CU TRC BI TIU LUN

1.Bin i kh hu ton cu l g? 2.Biu hin ca s bin i kh hu ton cu. 3.Nguyn nhn gy ra bin i kh hu ton cu 4.Hin trng bin i kh hu ton cu

5.Hu qu ca s bin i kh hu ton cu

6.Bin i kh hu ton cu tc ng n Vit Nam 7.Cc gii php ngn chn s bin i kh hu ton cu

1.BIN I KH HU TON CU L G? Bin i kh hu tri t l s thay i ca h thng kh hu gm : Kh quyn Thu quyn Sinh quyn Thch quyn hin ti v trong tng lai bi cc nguyn nhn t nhin v nhn to

2.BIU HIN CA S BIN I KH HU TON CU

S nng ln ca kh quyn v tri t ni chung. S thay i thnh phn v cht lng kh quyn S dng cao mc nc bin do tan bng S di chuyn ca cc i kh hu tn ti hng nghn nm trn cc vng khc nhau ca tri t S thay i cng hot ng ca qu trnh hon lu kh
quyn, chu trnh tun hon nc trong t nhin v cc chu trnh sinh a ho khc. S thay i nng sut sinh hc ca cc h sinh thi, cht lng v thnh phn ca thu quyn, sinh quyn, cc a quyn.

3.NGUYN NHN CA S BIN I KH HU TON CU

Hiu ng nh knh l nguyn nhn chnh.

4. HIN TRNG CA BIN I KH HU TON CU

n nm 2005, hm lng CO2 o c l 379 ppm, tng kh cao so vi mc cn bng 280 ppm. Hm lng CO2 trong kh quyn tng lm cho b mt tri t nng ln. T 1906 2005 nhit b mt tri t tng 0,74 C. Hin tng bng tan Greenland t tc 65,6 kilmt khi, vt xa mc ti to bng 22,6 kilmt khi mt nm t tuyt ri. T gia th k 19 n nay, nhit tri t tng khong 0,6oC Sng bng ln nht trn nh Kenya (chu Phi) gim 92% khi lng Mc nc bin tng 10-25 cm dy cc khi bng ti Bc cc gim 40%.

Bo co ca y ban lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu (IPCC, thuc Lin Hip Quc) cng b ngy 17/11 cnh bo tnh trng Tri t nng ln l r rng v cc nc ngho s chu nh hng trc tin.

Hnh ng ca con ngi l nguyn nhn chnh gy nn tnh trng thay i kh hu n nm 2100, nhit trung bnh trn Tri t c th tng t 1,1-6,4 0 C so vi mc ca giai on 1980-1990 Mc nc bin s tng 18-59cm 11/12 nm qua l nhng nm nng nht k t nm 1850 Kh thi gy hiu ng nh knh tng 70% t nm 1970-2004 Thay i kh hu s nh hng ti nhng nc ngho trc, nhng c th cm nhn khp mi ni n nm 2020, khong 75-250 triu ngi chu Phi s thiu nc ngt;

 Cc th chu s chu cnh ngp lt C dn cc th ln ca chu s c nguy c chu cnh lt li do nc sng h dng cao Bc M s chu nhng t nng di hn vi nhit cao hn, cnh tranh v ngun nc s cng thng hn Khong 20-30% cc loi c bit n nay c nguy c tuyt chng nu nhit trung bnh ton cu tng 1,5-2,5 0 C Sn lng ma mng t loi cy trng ph thuc vo nc ma s ch cn mt na Mt an ninh lng thc nghim trng hn chu Phi Thi tit khc nghit s thng xuyn hn. Bo nhit i mnh hn, ha hon, hn hn v dch bnh nhiu hn Ngay c khi lng kh CO2 trong kh quyn c duy tr mc hin nay, mc nc bin s tip tc tng khong 0,4-1,4m, v nc bin vn m ln v lan rng.

