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nov13.pdf

nov13.pdf

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Published by Pradeep Joshi

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Published by: Pradeep Joshi on Nov 25, 2012
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12/04/2012

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Lurking variable.
A variable that has an important effectand yet is not included amongst thepredictor variables under consideration.Perhaps its existence is unknown or itseffect unsuspected.Mosteller and Tukey’s World War II example
Simpson’s Paradox.
Medical treatment and outcome
outcomesuccessfailure1100100treatment211080success rate under 1: 100/200 = .50success rate under 2: 110/190 = .579treatment 2 looks the better
 
Actually the data were aggregated(collapsed) over gendermaleoutcomesuccessfailure16020treatment210050success rate under 1: 60/80 = .75success rate under 2: 100/150 = .67treatment 1 looks the betterfemalesuccessfailure14080treatment21030success rate under 1: 40/120 = .33success rate under 2: 10/40 = .25treatment 1 looks the better
 
The conclusion of the study has beenreversed.The two sexes were weighted differently withtreatment 1 going to 80 males and 120females, while treatment 2 went to 150males and 40 females.Gender is a lurking variableDifficulty results from a lurking variableand combination of unequal group sizes.If all groups of same size, circumstancedoesn’t arise.Solutions for lurking variables – eliminatethem, hold them constant, or make them partof the study.
Smoking and 20yr survival rate for 1314English women.
(started 1972-4)outcomedeadaliveyes139443smokerno23050224% (139/582) of the smokers died and 31%(230/732) of the nonsmokers.

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