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“Kuwait Energy Demand Model for Forecasting and Planning – Revisited,” by Mohamed Nagy Eltony and Mohammed A. Al-Awadi

“Kuwait Energy Demand Model for Forecasting and Planning – Revisited,” by Mohamed Nagy Eltony and Mohammed A. Al-Awadi

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This paper contains a discussion of the Kuwait energy demand model and how the original model, which was built in 1997, was upgraded in 2006, along with its simulation under various scenarios for the 2005-2015 time period. As domestic energy demand surges upwards in Kuwait, there are increasing economic ramifications as less energy is available for export to world markets. This research examines the growth of Kuwaiti energy demand in the residential, commercial, public, and industrial sectors. The scenarios examined include a base-line, moderate, extreme, and the complete removal of subsidies; additionally, the effects on demand are presented along with the policy implications. Under the assumption of the base-line scenario, there will be no incentives for energy consumers to conserve and aggregate demand is expected to grow at about 2.2 percent annually. The moderate scenario projects a compound annual growth in aggregate domestic energy consumption of about 1.02 percent annually throughout the forecast period due to increasing energy prices, which were effective in slowing down the domestic demand growth. The aim of the extreme scenario is to examine the response by various sectors to a deliberate shock in energy prices, which results in a projected compound annual growth rate for the aggregate energy usage of about 0.91 percent. Finally, the removal of energy subsidies results in a severe slowing in the growth rate of total domestic energy consumption. (Published in the Journal of Energy and Development as Mohamed Nagy Eltony and Mohammed A. Al-Awadi, “Kuwait Energy Demand Model for Forecasting and Planning – Revisited,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 135–163.)

This paper contains a discussion of the Kuwait energy demand model and how the original model, which was built in 1997, was upgraded in 2006, along with its simulation under various scenarios for the 2005-2015 time period. As domestic energy demand surges upwards in Kuwait, there are increasing economic ramifications as less energy is available for export to world markets. This research examines the growth of Kuwaiti energy demand in the residential, commercial, public, and industrial sectors. The scenarios examined include a base-line, moderate, extreme, and the complete removal of subsidies; additionally, the effects on demand are presented along with the policy implications. Under the assumption of the base-line scenario, there will be no incentives for energy consumers to conserve and aggregate demand is expected to grow at about 2.2 percent annually. The moderate scenario projects a compound annual growth in aggregate domestic energy consumption of about 1.02 percent annually throughout the forecast period due to increasing energy prices, which were effective in slowing down the domestic demand growth. The aim of the extreme scenario is to examine the response by various sectors to a deliberate shock in energy prices, which results in a projected compound annual growth rate for the aggregate energy usage of about 0.91 percent. Finally, the removal of energy subsidies results in a severe slowing in the growth rate of total domestic energy consumption. (Published in the Journal of Energy and Development as Mohamed Nagy Eltony and Mohammed A. Al-Awadi, “Kuwait Energy Demand Model for Forecasting and Planning – Revisited,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 2 (spring 2011, copyright 2012), pp. 135–163.)

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05/14/2014

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