5.HU QU CA BIN I KH HU TON CU

nh hng n s pht trin ca nhn loi:

Mi trng sng b thay i do bin i kh hu lm m rng vnh ai nhit i Trong 25 nm qua vnh ai nhit i ca Tri t m rng thm vi trm km v pha hai cc ca tri t, khin cho cc khu vc cn nhit i cng tr nn kh hn. T nm 1979, vnh ai p thp nhit i tng t 2 n 4,8 v . Kt qu l vnh ai nhit i m rng v pha cc Nam v Bc tng cng t 225 n 530 km. Nguy c thiu lng thc c bit cc nc ngho do t b suy thoi,cy trng thoi ho (in hnh l la-cy lng thc chnh ca phn ng dn c th gii) Nhiu cn bnh mi s xut hin,nhng cn bnh c s phc tp ln do mi trng b thay i

 Thiu nc sinh hot do bng tan v nc bin dng L lt xy ra thng xuyn do nc bin dng S dn t nn tng cao do hn hn v nc bin dng Cc cuc xung t gia cc nhm ngi tng do ti nguyn cn kit,cc lung di dn t do Nn khng b lan rng,tp trung c bit vo nhng nc m chng cho rng gy nn tnh trng bin i kh hu ton cu Khong cch giu ngho gia tng do gi lng thc b y ln cao,cc nc ngho chu nh hng ca bin i kh hu sm nht

 nh hng n mi trng t nhin:

Gim a dng sinh hc: Nhit Tri t tng cao ph v h thng

kh hu, gy ra nhng thay i v nhit v lng ma trong cc khu vc e do gim a dng sinh hc, s lng loi v a dng ngun gen. Nhng thay i trong chu k sng(thi im sinh sn) do ma xun n sm: nhit ma xun tng cao nh hng n thi im m chi ca cy ci,lt xc ca cn trng,thi im kt bn ca ng vt,thi gian lm t v ngun thc n nui con. Thay i phn b trn din rng ca chim, bm ,co : dch chuyn vng phn b ln pha Bc Thay i phn b theo cao Gu bc cc v chim cnh ct: hin tng m ln ton cu nh hng r rt hai vng cc (tc tan chy cc ni bng Nam cc,Bc cc m ln 2 ln so vi cc ni khc) thay i v s phn b v phong ph ca cc ng vt bin v HST vng cc.

Chim cnh ct gim s lng Gu bc cc ng trc nhiu nguy c nh thiu thc n,gim
trng lng c th,kh nng sinh sn ngy cng hn ch

 Cc loi lng c gim i vi tc cha tng c C voi,c khan him ngun thc n s thay i trong sinh sn ca cc sinh vt ph du do nc nc bin m ln Bnh dch v cc loi gy hi tng nhanh do kh hu m ln y mnh qu trnh pht trin v pht tn ca mm bnh,gim thi gian ng ng trong chu k hot ng ca mm bnh v thay i kh nng nhim bnh:
Loi b thng cnh cng ch mt mt nm cho ra i th h mi thay v 2 nm nh trc y mc tn ph cc cnh rng t tc gp i do chng gieo rc 1 loi nm lm cht cy

Ra c nguy c tuyt chng do hin tng thay i gii tnh ph thuc vo nhit .Nu nhit tng cao,s lng con ci s tng nhanh trong khi s con c gim mt cn bng v s lng ra ci v ra c tuyt chng San h cht do mt i loi cng sinh(to bin b tch ri khi san h khi nng mui,dch bnh v nhit b mt i dng tng),do nc bin dng (hin tng ty trng san h) Lng ma phn b khng u thm thc vt s thay i theonh hng n ng vt c lin quan v nguy c tuyt chng cc b

 nh hng n nn kinh t th gii:

Nng nghip:
Thiu t trng trt do b hoang mc ho hoc tip tc chuyn i mc ch
s dng khng c qui hoch hp l nng sut cy trng,sn lng nng sn gim ng k Ngun nc ti b nhim hoc cn kit do nc b nhim mn v hin tng hn hn thng xuyn. Cc ging cy trng,vt nui b thoi ho do nhit khng kh tng cao

