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Europe Scenarios 2020

Europe Scenarios 2020

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Published by Blue
From stagnation to decline. The first scenario describes low or no economic growth as well as lack of political changes because the missing financial resources make economic and social reforms impossible. This leads to growing frustration and criticism toward the EU institutions.

The second scenario forecasts small and slow economic growth of one to two percent. This is a multi-speed Europe where the big countries would go in front and some of the new members would grow up to the big ones by reducing the gap between them. Responses to immigration issues or democratic challenges would be inconsistent. An enlargement toward Turkey and the Ukraine is done.

The third scenario forecasts significant economic growth based on major reforms. The impetus for reform may come as a response to political crisis, the collapse of the Euro orexternal challenges. It involves a redefinition of the social contract. The issue of migration is dealt with which is facilitated by economic growth. There is a change in economic direction, which would transform Europe as we know it today.

The fourth scenario describes a rift between the US and Europe within the framework of a multi-polar world system. The sources of the rift might be the result of disagreement over how to deal with weapons of mass destruction, the continuing war on terror, Russia and energy policy, China’s emergence as a partner or rival, or the Middle East peace process. This scenario is compatible with the three previous ones.
From stagnation to decline. The first scenario describes low or no economic growth as well as lack of political changes because the missing financial resources make economic and social reforms impossible. This leads to growing frustration and criticism toward the EU institutions.

The second scenario forecasts small and slow economic growth of one to two percent. This is a multi-speed Europe where the big countries would go in front and some of the new members would grow up to the big ones by reducing the gap between them. Responses to immigration issues or democratic challenges would be inconsistent. An enlargement toward Turkey and the Ukraine is done.

The third scenario forecasts significant economic growth based on major reforms. The impetus for reform may come as a response to political crisis, the collapse of the Euro orexternal challenges. It involves a redefinition of the social contract. The issue of migration is dealt with which is facilitated by economic growth. There is a change in economic direction, which would transform Europe as we know it today.

The fourth scenario describes a rift between the US and Europe within the framework of a multi-polar world system. The sources of the rift might be the result of disagreement over how to deal with weapons of mass destruction, the continuing war on terror, Russia and energy policy, China’s emergence as a partner or rival, or the Middle East peace process. This scenario is compatible with the three previous ones.

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Published by: Blue on Feb 03, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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02/04/2011

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