Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
7Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Thayer China's Naval Modernization and U.S. Strategic Rebalancing: Implications for Stability in the South China Sea

Thayer China's Naval Modernization and U.S. Strategic Rebalancing: Implications for Stability in the South China Sea

Ratings: (0)|Views: 298|Likes:
Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer

This paper focuses on whether or not China's naval modernization and U.S. military rebalancing will lead to conflict in the Asia-Pacific. The paper also discusses the build up on Hainan Island, development on Woody Island, electyronic and communications networking among features occupies by China and trends in regional force modernization.

This paper focuses on whether or not China's naval modernization and U.S. military rebalancing will lead to conflict in the Asia-Pacific. The paper also discusses the build up on Hainan Island, development on Woody Island, electyronic and communications networking among features occupies by China and trends in regional force modernization.

More info:

Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Nov 18, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

09/19/2013

pdf

text

original

 
China’s Naval Modernization andU.S. Rebalancing: Implications forStability in the South China Sea
 
Carlyle A. Thayer
 
PLAN Luyang II-class Missile Destroyer Haikou 171 South Sea 
Paper to Panel on
Militarization and Its Implications4
th
International Workshop on
the South China Seaco‐sponsored by the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam and theVietnam Lawyers’ Association, Ho Chi Minh CityNovember 18‐21, 2012
 
2
China’s Naval Modernization and U.S. Strategic Rebalancing:Implications for Stability in the South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
*
 
Introduction
This paper examines whether or not China’s naval modernization and U.S. strategicrebalancing in East Asia will lead to conflict in the South China Sea. This paper is divided intosix parts. Part 1 discusses China’s maritime objectives. Part 2 analyses China’s forcecapability development with a specific focus on the South Sea Fleet and the development of military infrastructure on Hainan Island and the Paracel and Spratly islands. Part 3 discussesthe U.S. strategy of rebalancing its military forces in the Asia‐Pacific. Part 4 focuses onspecific U.S. initiatives with Southeast Asia’s maritime states including the Philippines andVietnam. Part five offers a net assessment of future force modernization trends and theirimpact on regional stability. Part 6, the conclusion, evaluates the prospects for maritimecooperation for regional security by reviewing (a) China‐U.S. bilateral strategic dialoguesand (b) current multilateral initiatives by the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN DefenceMinisters Meeting Plus, ASEAN Maritime Forum and the East Asia Summit.
Part 1 China’s Maritime Objectives
China’s 2010 Defence White Paper enumerated four national defence objectives: (1)safeguarding national sovereignty, security and interests of national development; (2)maintaining social harmony and stability; (3) accelerating the modernization of nationaldefence and the armed forces; and (4) maintaining world peace and stability.
1
 China’s military strategy to achieve these objectives is encapsulated in
National Military Strategic Guidelines for the New Period 
that propounds an operational doctrine termed“Active Defence.”
2
China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is tasked with three
*
Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor, The University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence ForceAcademy, Canberra. Email:c.thayer@adfa.edu.au.
1
The People’s Republic of China, State Council, Information Office,
China’s National Defense in 2010
(Beijing:March 2011).
2
Office of the Secretary of Defense,
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011
, A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000(Washington, D.C. 2012).
 
3
essential missions: defeating invasion from the sea, defending territorial sovereignty, andprotecting maritime rights. It primary area of operations are focused on the so‐called firstand second island chains. The first island chain refers to the line of islands that runs north–south from the Kuriles, Japan, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia.The second island chain extends further east of China’s coast and includes a line runningnorth‐south from the Kuriles through Japan, the Bonins, the Marianas, the Carolines, andIndonesia.With respect to China’s maritime domain, China pursues a defence doctrine known as“Offshore Defence” or “Near Seas Defence.”
3
The “Near Seas” include the Yellow Sea, EastChina Sea and South China Sea and are a PLAN priority.The PLAN is tasked with developing the capability to conduct six offensive/defensivemaritime campaigns: blockade, anti‐sea line of communication (SLOC), maritime‐landattack, anti‐ship, protection of maritime transportation, and naval base defence.China’s phenomenal economic growth has been driven by export‐orientated trade. This hasincreased China’s dependency on maritime routes to export goods and to import naturalresources. As a consequence, China has an interest in protecting vital trade routes or SLOCs.Chinese defence analysts have expressed concern about what has been termed the‘Malacca dilemma’ – the threat to China’s national security by the closure of narrow straitsor choke points in Southeast Asia.
4
 China’s phenomenal economic growth also fueled a rising demand for resources and energy.China claims most of the South China Sea on the basis of historic rights. Chinese officialsclaim the fish and other aquatic resources, minerals on the deep seabed and hydrocarbons(oil and natural gas).Five points may be drawn from the above discussion:
3
Nan Li, “The Evolution of China’s Naval Strategy and Capabilities: From ‘Near Coast” and “Near Seas’ to ‘FarSeas’,” in Phillip C. Saunders, Christopher D. Yung, Michael Swaine and Andrew Nien‐Dzu Yang, eds.,
TheChinese Navy: Expanding Capabilities, Evolving Roles
(Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press,2011), 109‐140.
4
Thomas M. Kane,
Chinese Grand Strategy and Maritime Power 
(London and Portland: Frank Cass, 2002), 127‐128.

Activity (7)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 thousand reads
1 hundred reads
Jack Heseltine liked this
Rex Tyrannosaur liked this
renelp liked this
thaiduy9007 liked this
Sam Nguyen liked this

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->