After Hugo Chavez, who is coming next? Elections in Ecuadorand Bolivia
Hugo Chavez has won the election in Venezuela for a third mandate(2013- 2019). The media and international organisations haverecognised the triumph of Chavez (54,42%), but it cannot be deniedthat it has also been a victory for the opposition leaders. HenriqueCapriles (who obtained 44,55%) has shown the possibility of constructing a united opposition against a mediatise Chavez. In thatsense, the construction of democracy now depends not only onChavez, with his “XXI socialism” discourse, but also on oppositionleaders to capitalise the vote and produce concrete proposals thatcan be identified by the population. A simple “No Chavez” is not goingto work.But are the effects of a contesting opposition, creating spill over intoother Latin American countries? Two forthcoming elections in Ecuadorand Bolivia is an example of how the power Chavez still latent (butless significant) over the region.
Ecuador: From instability to durability?
Rafael Correa has announced that he will run for a third period forPresident in Ecuador. Can this guarantee that Ecuador will becomemore stable as a country? This is probably the most difficult answerthat Correa and his political party “Alianza Pais” will attempt to ask.Since mid 90’s Ecuador has suffered from weak political institutions,starting with the president. This instability has triggered revolts anderoded the remains of Ecuador’s political and economic system. Withthe entrance of Rafael Correa in 2007, the political image of thepresident has been partially restored.How strong is Correa against its advisors? During the period 2009 –2012, Correa, on the domestic level, has the back up of theparliament. This has allowed him to produce economic reforms with aleft wing orientation. On the international level, Hugo Chavez was oneinfluential supporter of all actions done by CorreaEven there with a considerable number of political parties in Ecuador.Each of them has a specific agenda that made it easy for Correa toshow a coherent political discourse. In that sense for the comingelections, political opposition is expected to produce agreements withthe consequence of losing the trust of the public. On that idea, if theopposition wants to remain on the political scenery, they must renewtheir political leaders in order produce a coherent discourse that canchallenge Correa’s mandate (much similar to the strategy done inVenezuela by Capriles). The main objective should be to obtainmajority in the Parliament (although Correa has threatened todissolve the Congress in various occasions).