Professional Documents
Culture Documents
10 0
12 0
14 0
16 0
18 0
10 1
12 1
10 0
10 1
10 2
10 3
10 4
10 5
9 4
9 6
9 8
1 0 20 03 20 04 IC Bre t E n 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 N M WI Y EX T
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
100 000
100 500
200 000
200 500
300 000
300 500
400 000
400 500
500 00
ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 a r-1 p 7 1 -1 -2 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 0 9 1 -0 -2 2 9 1
(ICE, $/b)
0 Ln og Sh rt o
Crude oil
20 07
20 08
Nt e
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
8 6
8 7
8 8
8 9
9 0
9 1
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 5
(NYMEX, $/b)
(daily closing)
ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 1 -1 -2 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 0 9 1 -0 -2 2 9 1
Benchmark spreads
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8
1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2
-4 -6 -8 -1 0
1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2
W Im u B n T in s re t Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra
IC Bre t E n
N E WI YM X T
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50
c
3 40 3 30 3 20 3 10 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 yea a era r v ge 20 11 20 12
20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d
90 4 90 3 90 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d
OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 30 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2 m r-1 a 2 m j-1 a 2 ju 2 l-1 se -1 p 2 200 40 O PEC 2 p d ctio -1 ro u n O PEC 1 p d ctio -1 ro u n
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2
US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il
US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 0 7 0 1 v. 21 02
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 A (M a sia in s) U (W I) S T E ro e (B n u p re t) P rsia G lf (D b i) e n u ua
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e s o n d
4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e
Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 1 ,4 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02
8 ,9 5y a g v. 20 11 20 12 9 ,1 9 ,3 9 ,5
8 ,7
8 ,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d
ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
-2 5
ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02 21 02
20 09
21 00
21 01
EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6
21 02
Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0
a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0
U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2
10
21 02
Disclosures
The analysis and valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties; different assumptions could result in materially different results. The inclusion of any such valuations, projections and forecasts in this report should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the SEB Group or any person or entity within the SEB Group that such valuations, projections and forecasts or their underlying assumptions and estimates will be met or realized. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. This document does not constitute investment advice and is being provided to you without regard to your investment objectives or circumstances. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base investment decisions upon such investigations as they deem necessary. This document does not constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or solicitation of, any offer to subscribe for any securities or other financial instruments.
Conflicts of Interest
SEB has in place a Conflicts of Interest Policy designed, amongst other things, to promote the independence and objectivity of reports produced by its Research departments, which are separated from the rest of SEB business areas by information barriers; as such, research reports are independent and based solely on publicly available information. Your attention is drawn to the fact that a member of, or an entity associated with, SEB or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of such members (a) may be represented on the board of directors or similar supervisory entity of the companies mentioned herein (b) may, to the extent permitted by law, have a position in the securities of (or options, warrants or rights with respect to, or interest in the securities of the companies mentioned herein or may make a market or act as principal in any transactions in such securities (c) may, acting as principal or as agent, deal in investments in or with companies mentioned herein, and (d) may from time to time provide investment banking, underwriting or other services to, or solicit investment banking, underwriting or other business from the companies mentioned herein.
Recipients
In the UK, this report is directed at and is for distribution only to (I) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (The Order) or (II) high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons. This report must not be acted on or relied upon by persons in the UK who are not relevant persons. In the US, this report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. U.S. persons wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so by contacting Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEBAB). SEBAB accepts responsibility for the content of this report in connection with its distribution in the US. The distribution of this document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions by law, and persons into whose possession this documents comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
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