Ng nghip:
gim

Cc loi thu hi sn suy kit do nc bin m ln sn lng khai thc Ngun nguyn liu cung cp t nng-lm-ng nghip gim,ngy cng khan
him Cng nghip khai thc du kh b cn tr do nc bin dng

Cng nghip:

Dch v:

Hot ng du lch b ngng tr do nc bin dng, a dng sinh hc gim. Quan h thng mi gia cc nc c th tr nn cng thng hn v th
trng th gii s khan him v cc ngun ngun nguyn liu. Giao thng vn ti ng bin gp kh khn do nc bin dng

6.BIN I KH HU TON CU TC NG N VIT NAM

Theo nh gi ca cc t chc khoa hc quc t, Vit Nam l mt trong 5 nc trn th gii b nh hng nghim trng ca bin i kh hu (BKH) v nc bin dng, trong vng ng bng sng Hng v ng bng sng Cu Long s b ngp chm nng nht. Theo cnh bo ca U ban Lin chnh ph v BKH (IPCC) n nm 2100, nu mc nc bin dng cao 1m s nh hng n 5% t ai ca VN, 10% dn s, tc ng n 7% sn xut nng nghip, gim 10% GDP (ngun: Dagupta.et.al.2007), ring sn xut kinh t bin s suy gim 1/3 (ngun UNDP).

 Bin i kh hu lm cho lng ma bin i khng nht qun, c ni

tng, ni gim: H Ni v Thnh ph H Ch Minh, lng ma t nm 1940 v trc cao hn trung bnh nhiu nm cc tnh Nam Trung b, lng ma c xu th gim, tnh trng kh hn tng ln. Lng ma ln nht trong 24 gi cng tng ln trong nhng thp k gn y Nhng t rt ko di lm cht hng ngn gia sc Nhng trn lt ngy cng d di, lin tip xy ra khu vc pha Bc v min Trung. Hin tng triu cng Thnh ph H Ch Minh ngy cng nghim trng v din bin phc tp. Hin tng nhim mn vng ca sng din ra vi tc nhanh c bit ng bng sng Cu Long. Ma kh Ty Nguyn v cc tnh min Trung ngy cng su sc Cc t bo bt thng b vo khu vc pha Nam gy thit hi ln v ngi v ca

7.BIN PHP KHC PHC

BIN I KH HU TON CU

Thng 2/2007, Lin Hp Quc (LHQ) v Hip hi

Nghin cu khoa hc Sigma Xi cng b bn bo co v vn bin i kh hu, chun b cho cuc hp ca u ban LHQ v pht trin bn vng (CSD). Cuc hp ny nhm a ra k hoch ngn chn tnh trng bin i kh hu thiu kim sot v thch nghi vi s thay i ang din ra tng ngy.

 Bn bo co vi tiu i mt vi bin i kh hu: ngn chn nhng g khng th kim sot v kim sot nhng g khng th ngn chn do mt nhm cc nh khoa hc ni ting n t nhiu nc trn th gii thc hin trong vng 2 nm. Ni dung bo co em li mt ci nhn khoa hc tng qut v thay i kh hu, tm quan trng ca vic chng li cc ri ro cng nh nhng bin php nhm gim nh v thch nghi vi n. c bit, bn bo co nhn mnh tnh nghim trng v cp thit ca nhng n lc ton cu nhm phn ng li trc thch thc to ln m bin i kh hu gy ra. Tng lai s c hai xu hng khc nhau r rt. Xu hng th nht lm gia tng nh hng nghim trng do thay i kh hu. Xu hng th 2 s hng n gim cht thi nguy hi, to ra nhng c hi pht trin kinh t, gim ngho i trn ton cu, ngn chn s xung cp ca h sinh thi, gp phn vo mc tiu pht trin bn vng Mun thay i, nhn loi phi nhanh chng phi hp hnh ng tt c mi cp khc nhau trong x hi. Khng cn thi gian tr hon.

