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G
LOBAL
 
T
RENDS
 
2015
:
 
A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
 
December 2000To Purchase a Hardcopy (GPO stock number 041-015-00211-2) (5.87MB)
 
CONTENTS
 
Note on Process
 
In undertaking this comprehensive analysis, the NIC worked actively with a range ofnongovernmental institutions and experts. We began the analysis with two workshopsfocusing on drivers and alternative futures, as the appendix describes. Subsequently,numerous specialists from academia and the private sector contributed to every aspect ofthe study, from demographics to developments in science and technology, from the globalarms market to implications for the United States. Many of the judgments in this paperderive from our efforts to distill the diverse views expressed at these conferences orrelated workshops. Major conferences cosponsored by the NIC with other government andprivate centers in support of
Global Trends 2015
included:
•
 
Foreign Reactions to the Revolution in Military Affairs
(Georgetown University).
•
 
Evolution of the Nation-State
(University of Maryland).
•
 
Trends in Democratization
(CIA and academic experts).
•
 
American Economic Power
(Industry & Trade Strategies, San Francisco, CA).
•
 
Transformation of Defense Industries
(International Institute for StrategicStudies, London, UK).
•
 
Alternative Futures in War and Conflict
(Defense Intelligence Agency and NavalWar College, Newport, RI, and CIA).
•
 
Out of the Box and Into the Future: A Dialogue Between Warfighters andScientists on Far Future Warfare
(Potomac Institute, Arlington, VA).
•
 
Future Threat Technologies Symposium
(MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA).
•
 
The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Technological Trends
 (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).
•
 
The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Political, Economic, andSocial Consequences
(RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).
•
 
The Middle East: The Media, Information Technology, and the Internet
(TheNational Defense University, Fort McNair, Washington, DC).
 
•
 
Global Migration Trends and Their Implications for the United States
(CarnegieEndowment for International Peace, Washington, DC).
•
 
Alternative Global Futures: 2000-2015
(Department of State/Bureau ofIntelligence and Research and CIA's Global Futures Project).In October 2000, the draft report was discussed with outside experts, including RichardCooper and Joseph Nye (Harvard University), Richard Haass (Brookings Institution),James Steinberg (Markle Foundation), and Jessica Mathews (Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace). Their comments and suggestions are incorporated in the report.
CONTENTS
 
Contents
 
Note on Process
 
Letter from the Director of Central Intelligence
 
Letter from the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
 
Overview
 
The Drivers and Trends
 
Key Uncertainties: Technology Will Alter Outcomes
 
Key Challenges to Governance: People Will Decide
 
Discussion
 
Population Trends
 
Divergent Aging Patterns
 
Movement of People
 
Health
 
Natural Resources and Environment
 
Food
 
Water
 
Energy
 
Environment
 
Science and Technology
 
Information Technology
 
Biotechnology
 
Other Technologies
 
The Global Economy
 
Dynamism and Growth
 
 
 
Unequal Growth Prospects and Distribution
 
Economic Crises and Resilience
 
National and International Governance
 
Nonstate Actors
 
Criminal Organizations and Networks
 
Changing Communal Identities and Networks
 
Overall Impacts on States
 
International Cooperation
 
Future Conflict
 
Internal Conflicts
 
Transnational Terrorism
 
Interstate Conflicts
 
Reacting to US Military Superiority
 
Major Regions
 
East and Southeast Asia
 
South Asia
 
Russia and Eurasia
 
Middle East and North Africa
 
Sub-Saharan Africa
 
Europe
 
Canada
 
Latin America
 
Appendix
 
Four Alternative Global Futures
 
Overview
 
Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About theFuture With Nongovernment Experts
 
Over the past 15 months, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), in close collaborationwith US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government, hasworked to identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2015.
 
The key drivers identified are:
 
(l) Demographics.
 
(2) Natural resources and environment.
 
(3) Science and technology.
 
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