10

11 2012

:
:

tstamatiou@eurobank.gr

tsabaniotis@eurobank.gr

2/3


.

30 .

.

26%
27 .

Eurobank
Ergasias
..
(Eurobank)



.



. Eurobank




,


.

,

Eurobank.


Eurobank.
(
)
, ,

,

. ,
,
Eurobank



.
, , ..

.

. ,
, ..
,

.

1150

1050
950

1: 10-

:
(10/12/2012)
23/11/2012

18/10/2012

850
750
650

2800
2600
2400
2200

.
Draghi

2000
1800

550

1600

450

1400

350

1200

1/7/12

1/8/12

1/9/12

1/10/12

1/11/12

1/12/12

( )

: Bloomberg

T 10, 11 2012

<120% 2022).
.

30 .

30 .. 4,0 .


.

7 2012

30 .
07/12/2012
26 . 10 .
16 .
.

1 62,3 . PSI
20122.
30 .
10.2 .


11,0
2020.

(
).

.

.
,
2/3
5
.




. ,




.

(
). 3 10/12/2012
17.00 11/12/2012.

Eurogroup .


13/12/2012 34.7 .
43.7 4.
13/12/2012
.


(

.
.

10-
10/12/2012 1250,2 ,
PSI 2012
( 1).

.
.
( )
.

,
.

62,3 . 20
30-.
3,0 .
2

(PSI) 2012.

7 (04/12/2012)
http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/Reports/7MERES_OIKONOMIA_0412201
2v.pdf

34,0 .
62,3 . .

9,3 . ( 43.7 .)
2013
.

T 10, 11 2012

.


2013
9.3 43.7 .

(
, ,
).

.
(
2013)
( 3,5 . )
2012
2013.
,
2012

.
10.6 .
2012 ( 34.4 .)
.
27/11/20126

2.2 .

- 2012,
9,4 .
53,4% .
2.3 .
-4.2 .
2011.
2013 2012 -6,6%
-7,5% (IMF Fiscal
Monitor (09/10/2012)).
2013

(34.4 .) 43.7 . 2
.

, .
7,

, :

- 2012.
- 1,5 . ,
6 . 2011 ( -75,0%
).
- 2012 -12,9 .,
-21,5 . 2011 ( -40,0%
).

8,7 . 2012
8,6 . 2012
.

(4,6 .) (1,9 .).
9.5 .
8.7 .
0.8 . .

(.3871/2010).

-
.

31-12-2011
.

2012 (
)
.

7 (27/11/2012)
http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/Reports/7MERES_OIKONOMIAqw_2711
2012.pdf

0,2 . - 2012

http://www.minfin.gr/portal/el/resource/contentObject/id/1c86cf3a-19ca4a29-adf0-ca8c376f243c

T 10, 11 2012

. ,



40.000 2009.


.

:
2012,
.
.. 26%
( ),
27
. (.
2012: 25,3%) (. 2011: 18,9%).
1.265 .
3.661,2 . (
).
901,2 . . 2008 (363,9 .),
247,7%.
883,1 . 3.661,2 . .


.
, 30,1% 22,9% ,
-27. (15-24
)
57,6% 22,3% . 2008.
-27

. .
2012 11,6% (. 2012: 11,5%, . 2011: 10,3%).

.


(.. ). ,



.


(
, ).

11 2012:
o
.
.
o
3,4 .
.

34,4
.
/.
o
.


.
o Eurogroup

.

.
13 2012:


.
34.4 .
.

2:
(4/1998 9/2012, . , %
)
%

30

25
20
15

-12

-11

-10

-08

-09

-07

-05

-06

-03

-04

-02

-01

-01

-00

-99

10

-98

: 34.4 .

: .., EUROSTAT

: 2012

1,0% . 2011
0,5% . 2012.
. 2011 . 2012
(. 2010 . 2011)
1,6%.

T 10, 11 2012

. 2011. . - . 2012 3,8%

2011.

1,8%, ,
5,3%,
(
) 1,8%,
1,3%.

- , ,

.
( )
2008 ( 5).

,
39,4%
, 1,25
. ,

, ,
,
0,31, 0,23 0,21 .

, , , ,
.

. 2012 0,4%,
2,2% ( 3).


: . 2012
: 0,3% ( 4).
0,9%
2012.

-1

-05
-05
-05
-05
-06
-06
-06
-06
-07
-07
-07
-07
-08
-08
-08
-08
-09
-09
-09
-09
-10
-10
-10
-10
-11
-11
-11
-11
-12
-12
-12
-12

: .., EUROSTAT

4:
-
(
, . 2005 . 2012, % )
6

5
4
3

2
1
0

-05
-05
-05
-05
-06
-06
-06
-06
-07
-07
-07
-07
-08
-08
-08
-08
-09
-09
-09
-09
-10
-10
-10
-10
-11
-11
-11
-11
-12
-12
-12
-12

-1

: .., EUROSTAT

-12

-12

-11

-11

-10

-10

-09

-09

-08

-08

-07

-07

-06

-06

-05

: ..