Ni dung c bn ca bo co: Nhit trung bnh ton cu tng vt mc 2-2,50C so vi nm 1750, thi k tin cng nghip, s lm tng nguy c gy tc ng qu mc. ngn chn iu ny, cn phi n nh mt kh CO2 quy i mc thp hn 450-500 ppm (so vi khong 380 ppm CO2 tng ng hin nay). Nh vy, thi im CO2 tng cao nht nm trong giai on 2015 - 2020, sau gim dn v xung cn 1/3 vo nm 2100. Cng ngh m ra nhng c hi ln gim bt kh thi c hi v mang li nhng li ch kinh t, x hi, mi trng khc, k c vic t nhng mc tiu pht trin thin nin k do LHQ ra. lm vy, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch phi c nhng bc i khn trng v c th: Ci thin h thng giao thng vn ti bng cc bin php nh: s dng cc tiu chun kim nh cht lng phng tin giao thng, thu nhin liu, u i ph ng k i vi cc phng tit kim nhin liu hoc s dng nhin liu mi. Nng cao cht lng cc to nh chung c v cc trung tm thng mi bng vic ban hnh lut, quy nh lin quan n xy dng, chun ha cc thit b, khuyn khch nhng ngi xy dng v qun l t ai c hiu qu, u t vo nhng d n s dng hiu qu nng lng. Tng cng s dng nhin liu sinh hc bng cch khuyn khch nh sn xut v ngui tiu dng, chun ho cc ngun vn u t cho nng lng. Khn trng thit k v trin khai nhng nh my nhit in c kh nng lp t thm thit b tch ring ngun nhim CO2.

Thay i kh hu v nhng nh hng ca n , ang din ra v s cn gia tng ngay c khi cc n lc nhm ngn chn n c hiu qu. Cng ng quc t phi n lc hn na thch nghi vi nhng thay i kh ngn chn v cn tip din trong h thng kh hu ton cu, bng cch: Thc y chin lc d bo/i ph v qun l ngun ti nguyn thin nhin i mt vi iu kin kh hu trong tng lai c d bo l s khc xa vi nhng g din ra trong vng 100 nm qua. c bit ch trng n kh nng thch ng ca ngi ngho v nhng quc gia d b tn thng nht khi b nh hng ca thay i kh hu tn cng. Quy hoch v xy dng nhng thnh ph c th thch nghi v phc hi nhanh chng sau thm ha. Cng c cc t chc khu vc, quc gia, ton cu i mt vi nhng thm ha lin quan n thi tit v s gia tng s ngi t nn do thay i kh hu. Cng ng quc t thng qua LHQ v cc t chc a phng c th ng vai tr quan trong vic thc y hnh ng ngn chn nhng g khng th kim sot v kim sot nhng g khng th ngn chn bng vic: Gip cc nc ang pht trin v cc nc trong thi k chuyn i nn kinh t u t pht trin cng ngh nng lng mi v s dng nng lng hiu qu. Thc y m phn xy dng mt khung chng trnh quc t mi quan tm n cc vn thay i kh hu v pht trin bn vng. Tuyn truyn, gio dc v cc c hi, li ch khi thc hin cc bin php ngn chn bin i kh hu v cc phng php thch nghi.

*** Vi tm quan trng ca mi quan h gia a dng sinh hc v bin i kh hu, cc gii php cn tp trung vo: - Bo v cc loi ng, thc vt nhy cm. - Bo v cc mi trng sng gip cc loi thch nghi dn. - Nng cao nhn thc v mi lin h gia a dng sinh hc v bin i kh hu. - Xem xt yu t a dng sinh hc trong qu trnh lp k hoch thch nghi v hn ch bin i kh hu.