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Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

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The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.

Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.

The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.

Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.

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08/18/2014

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Global Trends 2030: 
AlternAtiveWorlds
a publication of the National Intelligence Council 
 
Global Trends 2030: 
AlternAtiveWorlds
a publication of the National Intelligence Council 
december 2012
 
NIC 2012-001
Isbn 978-1-929667-21-5
To view electronic version:
 
Dear Reader:
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
is the th installment in the National IntelligenceCouncil’s series aimed at providing a ramework or thinking about the uture. As with previouseditions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identiying critical trends andpotential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those actors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are ar less certain.Finally, as our appreciation o the diversity and complexity o various actors has grown, we haveincreased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might ace. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting utures.It is our contention that the uture is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result o an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our eort is to encouragedecisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan or the long term so thatnegative utures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance o unolding.I would like to point out several innovations in
Global Trends 2030.
This volume starts with a look back at the our previous Global Trends reports. We were buoyed by the overall positive review in thestudy we commissioned, but cognizant too o the scope or needed changes, which we have tried toincorporate in this volume.Our aim has been to make this eort as collaborative as possible, believing that a diversity o perspectives enriches the work. We have reached out to experts ar beyond Washington, D.C. Wehave held numerous meetings, many in universities, in Indiana, Texas, Caliornia, New Mexico,Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Colorado, Tennessee, New York, and New Jersey. We also sponsored a public blog which eatured blog posts and comments by experts on key themesdiscussed in
Global Trends 2030.
The blog had over 140 posts and over 200 comments. As o mid-October, it had 71,000 hits and had been viewed by readers in 167 dierent countries. To ensurethat the blog posts can continue to be consulted, we are linking them to the web and e-book versionso the nal published report. We expanded our engagement overseas by holding meetings on the initial drat in close to 20countries. Many times this was at the invitation o governments, businesses, universities, or think tanks. One benecial outcome o the NIC’s quadrennial eorts has been the growing interestelsewhere in global trends, including elaboration by others on their own works, which weencourage. Because o the widespread interest in how 
Global Trends 2030 
is seen elsewhere, wehave detailed the reactions o our international experts to the initial drat in a special box ollowingthe introduction.
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