 10% in 2011 to 7.4%currently.
Harvey Brookes Manager Economic Development
 
Phone: +64 9 307 6034 / Extn (40)7834 / Mobile +64 21 913 418 / Fax +64 9 3695484Auckland Council, Level 4, 360 Queen St, Auckland Central. Private Bag 92300, Auckland 1142.
 
Visit our website:
 
www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz
 

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