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Pew Fiscal Cliff Report

Pew Fiscal Cliff Report

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Published by: Trent Seibert on Nov 26, 2012
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12/04/2012

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PEW CENTER ON THE STATESFiSCAl FEdERAliSm iNiTiATivE
TheImpacTof ThefIscal clIffon The sTaTes
 

 
NoVeMBer 2012
The Pew Center on the States is a division of The Pew Charitable Trusts that identifies andadvances effective solutions to critical issues facing states. Pew is a nonprofit organizationthat applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the public, andstimulate civic life.The Pew Fiscal Federalism Initiative examines the federal-state relationship and the impactof federal spending, tax policy, and regulatory decisions on the states to enrich policy debatesabout long-term fiscal stability at all levels of government.
PEW CENTER ON THE STATES
Susan K. Urahn, managing director
Ingrid Schroeder Anne StaufferLori Metcalf Kasia O’Neill MurrayMark RobynSam Rosen-Amy Andreas Westgaard John Burrows
ACKNOWlEdGmENTS 
 Valuable research support was provided by Sarah Babbage, Sara Bencic, Kavita Choudhry, SaraDube, Diana Elliott, and Kil Huh. We would like to thank Gaye Williams, Scott Greenberger, Jeremy Ratner, Carla Uriona, Evan Potler, Frederick Schecker, Jennifer Peltak, and JenniferDoctors for providing valuable feedback and production assistance on this report.The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center provided research on the tax sections as well asvaluable feedback and guidance throughout the project.This report benefited tremendously from the insights and expertise of five external reviewers:Ronald Alt, senior manager-economic and policy research, Federation of Tax Administrators;former state budget director John Cape and former state budget director Randy Bauer,managing director and director, Public Financial Management Inc.; Robert Dennis, formerassistant director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division of the Congressional Budget Office; and Victor J. Miller, former director, Federal Funds Information for States. These experts providedfeedback and guidance at critical stages during the project. Although they have reviewed thereport, neither they nor their organizations necessarily endorse its findings or conclusions.
For additional information on the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Fiscal FederalismInitiative, please visitwww.pewtrusts.orgor email us atfiscal-federalism@pewtrusts.org.
This report is intended for educational and informational purposes. References to specific policy makersor companies have been included solely to advance these purposes and do not constitute an endorsement,sponsorship or recommendation by The Pew Charitable Trusts.©November 2012 The Pew Charitable Trusts. All Rights Reserved.901 E Street NW, 10th Floor 2005 Market Street, Suite 1700 Washington, DC 20004 Philadelphia, PA 19103
 
Coes
Executive Summary 2The Fiscal Cliff 5
Table 1: Deficit Reduction Resulting from the Fiscal Cliff 
7The Scheduled Tax Changes 9
Table 2: Direct Impact of the Fiscal Cliff on State Tax Revenues
15The Scheduled Spending Changes 18
Table 3: Estimated Cuts Resulting from Sequestration
19
Figure 1: Federal Grants Subject to Sequester as a Percentage of State Revenue
21
Figure 2: Total Federal Spending on Procurement,Salaries, and Wages as a Percentage of State GDP
22
Figure 3: Federal Defense Spending on Procurement,Salaries, and Wages as a Percentage of State GDP
23
Figure 4: Federal Nondefense Spending on Procurement,Salaries, and Wages as a Percentage of State GDP
24
Figure 5: Federal Nondefense Workforceas a Percentage of Total Employed in State
25
Table 4: Selected Indicators of States’ Potential Vulnerabilities to Spending Cuts in the Fiscal Cliff 
27Endnotes 28

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