2012. .

.
. 2012 2,73 .,
10,1% . 2011 (2,48 .).
1,53 ., 13,8% (.
2011: 1,34 .). 1,21 .,
5,8% (. 2011: 1,14 .). 10 ..
2012
11,24 . ( 6), 19,6%
2011 (13,97 .).
6,9% (2012: 25,27 ., 2011:
27,14 .), 6,6% (2012:
14,03 ., 2011: 13,17 .).

2
1

-05

: ..

-04

-04

-02

6 %

-03

3:
( , . 2005 .
2012, % )

-03

4 %
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12

-02

5:
( - , . 2002-. 2012,

, % )

:
2012 2,0%

T 10, 11 2012

6:
( & ,
10 .-., . )
.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

:

2012 . 2012 ( 7).
79 (. 2012: 75,8)
. 2011 (82,6).
. ,
: )

(. 2012: 80,4, . 2012: 81)
, )
58,3
. 51,1 . 2012,
(. 2011: 37,1), )

56,2 . 2012 51,1 .
2012 (. 2011:
59,7), )
. 2012 52,5
, )
(
).
(. 2012: 85,7)
(. 2012: 84,3),
. 2012 (94,5).
. 2011.

8:
(. 2000 . 2012, )
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-50
-60
-70
-80

120
110

80

70

-12

-11

-11

-10

-09

-09

-12

-08

-07

-07

-05

-06

-04

-05

-04

-03

-02

-02

-01

-01

-00

-00

-08

60

-12

-11

-12

-11

-09

-10

-08
-09

-08

-07

-07

-05

-06

-04

-05

-04

-03

-02

-00

130

90

-90
-100

7:
(. 2000 . 2012, 1990-2011=100,
)

100

-40

-02

-01

-01

: ..

-00

10
7
4
1
-2
-5
-8
-11
-14
-17
-20
-23
-26
-29
-32
-35
-38

:
. 2012 -74,1
-77,5 . 2012.
. 2012 -26,9
-25,7 . 2012 ( 8).
. 77%

12
, , 14%
.

12 .
(72%)
12
,
. 2012.
.
, 46% ( 60%)

, 22% ( 15%)
21% ( 15%)
. 10%
.

T 10, 11 2012

1:
2011-12

2011

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

-6.9 (Q3 12)

-6.6
169.5
1.0 (11/ 12)
0.2 (10/12)
26.0 (09/12)
79.0 (11/12)

-4.0 (Q3 11)

2.9 (11/11)
1.5 (10/11)
18.9 (09/11)
74.0 (11/11)

-7.1
-9.1
165.3
3.3
1.3
21.0
72.8

-4.9
-10.8
145.0
4.7
1.4
14.8
75.1

-3.1
-15.8
129.4
1.2
1.1
10.2
76.3

-0.2
-9.9
113.0
4.2
4.2
8.9
76.1

3.5
-6.8
107.4
2.9
2.9
8.9
94.9

-4.3 (09/12)
-9.1 (Q2 12)
-12.1 (Q2 12)

0.6 (09/11)
-0.6 (Q2 11)
-5.2 (Q2 11)

0.3
-6.0
-6.0

3.1
-1.2
-2.7

1.0
6.9
5.3

0.9
7.1
2.4

0.9
3.6
3.4

-8.4 (Q3 12)

-16.1 (09/12)
-47.2 (11/12)
-74.1 (11/12)
-40.1 (11/12)

--3.5 (Q3 11)

--9.7 (08/11)
16.5 (11/11)
-82.3 (11/11)
-34.9 (11/11)

-6.9
-8.7
-31.0
-74.1
-35.4

-3.5
-6.9
-35.6
-63.4
-33.7

-3.2
-9.3
-17.8
-45.7
-15.4

-0.2
-1.4
-4.5
-46.0
14.2

3.0
2.3
4.5
-28.5
34.2

2.0 (10/12)

-13.0 (10/11)

-11.4

-5.9

-6.8

-8.2

2.0

65.8 (10/12)

67.4

68.6

70.5

75.9

77.0

(% ..)*
(% , 2012)
(% , 2012)
(% ..)
(% ..)
(% . , , )
( , )

(% ..)
(% ..)
(% ..)


. (% ..)
(% ..)
( , )
( , )

(% ..)
( ,
)
( , )
(PMI) ( , )
&
. (% ..)
(% ..)
(% ..)
Private building permits volume (% .., . .)
Construction confidence ( , )
( )
(% . . .)
(% .., . .)
(% .., . .)
. (% , . .)
() **
(.., . .)
(% . ., . .)
(% . ., . .)
(% . ., . .)
(% . ., . .)
(% . ., . .)

