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Global Trends 2030

Global Trends 2030

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Published by Doug Stanglin

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Published by: Doug Stanglin on Dec 10, 2012
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Global Trends 2030: 
AlternAtiveWorlds
a publication of the National Intelligence Council 
 
Global Trends 2030: 
AlternAtiveWorlds
a publication of the National Intelligence Council 
december 2012
 
NIC 2012-001
Isbn 978-1-929667-21-5
To view electronic version:
 
Dear Reader:
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
is the th installment in the National IntelligenceCouncil’s series aimed at providing a ramework or thinking about the uture. As with previouseditions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identiying critical trends andpotential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those actors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are ar less certain.Finally, as our appreciation o the diversity and complexity o various actors has grown, we haveincreased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might ace. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting utures.It is our contention that the uture is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result o an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our eort is to encouragedecisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan or the long term so thatnegative utures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance o unolding.I would like to point out several innovations in
Global Trends 2030.
This volume starts with a look back at the our previous Global Trends reports. We were buoyed by the overall positive review in thestudy we commissioned, but cognizant too o the scope or needed changes, which we have tried toincorporate in this volume.Our aim has been to make this eort as collaborative as possible, believing that a diversity o perspectives enriches the work. We have reached out to experts ar beyond Washington, D.C. Wehave held numerous meetings, many in universities, in Indiana, Texas, Caliornia, New Mexico,Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Colorado, Tennessee, New York, and New Jersey. We also sponsored a public blog which eatured blog posts and comments by experts on key themesdiscussed in
Global Trends 2030.
The blog had over 140 posts and over 200 comments. As o mid-October, it had 71,000 hits and had been viewed by readers in 167 dierent countries. To ensurethat the blog posts can continue to be consulted, we are linking them to the web and e-book versionso the nal published report. We expanded our engagement overseas by holding meetings on the initial drat in close to 20countries. Many times this was at the invitation o governments, businesses, universities, or think tanks. One benecial outcome o the NIC’s quadrennial eorts has been the growing interestelsewhere in global trends, including elaboration by others on their own works, which weencourage. Because o the widespread interest in how 
Global Trends 2030 
is seen elsewhere, wehave detailed the reactions o our international experts to the initial drat in a special box ollowingthe introduction.
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