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Global Scenarios to 2025
 
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Contents
Section 1: IntroductionSection 2: Executive SummarySection 3:
 Borrowed Time
 Section 4:
Fragmented World 
 Section 5:
Constant Renewal 
 Section 6: ConclusionAnnex: Recommended Reading/ReferencesProject Team Members
 
 3
Section 1: Introduction
Scenario planning has become an increasingly important strategic planning tool as morecorporations, organizations, and government agencies begin to use scenarios. This publication presents a set of three interdisciplinary, global scenarios to 2025 that providedifferent pictures of possible futures.
What are scenarios?
Scenarios are plausible alternative views about how the future may develop.
They differ from forecasting in that they do not attempt to predict the future based on linear extrapolations of the past. Scenarios do not seek to project the future. Instead, they focuson the identification of discontinuities and how these could potentially develop as a setover time. Scenario analysis allows us to anticipate future developments, and to evaluatestrategies for responding to these events or conditions through an exploration of alternative futures.Several alternative schools of scenario development have evolved over time and for the purpose of the NIC global scenarios to 2025 project, the
 Intuitive Logics School 
waschosen to develop the scenarios. This school of scenario planning places more emphasison the qualitative logic of the scenarios and the resulting plots can easily stimulate debateamong a diverse group of stakeholders. Encouraging users to challenge their mentalmodels, these scenarios help us to prepare for the different futures that may unfold.We also decided to use the deductive scenario development process which is a verystructured step-by-step approach. The deductive approach starts in the present and endswith a range of plausible futures.
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