(% . .)
(% . .)
(% . .)
(% . .)
(% . .)
- (NPLs) (% )
(% ) ***
&

****
( , 2007-2011)
FTSE/ASE 20 ( , 2007-2011)
( , 2007-2011)
Baltic Dry ( , 2007-2011)
,
10- ( , 2007-2011)
5- ( , 2007-2011)
2- ( , 2007-2011)
5- CDS ( , 2007-2011)
()
26 (%, , )
13 (%, , )

-17.6 (11/12)
41.8 (11/12)

66.0 (10/11)
-23.6 (11/11)
40.9 (11/11)

-20.6
43.6

-22.5
43.8

-28.4
45.4

-5.9
50.4

5.2
53.8

-19.5 (Q3 12)

-33.9(Q3 12)
3.1 (Q3 12)
-49.2(07/12)
-56.7 (11/12)

-15.3 (Q3 11)

-18.0 (Q3 11)
-25.3 (Q3 11)
-14.0 (07/11)
-70.2 (11/11)

-14.3
-23.4
-18.9
-39.4
-68.3

-9.2
-18.4
-5.9
-24.1
-55.4

-23.1
-20.2
18.2
-26.8
-39.5

-5.5
-25.8
44.3
-17.3
-9.6

13.1
-5.8
-5.5
-5.0
-9.2

-74.1 (09/12)
0.6 (09/12)
-16.5 (09/12)
205.4 (Q2 12)

-8.3 (09/11)
8.1 (09/11)
-5.8 (09/11)
187.3 (Q2 11)

-8.3
-2.7
-8.6
171.2

-11.0
-7.6
13.8
177.6

-25.8
-10.6
-29.4
178.4

6.7
2.8
13.3
155.7

37.2
-0.3
18.3
138.5

7.9 (10/12)
3.7 (10/12)
13.3 (10/12)
-10.4 (10/12)
-9.3 (10/12)
-13.1 (10/12)

12.3 (10/11)
11.8 (10/11)
13.9 (10/11)
-11.6 (10/11)
-7.1 (10/11)
-19.7 (10/11)

37.0
8.1
62.2
-10.1
-7.3
-32.7

11.6
10.4
13.5
-3.3
-12.9
16.6

-18.1
-20.1
-14.6
-19.2
-17.4
-32.7

4.5
4.1
3.5
11.2
5.4
10.9

3.8
25.0
-20.9
9.3
16.4
0.6

-4.8 (10/12)
-5.6 (10/12)
-4.1 (10/12)
-3.7 (10/12)
-5.2 (10/12)
21.4 (Q2 2012)

-2.2 (10/11)
--0.4 (10/11)
-3.6 (10/11)
-2.4 (10/11)
-6.7 (10/11)
-

-3.6
-2.5
-4.3
-2.6
-5.6
-

0.0
1.1
-1.2
-0.3
-4.2
10.4

4.2
5.2
3.1
3.7
2.0
7.7

15.9
18.9
12.6
11.2
16.0
5.0

21.5
20.8
22.2
21.5
22.4
4.5

118.9 (10/12)
55.3 (10/12)

117.2 (08/11)
53.4 (08/11)

143.1
52.4

113.4
52.0

107.8
51.7

107.2
50.3

96.7
46.7

852.6
296.9
246.9
937.0

680.4
264.9
262.9
1738.0

1413.9
663.1
1251.0
1773.0

2196.2
1125.4
2661.7
3005.0

1786.5
932.5
1899.4
774.0

5178.8
2752.5
7296.4
9143.0

1250.2
-

3313.4
5163.1
13408.3
10231.4

950.9
1163.1
1134.4
1037.3

238.7
254.2
211.9
282.8

227.4
264.3
240.1
238.0

32.2
21.2
26.8
-

4.41 (06/11/2012)
4.20 (13/11/2012)

4.95
4.68

4.82
4.10

0.35
0.59

5.09
4.46

4.18
4.14

: , , ,, ECOWIN, AMECO, Bloomberg, Eurobank

* - . . 2007-2010
..
** - .. .

*** 2012 2013-16 ( 194.0 .). 2007-2011 AMECO.

10/12/2012

**** , BDI

(PSI) 12/03/2012.

T 10, 11 2012

,
Eurobank&

&

:

:
: G10
:

:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:

Eurobank .., . 20 & 5, 10557 , +30.210.333 .7365, fax: +30.210.333.7687, e-mail: Research@eurobank.gr

Eurobank

http://www.eurobank.gr/research
New Europe:

& :

Global Economic & Market Outlook:

: http://www.eurobank.gr/research
twitter: http://twitter.com/Eurobank