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NAB Online Retail Index Oct 2012.pdf

NAB Online Retail Index Oct 2012.pdf

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Published by: Morgan Campbell on Nov 28, 2012
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12/04/2012

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1
NAB Online Retail Sales Index
Indepth report – October 2012
n
Australia’s online retail sales are continuing to climb, upto A$12.3 billion in the year ended October 2012, but ornow the share o total spending is still modest, at around5.6%. The rate o growth in online sales has strengthenedconsiderably over the last six months, ollowing somethingo a slowdown in the early part o 2012, with growth oaround 26% year-on-year in October, compared with 2.2%or traditional retailing in September.Domestic retailers have driven the growth in online salesover recent months, with international retailers lagging alittle behind. Domestic retailers have been the dominantplayers in the online space, accounting or almost three-quarters o sales in the year to October.Those aged in their 30s and 40s remain the key demographicor online spending, with the under 30s age group laggingon a per capita basis – although they do record marginallyaster growth rates than any other age group.The strongest spending patterns are in the Australian CapitalTerritory, the Northern Territory and Western Australia, withthe latter outperorming the bulk o the country in growth –at 36% year-on-year in October.This is just a snapshot o the wealth o inormationcontained in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index. Enjoy therest o the report.
– Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist, NAB
n
What is o primary interest in our latest NAB OnlineRetail Sales Index is the growth our domestic retailers haveexperienced compared to their international counterparts.We’re seeing strong online growth rom local retailersas online becomes an integral sales and distributionchannel. In part, this can be attributed to retail businessesunderstanding their customers’ channel preerences andresponding accordingly by providing their customers withchoice in how they engage and make their purchases.The opportunities and challenges aced by our retail clients,both domestic and international, online and traditional,high street versus shopping centres, has a direct ow-oneect and implications or other sectors rom transport,logistics and property. Many o our clients in these sectorshave drawn upon the insights in this Index as they adapttheir business models to the ever-changing landscapeo Australia’s retail sector – investment, innovation andadaptability are all crucial ingredients or success.
– Tiernan White, Retail Sector Head & Head of NABCorporate (NSW)
© 2012 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence 230686
Retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 1:
Growth in online sales vs. retailsales
(%, yoy)
 
Jan-
Jul- Jan-
Jul-

Chart 2:
Growth in online sales by retaillocation
(%, yoy)
Jan-Jul- Jan- Jul-
InternationalDomestic
Table 1.
Key online retail statistics
Index pointsyoy growth (%)
Aug12Sep12Oct12Aug12Sep12Oct12
OnlineIndex210.1200.4208.721.723.426.4Domesticsales201.3192.3202.022.224.928.0Internationalsales238.1226.4230.219.919.121.9
All data is non-seasonally adjusted (nsa). Online sales data is produced by Quantium.Traditional retail sales data is sourced rom the Australian Bureau o Statistics (ABS).
 
2
22%26%
Growth in traditionalretail sales (September)
At a glance
Domestic vs international
(nsa, October yoy)
Traditional vs online
(nsa, October yoy)Growth in onlineretail sales
2.2%
Growth in domesticonline retail salesGrowth in internationalonline retail sales
5.6%
Domestic online retailers accountedfor around % of total online salesOnline purchases hit A$.bn or.% of the size of traditional retailing
74%28%
Share of spending by state
Share of spend (%)
NT
.
%
QLD
.
%
SA
.
%
Per capita (Index)
NSW VICQLDWA SATASACT NT .......
WA
.
%
ACT
.
%
TAS
.
%
NSW
.
%
VIC
.
%
WA Australia excl. WA
Focus on WA
Growth of spend (% yoy)
Growth of spending by regions s s +<..........Average annual growth rate by age group
WA – regional purchases
%
%
%
Australia – regional purchasesAustralia – metropolitan purchases
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT SUM UP TO % DUE TO ROUNDING
Share of total online spend by sector and age group
Share of spend (%)
+
Sector 1:
Online Auctions,Department Stores, Fashion,Cosmetics, Variety Stores
Sector 2:
Home, Furniture,Appliances, Electronics
Sector 3: 
Recreation, Toys, Games& Hobbies, Music, Movies, Books
Sector 4: 
Groceries, Liquor,Specialised Food

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%
%

%

%
%

%

%

%
Allages<sss
NAB Online Retail Sales Index
 
3
Online Retail Sales Indexcontinues to trend higher
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index has continuedto trend upwards in recent months, to 209 pointsin October 2012 (chart 3).During the 12 months to October 2012, Australia’sonline retail spending totalled around A$12.3 billion.When compared with traditional bricks & mortarretail sales, the level o online spending remainsquite modest. For the year to September 2012,traditional retail sales* totalled A$221 billion –indicating that online sales are equivalent toaround 5.6% o the traditional sector.As detailed on page 4, the composition otraditional and online retail sales diers notably.When ood & beverages are excluded rom bothseries, online retail sales increases to almost 9.1%o total non-ood spending (up rom 8.7% in July).
Online sales record a pickupin growth rates – up 26% yoyin October
The rate o growth in online sales has strengthenedconsiderably over the last six months, ollowing aslowdown in the early part o 2012.In October, online retail sales grew by around 26%year-on-year, compared with the low point o just14% year-on-year in May (chart 4).Growth rates or the traditional retail sector arear more modest – coming o a considerably largerbase – with an increase o 2.2% year-on-year inSeptember (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis).When seasonal actors are included, growth ratesor the traditional sector have eased slightly inrecent months, back to around 3% year-on-yearin October.
ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 3:
Online index vs. retail sales
(nsa, monthly)
 
Jan-
Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
Jul-
Retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 4:
Growth in online sales vs. retailsales
(%, yoy)
 
Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-

Chart 5:
Growth in online sales by retaillocation
(%, yoy)
Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-
InternationalDomestic
Indepth report – October 2012
* Traditional retail sales exclude caés, restaurants and takeaway ood to create alike-or-like comparison.

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