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Mellman Public Poll Memo

Mellman Public Poll Memo

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Published by Umang Patel

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Published by: Umang Patel on Nov 26, 2012
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11/29/2013

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0%20%40%60%80%100%
Reduce Deficit Create Jobs
29%67%
Jobs Are The Clear Priority Over The Deficit
Which would you rather have Congress and the President focus on: reducing the federal budget deficit or creating jobs?
24%strongly57%strongly
TO: NEA, SEIU, AFSCMEFROM:The Mellman Group, Inc.RE:Voters Overwhelmingly Oppose CutsDATE:November 18, 2012
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 1,000 2012 general election voters. Interviews were conducted bytelephone November 9-12, 2012 using a national registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.1% atthe 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, depending on size.
Our just-completed survey of 2012 voters carriesa clear message:the American people opposecrippling austerity measures as well as a “grand bargain” that would undermine ourcommitment to senior citizens, schools and public safety in order to balance the federal budget. Rather, voters prioritize job creation, seeingthat as the most effective route to deficitreduction,along with higher taxes on the wealthy.
BY
2-
TO
-1
VOTERS PREFER THAT CONGRESSAND THE PRESIDENT FOCUS ON JOBCREATION RATHER THAN DEFICIT REDUCTION
Americans clearlyprioritize job creationover deficit reduction.Twice as manyAmericans would rathersee Congress and thePresident focus oncreating jobs (67%) thanon reducing the deficit(29%). These sentimentsare shared across partylines. Sizeable majoritiesof Democrats (81%) andindependents (68%)prioritize jobs over thedeficit, and even anarrower majority ofRepublicans agree (51% jobs to 44% deficit). These views also extend across the country with 65% of voters in theNortheast prioritizing jobs over deficit reduction (30% deficit reduction), as well as 65% in the
 
The Mellman Group, Inc. Page 2
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0%20%40%60%80%100%
Social Security Medicare Education Funding Fed. funds for local police and fire
86%78%84%83%
Huge Majorities Believe The Budget Can Be BalancedWithout Cutting Social Security, Medicare Or Education
 In order to reduce the deficit, do you think it will be necessary to cut ______, or can we reduce the deficit without cutting ______?
% We can reduce deficit without cutting 
 
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Democrat Republican Independent
73%31%52%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Democrat Republican Independent
 
7%41%22%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Democrat Republican Independent
18%13%15%
Majorities Of Democrats And Independents, And ManyRepublicans, Want High-Income Tax Increases And No Cuts
 Increase taxes on the wealthiest and cut spending on major  programs like Medicare, Social Security and education
 In order to balance the budget and reduce the nation’s debt, Congress needs to…
 Increase taxes on the wealthiest,invest in job creation protect  priorities like Medicare, Social Security and education Leave taxes alone and cut  spending on major programs like Medicare, Social Security and education
Midwest (32% deficit reduction), 67% in the South (28% deficit reduction), and 72% in the West(24% deficit reduction). Thepriority accorded to job creation alsocutsacross the generations,with younger voters (under 50: 68% jobs, 29% reduce deficit)and older voters (over 50: 67% jobs, 28% reduce deficit) equally clear in their preference for a focus on jobsover deficits.
VOTERS BELIEVE MEDICARE
,
MEDICAID
,
SOCIAL SECURITY AND EDUCATION CAN ANDSHOULD BE PROTECTED AS CONGRESS MOVES TO CUTTHE BUDGET
A clear majority,including mostindependents, wantneither a “grand bargain” that wouldraise taxes on thewealthy and cutprograms nor simplycuts alone to reduce the budget deficit. Rather,53% of Americans wantto see the wealthy paytheir fair share soCongress can invest in job creation and stillprotect our nationalpriorities. Just 16%support the grand bargain combining tax hikes on high-income earners with cuts to Medicare,Social Security andeducation. Only 23% favorspending cuts withoutincreasedrevenues.Majorities of Democrats(73%) and independents(52%) prefer tax hikes on thewealthy and investments in job creation whileprotecting Medicare, SocialSecurity and education,andalmost a third ofRepublicans agree (31%).Indeed, voters reject theview that Medicare,Social
 
The Mellman Group, Inc. Page 3
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0%20%40%60%80%100%
Angry Satisfied
62%24%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Angry Satisfied
57%27%
Majorities Would Be Angry If Their Member Of CongressBroke Their Promise To Protect S.S., Medicare Or Education
Social Security and Medicare
 If in the next month your Member of Congress proposed cutting _____, would you feel: A) Angrythat your Member of Congress broke their promise B) Satisfiedthat Your Member of Congress was doing what was best for the country?
 Education
 
48%strongly14%strongly53%strongly16%strongly
Security or education need to be cut in order to reducethe deficit. Large majorities believedeficit reduction can be achieved without cutting Social Security (86%), Medicare(78%),education (84%) or federal funding for local police and firefighters (83%). This view tooisshared across the political spectrum. Even among Republicans, supermajorities reject the ideathat cutting Social Security (80%), Medicare (68%), education(69%), or police and fire (72%)are necessary to tame the deficit.In addition,voters overwhelmingly oppose cuts to these programs. Eighty-nine percent (89%)oppose cuts in nursing home aid for the elderly covered by Medicaid. Asimilarlyoverwhelming 87% oppose cuts toSocial Security benefits. Eighty three percent (83%)opposecuts tohealth insurancefor kids covered by Medicaid, while 82% oppose cuts tofederalfunding for K-12 education, and 80% opposeMedicarecuts. Seventy-five percent (75%) ofvoters also oppose cuttingMedicaid,while 74% oppose cuttingfederal funding for collegefinancial aid and student loans, and 62% oppose ending emergency unemployment benefits.
LAWMAKERS WHO PUSH FOR CUTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY
,
MEDICARE OR EDUCATIONWILLFACE AN ANGRY ELECTORATE IN
2014
Voters make it clear thatthey will not toleratecuts to importantgovernment services.Majorities said theywould feel angry if theirmember of Congressproposed cuts to SocialSecurity and Medicare(57%) or education(62%), rather than beingsatisfied theirrepresentative wasdoing what was best forthe country (27% and24%, respectively).Among independents, a51% majority shared thesense of anger at a Member who proposed Social Security/ Medicare cuts, and 65% wouldbeangry over education cuts. Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle will find little relieffrom their party bases should they push for cuts. Among Republicans, 49% would be angryand 32% would be satisfied if their representative proposed cutting Social Security orMedicare, with a similar split of 46% to 36% for education cuts. Lawmakers face even greater

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