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Retail Consulting - National Retail Bulletin - J.C. Williams Group - November 2008

Retail Consulting - National Retail Bulletin - J.C. Williams Group - November 2008

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Published by Maris Daugherty
This report profiles commercial sales activity in the U.S. based on the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Conference Board in the United States. The report compares the latest monthly release of "raw" (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day differences) commercial sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year.

This report profiles commercial sales activity in the U.S. based on the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Conference Board in the United States. The report compares the latest monthly release of "raw" (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day differences) commercial sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year.

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Categories:Business/Law
Published by: Maris Daugherty on Jan 26, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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06/17/2009

 
U.S. Data Advance November 2008 Retail Sales
 
i
 
Released December 12, 2008
 
Consumers leave retailersout in the cold.
Consumers continued to limit theirspending in November as many analystsand consumers no longer viewed theeconomic recession as a temporarysituation. Consumer confidence declinedto an all time low in October (38.8),however with new political leadership onthe horizon and economic issues at theforefront, November’s consumerconfidence saw a moderate bounce to44.9. All Stores sales dropped -9%,although with the exclusion of the MotorVehicle, Parts Dealers and GasolineStation categories, the drop softens to-2.2%.November did have a few bright points.Consumers continued to focus theirspending on “needs” purchases, and theFood and Beverage Stores continued to dowell. Overall retail sales within thecategory grew 3.2%, with the Grocerysector up 2.9%. Food Services andDrinking Places also experienced growth,up 2.2%. Fast food giant McDonald’sCorp. reported a gain in U.S. same-storesales of 4.5%. Health and Personal CareStores also saw an increase, up 2.3% fromlast year.General merchandisers remained anattractive source for deal-hungryconsumers, and through Wal-Mart’sexpertise in discounting, the companyreported a 3.4% increase in its same-storesales. Notably, Costco, who many
 
expected to fare well during the recession,reported a -3% decline in U.S. same-store
 
sales. In contrast, Department Store salesdropped -6.2%. High-end departmentstore Neiman Marcus reported a drop insame-store sales of -11.9%. Overall, theGeneral Merchandise Stores categorynetted an increase of 1.3%.Yet as consumers limited their spendingand as lending policies tightened, retailsales for the Motor Vehicle and PartDealers category suffered, with a dramaticdecrease of -28.3%. This decline wasfurther evidenced by Chrysler and GM’sNovember sales falling sharply, withdrops of -47% and -41% respectively forthe month. It was possible that withuncertainty surrounding a bailout packagefor the automobile industry during themonth, consumers in the market forvehicles decided to defer purchasing untilmore information became available,further contributing to the decline.Gasoline Stations also experienced asignificant drop of -23.4%. The monetarydecline in these two categories wouldrepresent an additional $28.5 Billion inthe
 
economy.
 
Retail sales in Clothing and AccessoriesStores continued to have difficultydipping -7.4%, with retailers across theboard seeing declines.
 
Comparablestore
 
sales at The Gap were reporteddown -10% and Limited Brands down -12%. Abercrombie & Fitch had anexceptionally hard month, reportingcomparable store sales for the companydown -28%.Also seeing drops were BuildingMaterial and Garden Equipment Storescategory, whose sales declined -10%,and Furniture, Home Furnishings,Electronics and Appliance Stores,which decreased -9.4%.While e-commerce is not usuallyreported in this bulletin, it is worthmentioning that although e-commerceretail sales for the month were on parwith last year, ComScore announcedthat online sales since Cyber Mondaywere up 7% versus a year ago.After a holiday season filled with deepdiscounts and shrinking margins,retailers will be looking forward to theend of December and the beginning of anew year.
Release Date of the NextNational Retail Bulletin:
January 14,
 
2009
Please note:The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of “raw” (i.e.,unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day) retail sales figures to those in the
same calendar month of the previous year 
. The U.S. Census Bureau also reports seasonally adjusted sales that arecompared to the
 previous month within the current calendar year 
to measure change in Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believesthat using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year’s performance more accuratelyreflects the seasonality of the retail industry, and therefore, are more useful in analysis. Definitions canbe found on the U.S. Census Website:www.census.gov.
350 West Hubbard St. Ste. 240, Chicago, Il. 60654 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website:www.jcwg.com
For more information, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer (416) 921-4181, or e-mail info@jcwg.com
 
Release Date: 12/12/08
Retail Sales by Store Category
Sales for the Month of November200820072008/2007
All Stores346,890381,344-9.0%Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers48,88068,187-28.3%Gasoline Stations29,94339,111-23.4%Food and Beverage Stores49,59748,0403.2%
Grocery Stores44,08542,8592.9%
Health and Personal Care Stores20,06219,6102.3%Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores24,50027,226-10.0%General Merchandise Stores54,84854,1561.3%
Department Stores (excluding leased departments)19,67220,965-6.2%
Clothing and Accessories Stores19,34120,888-7.4%Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores19,78921,832-9.4%
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores9,29310,737-13.4%Electronics and Appliance Stores10,49611,095-5.4%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores7,6227,961-4.3%Miscellaneous Store Retailers9,6809,989-3.1%Nonstore Retailers26,07828,596-8.8%
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Food Services and Drinking Places36,55035,7482.2%
 Year to Date Sales Ending November200820072008/2007
All Stores4,085,6644,052,7150.8%Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers752,362849,388-11.4%Gasoline Stations465,694406,85414.5%Food and Beverage Stores537,033508,1795.7%
Grocery Stores481,912455,6145.8%
Health and Personal Care Stores223,652215,5983.7%Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores304,206313,744-3.0%General Merchandise Stores526,043505,0804.2%
Department Stores (excluding leased departments)173,103180,192-3.9%
Clothing and Accessories Stores192,696193,416-0.4%Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores196,468203,552-3.5%
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores99,500107,485-7.4%Electronics and Appliance Stores96,96896,0670.9%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores76,34675,2521.5%Miscellaneous Store Retailers107,899107,1610.7%Nonstore Retailers282,670270,7304.4%Food Services and Drinking Places420,595403,7614.2%
Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted
350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website:www.jcwg.comFor more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail info@jcwg.com

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