4,5

2011 /

X, Y P (X = xi , Y = yj ) = P (X = xi ) P (Y = yj ), (1 i

2, 1 j 3)
1

P (X = xi )

8/100

12/100

2/10

12/100

18/100

3/10

20/100

30/100

5/10

P (Y = yj )

4/10

6/10

X N (120,

32
100 )

X120
Z
N (0, 12 )
2
3 /100

(
0.674 = P (X k) = P

)
(
)
10
10
Z
(k 120) = P Z
(120 k)
3
3

10
(120 k) = 0.4510 = k = 119.8647
3

3
(1) E[P ] = 0.5, V [P ] =

0.52
1600

2
(2) 1600 P N (0.5, 0.5
100 ) Z =
P 0.5
N (0, 12 )
2

0.5 /1600

(
P (P 0.479) = P

0.479 0.5
Z
0.52 /1600

)
= P (Z 0.021 80) = P (Z 1.68)

= 1 (1.68) = 1 0.9535 = 0.0465

40S 2
52

239
(
)
40
2
P (S 12.5) = P X 2 12.5 = P (X 20)
5
= 1 P (X 20) = 1 0.995 = 0.005

X =

T X4
=
2
S /9

3(X4)
S

t9

X 4 + 0.611S T 1.833

P (T 1.833) =

0.1
= 0.05
2

X N (,

22
25 )

Z X
2

2 /25

= 52 (X ) N (0, 12 ) 99%

2
2
2.576 Z 2.576 2.576 X 2.576
5
5

60.9696 63.0304

x, y X, Y ZX =
Y 0
Y
X
ZY =
=
N (0, 12 )
0.9
1.1
1.1
(
)
2
2
P (|X| 2) = P (2 X 2) = P
ZX
0.9
0.9
= P (2.222 ZX 2.222) = 2(2.222) 1

X 0
=
0.9

= 2 0.9868 1 = 0.9736

P (|Y | 2) = P (1.818 ZY 1.818) = 2(1.818) 1

= 2 0.9656 1 = 0.9312
X, Y

P (|X| 2, |Y | 2) = P (|X| 2) P (|Y | 2) = 0.9736 0.9312 0.907

93

8
(1) N (0, 0.1) 100 N (100, 0.1)

(2) N (100, 0.1/10) = N (100, 0.01)

X 100
(3) n Z =
N (0, 12 )
0.1/n
P (|X 100| < 0.1) = P (100 0.1 < X < 100 + 0.1)
(
)

0.1
0.1
=P
Z
= P ( 0.1 n Z 0.1 n)
0.1/n
0.1/n

0.95 P (Z 0.1 n) 0.975

0.1 n 1.960 n 1.962 /0.1 38.4 39